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Alfano, Salvatore

Publications and source records attributed to Alfano, Salvatore.

Relevance of the American Statistical Society's Warning on P-Values for Conjunction Assessment

On March 7, 2016, the American Statistical Association (ASA) issued an online editorial paper on the "context, process, and purpose of p-values." According to the paper, "the statement articulates in non-technical terms a few select principles that could improve the conductor interpretation of quantitative science, according to widespread consensus in the statistical community." This "consensus" statement was accompanied by 21 "commentaries" expressing a diversity of opinions among the panel of experts ASA convened. In the present work, we express our view that the ASA p-value warning has relevance to the space object Conjunction Assessment (CA) community.

p-values↗

Design of Spacecraft Missions to Remove Multiple Orbital Debris Objects

The amount of hazardous debris in Earth orbit has been increasing, posing an evergreater danger to space assets and human missions. In January of 2007, a Chinese ASAT test produced approximately 2600 pieces of orbital debris. In February of 2009, Iridium 33 collided with an inactive Russian satellite, yielding approximately 1300 pieces of debris. These recent disastrous events and the sheer size of the Earth orbiting population make clear the necessity of removing orbital debris. In fact, experts from both NASA and ESA have stated that 10 to 20 pieces of orbital debris need to be removed per year to stabilize the orbital debris environment. However, no spacecraft trajectories have yet been designed for removing multiple debris objects and the size of the debris population makes the design of such trajectories a daunting task. Designing an efficient spacecraft trajectory to rendezvous with each of a large number of orbital debris pieces is akin to the famous Traveling Salesman problem, an NP-complete combinatorial optimization problem in which a number of cities are to be visited in turn. The goal is to choose the order in which the cities are visited so as to minimize the total path distance traveled. In the case of orbital debris, the pieces of debris to be visited must be selected and ordered such that spacecraft propellant consumption is minimized or at least kept low enough to be feasible. Emergent Space Technologies, Inc. has developed specialized algorithms for designing efficient tour missions for near-Earth asteroids that may be applied to the design of efficient spacecraft missions capable of visiting large numbers of orbital debris pieces. The first step is to identify a list of high priority debris targets using the Analytical Graphics, Inc. SOCRATES website and then obtain their state information from Celestrak. The tour trajectory design algorithms will then be used to determine the itinerary of objects and v requirements. These results will shed light on how many debris pieces can be visited for various amounts of propellant, which launch vehicles can accommodate such missions, and how much margin is available for debris removal system payloads.

Barbee, Brent W.↗