Aman, Saima | Search NASA

DOE OSTI2016

Learning to REDUCE: A Reduced Electricity Consumption Prediction Ensemble

Utilities use Demand Response (DR) to balance supply and demand in the electric grid by involving customers in efforts to reduce electricity consumption during peak periods. To implement and adapt DR under dynamically changing conditions of the grid, reliable prediction of reduced consumption is critical. However, despite the wealth of research on electricity consumption prediction and DR being long in practice, the problem of reduced consumption prediction remains largely un-addressed. In this paper, we identify unique computational challenges associated with the prediction of reduced consumption and contrast this to that of normal consumption and DR baseline prediction.We propose a novel ensemble model that leverages different sequences of daily electricity consumption on DR event days as well as contextual attributes for reduced consumption prediction. We demonstrate the success of our model on a large, real-world, high resolution dataset from a university microgrid comprising of over 950 DR events across a diverse set of 32 buildings. Our model achieves an average error of 13.5%, an 8.8% improvement over the baseline. Our work is particularly relevant for buildings where electricity consumption is not tied to strict schedules. Our results and insights should prove useful to the researchers and practitioners working in the sustainable energy domain.

Aman, Saima↗

DOE OSTI2015

Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D 2 R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D 2 R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D 2 R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D 2 R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D 2 R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D 2 R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D 2 R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of historical training data can be used to make reliable predictions, simplifying the complexity of big data challenge associated with D 2 R.

Aman, Saima↗