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A. C. Ruane

Publications and source records attributed to A. C. Ruane.

Systemic Risk

Systemic risk is the name given to impacts that spread within and across systems and sectors (e.g. ecosystems, health, infrastructure and the food sector) via the movements of people, goods, capital and information within and across boundaries (e.g. regions, countries and continents). The spread of these impacts can lead to potentially existential consequences and system collapse across a range of time horizons. Globalization contributes to systemic risk affecting people worldwide. The impacts of climate change or COVID-19 show how the challenges of addressing systemic risk go beyond conventional risk management and governance. Critical system interdependencies, amplified by underlying vulnerabilities, highlight that there is a growing need to better understand cascading impacts, systemic risks and the possible political (governance) and societal responses. This includes improving our understanding of the root causes of systemic risk, both biophysical and socio-economic, and related information needs. Addressing contemporary challenges in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals.

systemic risk

The Past and Future Changes in Climate of the Rice-Wheat Cropping Zone in Punjab, Pakistan

Agriculture is ranked top among Pakistan economic sectors vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. The agricultural production system is directly affected by weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall) that are projected to change in future (following increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses). Although Climatic extremes such as drought, floods and heat waves, are expected to increase with detrimental consequences for agriculture and livestock production, yet changes in mean climates also pose challenges to sustainable development. This study presents climate change results for five districts within the major rice-wheat productivity zone of Punjab province in Pakistan. The results are focused on RCP8.5 mid-century (2040-2069) scenarios derived from five global climate models (GCMs) output and the Kharif (June-October) and Rabi (November-April) seasons. Analysis of recent historical weather data of Sialkot and Sheikhupura districts shows an increase in minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures and a large variation in rainfall. This temperature change and variability in rainfall are expected to enhance further as we approach 2050s. The mean maximum temperature is projected to increase by 2-2.5 ºC during the rice growing (Kharif) season and 2.4-2.7ºC during the wheat growing (Rabi) season. Rainfall during the rice growing season is more uncertain, with projections indicating an increase of 25%-35 % in the study region, while a minimal change is expected during the Rabi season. Climax of the rice growing season corresponds with the projected increase in monsoon intensity, leaving no doubt about the crop water demand satisfaction. However, a simultaneous increase in the day and night temperature may affect the growth and development of some critical phenological stages and thus could impact final yield.

Climate Change