Andy Dong | Search NASA

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting And Characterizing Archetypes of Unintended Consequences in Engineered Systems

When designing engineered systems, the potential for unintended consequences of design policies or design decisions exists despite best intentions. Conditions that might cause the formation of unintended consequences are often known only in hindsight. However, since these conditions are associated with a single event, it is difficult to uncover the general patterns of conditions leading to unintended consequences. In this research, patterns of conditions associated with unintended consequences are learned from historical data and represented in the form of archetypes. While previous work using systems theoretic modeling has identified high-level archetypes, this work leverages a self-organizing map to learn archetypes of unintended consequences from human-tagged risk factors in a large data set of lessons learned from adverse events at NASA. The sixty-six identified archetypes contain patterns of conditions such as complexity and human-machine interaction associated with the formation of unintended consequences. To validate the archetypes, a sample of the archetypes is represented using system dynamics in order to illustrate that the identified archetypes are specialized versions of known high-level archetypes of unintended consequences. While the research is based upon a specific dataset, the archetypes apply to any engineered system and the pattern of leading indicators open a new path to manage unintended consequences and mitigate the magnitude of potentially adverse outcomes.

Hannah S Walsh↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting and Characterizing Patterns of Failure in Complex Engineered Systems: an Ontology Development and Clustering Approach

While the causes of failures in complex engineered systems are often clear in hindsight, it can be challenging to predict failures proactively during the design of novel engineered products or systems. Identifying patterns can be useful for capturing common characteristics that may lead to failure. In this paper, we present a methodology for identifying patterns of failure from NASA’s publicly available Lessons Learned Information System (LLIS). We apply an ontology development and clustering approach to identify representative patterns leading to failures in historical lessons learned. A joint inductive-deductive approach reveals the key themes in lessons that lead to failure, which are formalized and recorded as an ontology of complex systems failure causes. Documents from the LLIS are manually tagged with relevant characteristics from the ontology. From the tagged set, clustering is used to capture co-occurring sets of characteristics that lead to failure. The primary contribution of this work is a method for extracting a set of generic failure patterns in complex engineered systems and characteristics for these patterns that can be identified at design time, knowledge of which can be used to plan mitigation strategies.

Systems Engineering↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting and Characterizing Patterns of Failure in Complex Systems: An Ontology Development and Clustering Approach

While the causes of failures in complex engineered systems are often clear in hindsight, it can be challenging to predict failures proactively during the design of novel engineered products or systems. Identifying patterns can be useful for capturing common characteristics that may lead to failure. In this paper, we present a methodology for identifying patterns of failure from NASA’s publicly available Lessons Learned Information System (LLIS). We apply an ontology development and clustering approach to identify representative patterns leading to failures in historical lessons learned. A joint inductive-deductive approach reveals the key themes in lessons that lead to failure, which are formalized and recorded as an ontology of complex systems failure causes. Documents from the LLIS are manually tagged with relevant characteristics from the ontology. From the tagged set, clustering is used to capture co-occurring sets of characteristics that lead to failure. The primary contribution of this work is a method for extracting a set of generic failure patterns in complex engineered systems and characteristics for these patterns that can be identified at design time, knowledge of which can be used to plan mitigation strategies.

Systems Engineering↗