Engineering topics

Aquila, Valentina

Publications and source records attributed to Aquila, Valentina.

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2019

Differences in the Vertical and Microphysical Evolution of Volcanic and Pyrocumulonimbus Stratospheric Aerosol Plumes as Observed by CALIOP and CATS Satellite Lidar

For some time, volcanic eruptions have been thought to be the only significant direct injectors of aerosols in the stratosphere. However, recent fire seasons have featured fire events resulting in large volcanic-sized pyrocumulonimbus plumes of smoke aerosols reaching many kilometers into the lower stratosphere. To understand and model the effects of these pyrocumulonimbus events on stratospheric composition and climate, a natural analogy lies with better studied volcanic events; however, differences in plume composition may limit this comparison. Using satellite lidar from both CATS and CALIOP, we show that the stratospheric aerosol plumes from the record-setting Pacific Northwest pyrocumulonimbus event of 2017 and the Calbuco volcanic eruption of 2015 evolve differently both vertically and microphysically. Specifically, depolarization ratios indicate that this pyrocumulonimbus event’s aerosol particles became more irregularly shaped over time in contrast to volcanic aerosols which become more spherical over time. Accounting for these changes in aerosol properties may be significant in assessing the effects of pyrocumulonimbus events on the Earth’s radiative balance and aid in refining stratospheric aerosol typing algorithms to differentiate volcanic from pyrocumulonimbus plumes.

Christian, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2019

Impacts of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on ENSO in the GEOS seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 introduced a perturbation of the Earth's global energy budget by increasing the stratospheric aerosol loading by an order of magnitude, with effects on the global climate. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System Seasonal-to Subseasonal (GEOS-S2S) system, an Earth System Model that includes an interactive ocean and a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation. We performed 10-member ensembles for the year after the eruption (June 1991-May 1992) at ~0.5 horizontal resolution, with and without the inclusion of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. In GEOS-S2S, the eruption leads to ta strengthening of El Nino peaking in January 1992. The strengthening is mainly due to the weakening of the trade winds, which is caused by a attening of the temperature gradient across the Pacic due to a differential response to the volcanic forcing between the central and eastern Pacic (ocean-dynamical thermostat). This response largely depends on the assumed size for the volcanic aerosols. Indeed, we performed simulations assuming a volcanic aerosol effective radius of 0.35 m (similar to tropospheric aerosol, and the default in GEOS) and 0.6 m (closer to observations of volcanic aerosol from Pinatubo-sized eruptions). We nd that in the latter case the tropical radiative forcing is lower, since smaller aerosols scatter shortwave radiation more eciently than larger ones. Accordingly, the impact on ENSO is not statistically signicant when a larger and more realistic particle radius is assumed.

Aquila, Valentina↗

NASA NTRS2019

NASA GEOS Aerosol Modeling and Assimilation Activities

The current assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in GEOS involves very careful cloud screening and homogenization of the observing system by means of a neural network that translates satellite reflectances from MODIS into AERONET calibrated AOD. In this talk we will present an update of the GEOS aerosol assimilation system, with emphasis on the improved treatment of MODIS observations. We will then proceed to assess the impact of geostationary aerosol observations from the ABI and AHI sensors on the GOES-16 and Himawari-8 satellites. The GEOS assimilated aerosol fields will be validated by comparison to independent in-situ and remotely-sensed measurements (PM2.5 concentrations, surface dust concentrations, Maritime Aerosol Network, airborne and ground based lidars, UV based measurements, etc.).

Castellanos, Patricia↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mt. Pinatubo's Impacts on the GEOS Forecasting System

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 had dramatic effects on the global climate, introducing a sudden and extreme forcing on the radiative budget. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), an Earth System Model that includes a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation and an interactive ocean.We performed three ten-member ensembles of 12-month simulations (June 1991-May 1992). These simulations were performed with a 0.5 longitude by 0.5 latitude horizontal resolution. Out of the three ensembles, one excludes the eruption, representing the control experiment. The other two ensembles include the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, varying in the effective radius of the volcanic sulfate: one assumed the effective radius to be equal to 0.35 micron (as for tropospheric aerosol) and the other has the effective radius set to 0.6 micron (closer to natural observation). Through the analysis of the aerosol forcing results derived from the two assumptions, we can show how this forcing acts on the seasonal forecast system. In particular, we will focus on the impacts to the surface and ocean temperatures and precipitation.

Mukherjee, Nikita↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: North Pacific and North America

The prominence of nonlinearities in the response to El Niño as compared to La Niña, to moderate El Niño events as compared to extreme El Ninño events, and to different flavors of El Niño events, are analyzed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. In the Central North Pacific region where the sea level pressure response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks, nonlinearities are relatively muted. In contrast, changes to the east of this region (i.e. the far-Northeastern Pacific) and to the north of this region (over Alaska) in response to different ENSO phases are more clearly nonlinear, and become statistically robust after more than 15 events are considered. The relative prominence of these nonlinearities is related to the zonal wavenumber of the tropical precipitation response. Associated with these nonlinearities over the far-Northeastern Pacific are nonlinearities in precipitation over Western United States and surface temperature over Northwest North America and Midwestern United States. In all regions at least 15 events of each type are necessary before nonlinearities can be identified as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level due to the presence of internal atmospheric variability. As there have only been a similar number of ENSO events to the total needed for significance since 1920, it is not surprising that it has been difficult to establish statistically significant nonlinearities using observational data.

Nonlinearities↗

NASA NTRS2017

Time-Varying Changes in the Simulated Structure of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

stratospheric ozone↗

NASA NTRS2017

Update on the NASA GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting and Data Assimilation System

GEOS-5 is the Goddard Earth Observing System model. GEOS-5 is maintained by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. Core development is within GMAO,Goddard Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, and with external partners. Primary GEOS-5 functions: Earth system model for studying climate variability and change, provide research quality reanalyses for supporting NASA instrument teams and scientific community, provide near-real time forecasts of meteorology,aerosols, and other atmospheric constituents to support NASA airborne campaigns.

GEOS-5↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Modeled Vertical Distribution of Atmospheric SO2 and Sulfate in UTLS

We evaluated the vertical profiles of both SO2 and sulfate in the AEROCOM (Aerosol Model Intercomparison) Phase II participating models. SO2 and sulfate show significant concentration gradient in both horizontal and vertical directions. Both online and offline aerosol transport models show large difference in the vertical distribution of sulfur species from surface all the way up to lower stratosphere. Comparison with available aircraft measurements suggests models agree with observations well when SO2 concentration is high. For the volcanic plumes, the injection height and magnitude determines initial SO2 plume distribution and following transport pattern. At high altitude, where the background concentration of SO2 is often below the detection limit of the current aircraft instruments and satellite retrievals, modeled SO2 and sulfate concentration, lifetime, and budget, as well as their uncertainties can be difficult to be accurately quantified.

volcanic plumes↗

NASA NTRS2015

Disentangling the Roles of Various Forcing Mechanisms on Stratospheric Temperature Changes Since 1979 with the NASA GEOSCCM

Observations show that the cooling of global stratospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2015 took place in two major steps coincident with the 1982 El Chichon and 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruptions. In order to attribute the features of the global stratospheric temperature time series to the main forcing agents, we performed a set of simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model. Our results show that the characteristic step-like behavior is to be attributed to the effects of the solar cycle, except for the post-1995 flattening of the lower stratospheric temperatures, where the decrease in ozone depleting substances due to the Montreal Protocol slowed ozone depletion and therefore also the cooling of the stratosphere. Volcanic eruptions also caused a significant warming of the stratosphere after 1995. The observed general cooling is mainly caused by increasing ozone depleting substances in the lower stratosphere, and greenhouse gases in the middle and upper stratosphere.

ozone↗

NASA NTRS2014

Anthropogenic and Volcanic Contributions to the Decadal Variations of Aerosols in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

We investigated the anthropogenic and volcanic contributions to sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere through modeling and analysis of satellite data. We use a global model GOCART to simulate SO2 and sulfate aerosol in the period of 2000 to 2010, during which numerous volcanic eruptions occurred although nothing like the magnitudes of El Chichon or Pinatubo. We compared the model results with the column SO2 data from OMI and stratospheric SO2 data from MLS instrument on Aura satellite and the aerosol vertical profiles from the SCIAMACHY instrument on Envisat and the CALIOP instrument on CALIPSO satellites. Finally, we assessed the relative contributions of volcanic aerosols vs. anthropogenic aerosols to the observed decadal stratospheric aerosol trends.

HTAP2/AeroCom3 model↗

NASA NTRS2014

Diagnosis of Middle Atmosphere Climate Sensitivity by the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method

We present a new method to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity by extending the Climate Feedback-Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) for the coupled atmosphere-surface system to the middle atmosphere. The Middle atmosphere CFRAM (MCFRAM) is built on the atmospheric energy equation per unit mass with radiative heating and cooling rates as its major thermal energy sources. MCFRAM preserves the CFRAM unique feature of an additive property for which the sum of all partial temperature changes due to variations in external forcing and feedback processes equals the observed temperature change. In addition, MCFRAM establishes a physical relationship of radiative damping between the energy perturbations associated with various feedback processes and temperature perturbations associated with thermal responses. MCFRAM is applied to both measurements and model output fields to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity. It is found that the largest component of the middle atmosphere temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle (solar maximum vs. solar minimum) is directly from the partial temperature change due to the variation of the input solar flux. Increasing CO2 always cools the middle atmosphere with time whereas partial temperature change due to O3 variation could be either positive or negative. The partial temperature changes due to different feedbacks show distinctly different spatial patterns. The thermally driven globally averaged partial temperature change due to all radiative processes is approximately equal to the observed temperature change, ranging from 0.5 K near 70 km from the near solar maximum to the solar minimum.

MCFRAM↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Messy Aerosol Submodel MADE3 (v2.0b): Description and a Box Model Test

We introduce MADE3 (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, 3rd generation), an aerosol dynamics submodel for application within the MESSy framework (Modular Earth Submodel System). MADE3 builds on the predecessor aerosol submodels MADE and MADE-in. Its main new features are the explicit representation of coarse particle interactions both with other particles and with condensable gases, and the inclusion of hydrochloric acid (HCl)chloride (Cl) partitioning between the gas and condensed phases. The aerosol size distribution is represented in the new submodel as a superposition of nine lognormal modes: one for fully soluble particles, one for insoluble particles, and one for mixed particles in each of three size ranges (Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges). In order to assess the performance of MADE3 we compare it to its predecessor MADE and to the much more detailed particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC in a box model simulation of an idealized marine boundary layer test case. MADE3 and MADE results are very similar, except in the coarse mode, where the aerosol is dominated by sea spray particles. Cl is reduced in MADE3 with respect to MADE due to the HClCl partitioning that leads to Cl removal from the sea spray aerosol in our test case. Additionally, aerosol nitrate concentration is higher in MADE3 due to the condensation of nitric acid on coarse particles. MADE3 and PartMC- MOSAIC show substantial differences in the fine particle size distributions (sizes about 2 micrometers) that could be relevant when simulating climate effects on a global scale. Nevertheless, the agreement between MADE3 and PartMC-MOSAIC is very good when it comes to coarse particle size distribution, and also in terms of aerosol composition. Considering these results and the well-established ability of MADE in reproducing observed aerosol loadings and composition, MADE3 seems suitable for application within a global model.

Mixing state↗

NASA NTRS2013

Stratospheric Ozone Response in Experiments G3 and G4 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols has been proposed as a means of temporarily cooling the planet, alleviating some of the side effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, one of the known side effects of stratospheric injections of sulfate aerosols is a decrease in stratospheric ozone. Here we show results from two general circulation models and two coupled chemistry climate models that have simulated stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering as part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Changes in photolysis rates and upwelling of ozone-poor air in the tropics reduce stratospheric ozone, suppression of the NOx cycle increases stratospheric ozone, and an increase in available surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry modulates reductions in ozone. On average, the models show a factor 20-40 increase of the sulfate aerosol surface area density (SAD) at 50 hPa in the tropics with respect to unperturbed background conditions and a factor 3-10 increase at mid-high latitudes. The net effect for a tropical injection rate of 5 Tg SO2 per year is a decrease in globally averaged ozone by 1.1-2.1 DU in the years 2040-2050 for three models which include heterogeneous chemistry on the sulfate aerosol surfaces. GISS-E2-R, a fully coupled general circulation model, performed simulations with no heterogeneous chemistry and a smaller aerosol size; it showed a decrease in ozone by 9.7 DU. After the year 2050, suppression of the NOx cycle becomes more important than destruction of ozone by ClOx, causing an increase in total stratospheric ozone. Contribution of ozone changes in this experiment to radiative forcing is 0.23 W m-2 in GISS-E2-R and less than 0.1 W m-2 in the other three models. Polar ozone depletion, due to enhanced formation of both sulfate aerosol SAD and polar stratospheric clouds, results in an average 5 percent increase in calculated surface UV-B.

aerosol↗

NASA NTRS2013

Current and Future Applications of the GEOS-5 Aerosol Modeling System

The presentation summarizes current and proposed activities for the GEOS-5 aerosol modeling system. Activities discussed include (i) forecasting and event simulation, (ii) observation simulation, (iii) aerosol-chemistry-climate applications, and (iv) future activities. The document was presented at the 2013 AEROCENTER Annual Meeting held at the GSFC Visitors Center May 31, 2013. The Organizers of the meeting are posting the talks to the public Aerocenter website, after the meeting.

Airborne Field Missions↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Response of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide to the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo at Southern and Northern Midlatitudes

Observations have shown that the mass of nitrogen dioxide decreased at both southern and northern midlatitudes in the year following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, indicating that the volcanic aerosol had enhanced nitrogen dioxide depletion via heterogeneous chemistry. In contrast, the observed ozone response showed a northern midlatitude decrease and a small southern midlatitude increase. Previous simulations that included an enhancement of heterogeneous chemistry by the volcanic aerosol but no other effect of this aerosol produce ozone decreases in both hemispheres, contrary to observations. The authors simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and Southern Hemisphere extratropical downwelling. This enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer Dobson circulation, increased Southern Hemisphere ozone via advection, counteracting the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on the Pinatubo aerosol.

Aquila, Valentina↗

NASA NTRS2012

Dispersion of the Volcanic Sulfate Cloud from the Mount Pinatubo Eruption

We simulate the transport of the volcanic cloud from the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo with the GEOS-5 general circulation model. Our simulations are in good agreement with observational data. We tested the importance of initial condition corresponding to the specific meteorological situation at the time of the eruption by employing reanalysis from MERRA. We found no significant difference in the transport of the cloud. We show how the inclusion of the interaction between volcanic sulfate aerosol and radiation is essential for a reliable simulation of the transport of the volcanic cloud. The absorption of long wave radiation by the volcanic sulfate induces a rising of the volcanic cloud up to the middle stratosphere, combined with divergent motion from the latitude of the eruption to the tropics. Our simulations indicate that the cloud diffuses to the northern hemisphere through a lower stratospheric pathway, and to mid- and high latitudes of the southern hemisphere through a middle stratospheric pathway, centered at about 30 hPa. The direction of the middle stratospheric pathway depends on the season. We did not detect any significant change of the mixing between tropics and mid- and high latitudes in the southern hemisphere.

Aquila, Valentina↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Atmospheric Aerosol Modeling

Global aerosol models are used to study the distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosol particles as well as their effects on clouds, atmospheric chemistry, radiation, and climate. The present article provides an overview of the basic concepts of global atmospheric aerosol modeling and shows some examples from a global aerosol simulation. Particular emphasis is placed on the simulation of aerosol particles and their effects within global climate models.

Hendricks, Johannes↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Response of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide to the Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo

Observations have shown that the global mass of nitrogen dioxide decreased in both hemispheres in the year following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. In contrast, the observed ozone response was largely asymmetrical with respect to the equator, with a decrease in the northern hemisphere and little change and even a small increase in the southern hemisphere. Simulations including enhanced heterogeneous chemistry due to the presence of the volcanic aerosol reproduce a decrease of ozone in the northern hemisphere, but also produce a comparable ozone decrease in the southern hemisphere, contrary to observations. Our simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and the extratropical downwelling. The enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, increased the ozone in the southern hemisphere and counteracted the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on volcanic aerosol.

Aquila, Valentina↗