Engineering topics

Aida Sharif Rohani

Publications and source records attributed to Aida Sharif Rohani.

9 records

NASA NTRS2022

An ODE-Fitting Approach to Estimate Critical Aircraft Performance Parameters for Trajectory Prediction

Ground-based decision support tools (DST) in air traffic management (ATM) typically perform trajectory prediction based on aircraft performance model (APM) parameters, but some or all of these parameters might not be readily available. In particular, the three critical parameters required for trajectory prediction are the thrust setting, drag coefficients, and takeoff weight of the aircraft. Unfortunately, these parameters are coupled and appear together in physics-based kinetic models. Past approaches utilize data from a specific phase of flight (climb, level flight or descent), where one or more of the parameters are assumed to be known and estimate the remaining unknown parameters. This approach introduces bias/errors and also does not extend to scenarios where all of the above parameters are not known with sufficient accuracy. This paper is the first of its kind to propose a generalized framework for simultaneous estimation of all three critical APM parameters (thrust, drag, and mass). The proposed approach utilizes data from both the climb and descent phases and fits the ordinary differential equation for altitude in each phase using historical trajectory data available from radar tracks or ADS-B. The approach yields a set of optimized APM parameters that are best suited to fit each historical flight record. The methodology is applied on on sample flights from three different aircraft types, and the results demonstrate low fit error and consequently will yield a high level of prediction accuracy.

trajectory prediction, aircraft performance model,↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An ODE-Fitting Approach to Estimate Critical Aircraft Performance Parameters for Trajectory Prediction

trajectory prediction↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcribing Air Traffic Control System Command Center Planning Telecons Using Cloud-Based Automatic Speech Recognition

This paper addresses the challenge of using Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) technology to transcribe regular teleconferences that happen between FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) planners, stakeholders and air users. These planning teleconferences (aka telecons or planning webinars) are an integral part of managing air traffic in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). In particular, the meetings facilitate the creation and modification of various traffic management initiatives (TMIs), that are used to regulate the flow of air traffic. This is typically a human intensive process, requiring specialists to listen to the entire meeting audio (10-20 minutes duration) and inferring the state of the NAS (e.g., weather phenomenon) that was discussed. It would be advantageous to have digital transcripts of the audio and have useful information (e.g., related to TMIs) automatically extracted from the transcripts. In this regard, we are exploring the adoption of state-of-the-art speech to text and Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools that will achieve our objective of digitizing the webinar audio. Unfortunately, the highly technical phraseology present in the audio and limited data availability for model building make ASR difficult. To overcome this challenge, we have taken the critical first step in creating a human transcription dataset from ~20 hours of speech in the ATCSCC audio with the help of subject matter experts. A novelty of our work is the creation of a ground truth transcription dataset for ATCSCC teleconference webinars, which is particularly important for Aviation domain-specific NLP tasks. Using Microsoft Speech Studio, a cloud-based ASR platform, we have fine-tuned the English pre-trained ASR models (available in speech studio) and achieved an average word error rate (WER) of 6.81%. The baseline ASR also provides a digital version of each planning webinar, making it accessible and text-searchable for future references. Additionally, the transcriptions can serve as a bridge between raw audio data and a range of text-based NLP tasks, such as named entity recognition (NER) and intent classification, potentially enhancing the digital footprint of the webinars and other connected data sources. Our work has several potential applications. Firstly, the transcriptions can be analyzed to understand the complex decision process of creating, implementing and modifying TMIs and may also contribute to TMI prediction services. Secondly, our dataset and model can be used to develop more accurate ASR systems for aviation-specific language, which can bring about digital communication in the aviation industry (and aid current “voice only” communications, which are inherently error-prone). Lastly, the transcriptions themselves can be used as a valuable resource for training other NLP models.

Stephen S. B. Clarke↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Approach for Aircraft Performance Model Parameter Estimation for Trajectory Prediction Applications

Inaccurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools (DST) is a major concern in air traffic management (ATM). Aircraft trajectory prediction tools rely on a simplified point-mass aircraft performance model (APM) to make their predictions. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the APM’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to DSTs. Current ATM research focuses on improving the estimate of some APM parameters by freezing all other coefficients. This simplified approach introduces unwanted sources of bias and negatively impacts the accuracy of the performance model. In this paper, we apply machine learning (ML) techniques for the simultaneous prediction of three key APM parameters (two drag coefficients and the initial aircraft weight). To accomplish this, we employ an ordinary differential equation (ODE) fitting approach to generate optimized APM parameter labels customized to each individual flight record. Subsequently, we train ML models to capture the relationship between the historical data and the optimized APM parameters. Two different ML model solutions are applied and APM coefficients are predicted for unseen flights. The results indicate that the ML models are able to capture the relationship between APM parameters and flight-related features with good accuracy.

trajectory prediction, machine learning, aircraft ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Understanding Data Requirements for Developing Automatic Speech Recognition Systems for Air Traffic Control

In recent years, the application of automatic speech recognition has gained popularity across diverse industries, including aviation. Given the many applications focusing on transcribing air traffic control and management communication, this paper explores the training of OpenAI's Whisper model across multiple existing public and private air traffic control voice datasets in an effort to improve robustness. Combining roughly 60+ hours of various air traffic datasets, our goal is to train a unified Whisper model and expect an average word error rate reduction across testing datasets. Furthermore, this work aims to understand the data quantity requirements for achieving state-of-the art results by comprehensively training Whisper on varying dataset sizes. This work has the potential to improve automatic speech recognition performance across the domain, improve understanding of the quantity of data required by an aviation speech recognition system, and lastly provide metrics to compare and improve upon in future research.

ATC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Contextualizing Air Traffic Management Conversations using Natural Language Understanding

Efficient management of air traffic and mitigation of delays depend on extracting actionable information from unstructured data, such as dialogues from the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA’s) Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) telecons. This study presents a pipeline utilizing Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods for Intent Classification (IC) and Slot Filling (SF) to identify and extract Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) from aviation-specific dialogues. We leveraged DeBERTa, a pre-trained transformer model, and fine-tuned it to the nuances of the aviation domain. Despite challenges posed by annotation complexities, the IC model achieved promising results with a weighted average F1-score of 0.81. Our results are close to those of human annotators, which demonstrates the model’s strong alignment with human-level performance. The SF model also showed strong performance, achieving a weighted F1-score of 0.97, which demonstrates its effectiveness in accurately predicting key slots. Our analysis revealed limitations in handling less frequent intents and slot labels due to data sparsity, motivating future efforts to adopt joint IC-SF modeling and data augmentation strategies. This research highlights the potential of domain-specific NLP to streamline decision-making in the aviation industry and improve the management of TMIs.

Air Traffic Control Management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ground Stop Adjuster: A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) play a crucial role in balancing demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). In current practice, traffic management coordinators (TMCs) determine and issue TMIs and recent research has explored the use of machine learning tools to aid the TMCs. However, most studies have primarily focused on a particular type of TMI, i.e., Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) due to their higher rate of occurrence and longer duration. This study investigates a machine learning approach for monitoring and adjusting a different type of TMI, i.e., Ground Stop (GS), aiming to assist human decision-makers with accurate, consistent, and timely recommendations. Using data from three major airports in the New York metroplex, we evaluated models that predict GS parameters, such as duration and scope. Our results demonstrate that using data from all airports in the NY metroplex and increasing feature granularity improve the prediction accuracy of the ML models.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗