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Alinda Mashiku

Publications and source records attributed to Alinda Mashiku.

Early Information Parameter-Set Analysis for Satellite Close Approaches using Machine Learning

Understanding orbital mechanics is essential in space flight and navigation applications, and leveraging modern force models for flight path projection remains an important aspect in space mission design and operation. However, force models do not capture all the dynamics or perturbations in the space environment and thus are subject to errors in predicting the state vectors. The further out the predicted miss distance between spacecraft is from the time of closest approach (TCA), the larger the propagated errors in the predicted miss distance at TCA is. The dependency on these force models for spacecraft flight state prediction calls for a more reliable method that can quantify, or even reduce, these propagated errors. With recent advances in the field artificial intelligence, specifically in machine and deep learning algorithms, a model that implements these approaches can improve on the modern force model approach. The goal for this work is to provide an early-information decision-making threshold, in order to prioritize risk assessment implementation, given the ongoing increase of space objects. In analyzing the relationship of several parameters from conjunction data messages(CDMs) and solar information, early information becomes viable in miss distance prediction with unsupervised learning techniques, which learn the parameters that are linked together with miss distance and probability of collision (Pc) variables. Another approach implemented for identifying relationships within CDMs is supervised learning, in which a shallow neural network binary classifier learns to distinguish events with Pc values¡108. These parameters detected in the unsupervised process are then applied to a regression neural network, which predicts the miss distance at TCA for a specific event within a given uncertainty bound. For the regression neural network, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is implemented, which yields memory about each time step in an event. Using an LSTM network, the model learns to predict miss distance within 0.2km of the value measured at TCA. Although there is a limited amount of "close miss" data to train a network, the network learns to associate parameters, like large energy dissipation rates with the secondary object, with an elevated Pc

Brianna I. Robertson↗

Exploring the Low-Thrust Transfer Design Space in an Ephemeris Model via Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

Multi-Reward Proximal Policy Optimization (MRPPO) is a multi-objective reinforcement learning algorithm used to train multiple policies to uncover solutions within a multi-objective solution space. MRPPO is used in this paper to train policies to construct low-thrust transfers for a SmallSat from the vicinity of L2 to an L5 short period orbit in the Sun-Earth-Moon system. First, the policies are trained in this scenario in the circular restricted three-body problem. This information is used to initialize the policies before training in a higher-fidelity ephemeris model; a process known as transfer learning. The recovered segments of the solution space will be compared to fundamental dynamical structures to both examine the results of MRPPO in this complex design scenario and explore the effectiveness of transfer learning.

Christopher J. Sullivan↗

Satellite Conjunction Assessment, Risk Analysis and Collision Avoidance Best Practices: The History, Evolution and Opportunities

Since Explorer 1 was launched on January 31, 1958, the United States (U.S.) has reaped the benefits of space exploration. New markets and new technologies have spurred the economy and changed lives in many ways across the national security, civil, and commercial sectors. Space technologies and space-based capabilities now provide global communications, navigation and timing, weather forecasting, and more. Space exploration also presents challenges that impact not only the U.S. but also its allies and other partners. A significant increase in the volume and diversity of activity in space means that it is becoming increasingly congested. Emerging commercial ventures such as satellite servicing, in-space manufacturing, and tourism as well as new technologies enabling small satellites and large constellations of satellites present serious challenges for safely and responsibly using space in a stable, sustainable manner. To meet these challenges, the U.S. seeks to improve global awareness of activity in space by publicly sharing flight safety-related information and by coordinating its own on-orbit activity in a safer, more responsible manner. It seeks to bolster stability and reduce current and future operational on-orbit risks so that space is sustained for future generations. To this end, new and better Space Situational Awareness (SSA) capabilities are needed to keep pace with the increased congestion, and the U.S. seeks to create a dynamic environment that encourages and rewards commercial providers who improve these capabilities. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook reflects how NASA currently operates, which has evolved over time. Consideration is given to important topics such as spacecraft and constellation design; spacecraft “trackability;” pre-launch preparation and early launch activities; on-orbit collision avoidance; and automated trajectory guidance and maneuvering. This talk aims to present examples of responsible practices for spacecraft Owners/Operators (O/O) to consider for lowering collision risks and operating safely in space (from LEO and beyond) in a stable and sustainable manner. As technology and innovation continues to improve upon existing capabilities, what kind of new challenges are presented in the SSA community? Can space exploration and commercial ventures thrive while keeping paramount the safety and protection of the space environment? What are the challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed and considered for space situational awareness in Cis-Lunar Space? It may prove useful for entities offering, or intending to offer, SSA or Conjunction Assessment (CA) services to consider such examples of responsible practices to protect the space environment for future use by all.

Collision Avoidance↗

NASA CARA Prelaunch Analysis and Process

NASA implemented an official Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8079.1 in June 2023, establishing the minimum collision avoidance requirements and associated operational protocols for NASA space flight programs, projects, and spacecraft to protect the space environment by reducing the risk of collision to an acceptable level. Part of the requirement employs a two-fold approach to analyze the satellite design process with conjunction assessment and risk mitigation in mind, during the pre-launch process, led by the Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Program for non-Human Space Flight (HSF) Missions. This presentation outlines CARA coordination with missions, informed by the NPR, that spans early mission development to operations. CARA is an Agency-level resource that provides support to all NASA non-HSF missions. CARA protects the orbital environment from collision between NASA non-HSF missions and other tracked on-orbit objects. During the pre-formulation and formulation phases, NASA missions undergo a series of conjunction assessment analyses captured in the Orbital Collision Avoidance Plan (OCAP) prior to transitioning to the implementation phase (typically at the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) or equivalent). The OCAP analyses consist of a thorough review of the spacecraft(s) orbit selection and placement, deployment, cataloguing performance, trackability, ephemeris generation, conjunction mitigation options, autonomous maneuvering, and risk assessment parameters which are performed by a dedicated CARA Analysis Team. The results of these analyses, CARA’s formal recommendations, and the mission’s methods for implementing them, are documented in the OCAP. The intent of engaging in this process so early in the mission design phase, is to ensure that conjunction assessment is considered from the outset, thus mitigating costly design changes and operational risks down the road. NASA missions are also required to coordinate their operational processes and conjunction mitigation procedures with CARA in a Conjunction Assessment Operations Implementation Agreement (CAOIA). The aim of this process is to document the conjunction assessment screening process, conjunction risk assessment parameters, conjunction mitigation steps, flight dynamics operations concepts and maneuvers, and the communication and coordination process between the mission’s project manager and CARA. The intent of the CAOIA document is for it to be completed iteratively, and as missions update these elements, corresponding changes are made in the CAOIA. With this process in place, the engagement and coordination between the missions and CARA from early in the design process into mission operations, helps to ensure that missions not only have a robust conjunction assessment concept of operations to reduce conjunction risk for space sustainability, but are also able to achieve their science goals and have a successful mission.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Ground Systems, Software and Operations Infrastructure Cloud Implementation

The growing number of large-scale constellations and the improvements made in the tracking and detection of resident space objects have contributed to the increase of satellite conjunction events. As a result of the increase of objects in Earth orbit, the timeline for risk analysis computations for satellite collision avoidance is more urgent when conjunctions occur. It is imperative NASA maintains a space environment safety functionality for the agency that allows CARA remote access to the ground system while maintaining redundancy. CARA’s On-premises (On-prem) ground system would no longer be able to meet these access and redundancy requirements, hence the investigation and eventual implementation of a Cloud-based ground station infrastructure as a viable solution. This paper will provide an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk analysis process used at CARA, summarize the key drivers towards the Cloud solution, and share key lessons learned that are significant for any operational entity considering a cloud solution for real-time satellite operations to ensure a sustainable space traffic environment for all.

Sustainability↗