Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Agnew, C. E..
Spectrum management, models for evaluating communication systems, the communications regulatory environment, expert prediction and consensus, remote sensing, and manned space operations research are discussed.
Public sector R and D evaluation, NASA technology transfer, market-oriented approaches to national science policy, and markets with implications for technology transfer are discussed.
Spectrum management, models for evaluating communications systems, and implications of communications regulations for NASA are considered as major parts of communications policy. Marketing LANDSAT products in developing countries, a political systems analysis of LANDSAT, and private financing and operation of the space operations center (space station) are discussed. Investment requirements, risks, government support, and other primary business and management considerations are examined.
Time shared systems permit the fixed costs of computing resources to be spread over large numbers of users. However, bottleneck results in the theory of closed queueing networks can be used to show that this economy of scale will be offset by the increased congestion that results as more users are added to the system. If one considers the total costs, including the congestion cost, there is an optimal number of users for a system which equals the saturation value usually used to define system capacity.
The Communications Act of 1934, which regulates the United States telecommunications industry, is becoming less able to deal with the changes brought by modern technology. Therefore, proposals are being made to restructure the industry. Breaking up AT&T into smaller firms would have only minor effects, since its ratio of R and D to sales has been near the median for large telephone companies. Restructuring AT&T into subsidiaries dealing at arms' length might cause a reordering of priorities toward more directly marketable and useful products, but too extensive a break-up could endanger Bell Labs' commitment to basic research. Regulation leads a firm to ignore true social value of possible products, expand into low profit markets, and favor capital-intensive over labor-intensive innovation. If regulatory lag occurs, a firm will produce cost-reducing innovation in order to increase its profit.
At present, the Federal Communications Commission assigns radio licenses following a determination of the public interest. Whenever mutually conflicting license applications are filed, the Commission holds a comparative hearing. This assignment mechanism is criticized as cumbersome and unrealiable, and three alternatives are proposed: increasing the available spectrum, and either auctions or lotteries of radio licenses. An analysis is presented of the present system and these alternative arrangments for assigning rights to the frequency spectrum for the Multipoint Distribution Service (MDS). Although MDS is a relatively minor radio service, it serves as a prototype for message distribution services with a large potential for use in business communications. Moreover, the way in which the initial batch of MDS licenses was assigned provides a unique opportunity for empirical work on the economics of the licensing process.
For each of the methods identified, a theoretical basis is provided and an illustrative example is described. The example includes sufficient realism and detail to enable an analyst to conduct an evaluation of other systems. The methods discussed in the study include equal capability cost analysis, consumers' surplus, and statistical decision theory.
Methods for estimating the economic costs and benefits of the transmission-reception and reception-action segments of a disaster warning system (DWS) are described. Methods were identified for the evaluation of the transmission and reception portions of alternative disaster warning systems. Example analyses using the methods identified were performed.