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Arbanas, Goran

Publications and source records attributed to Arbanas, Goran.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Recognizing Unrecognized Sources of Uncertainty (USU) in Nuclear Data

Historically, time-of-flight (TOF) nuclear cross section measurements on different nuclides are assumed to be uncorrelated if they were recorded in different facilities with identical methods, identical facilities with different methods, and even identical facilities with identical methods. Ideally, measurements of different nuclides would truly be uncorrelated thus providing independent assessments of some cross section. In reality, correlations exist between measurements but are simply assumed to be unimportant. To eliminate these qualitative assumptions, in this paper we make a counter-intuitive suggestion to perform an intentionally correlated measurement of energy-differential fission and capture reactions for nuclides in a single criticality safety benchmark during a single experimental campaign. While this would introduce undesirable correlations, it would fully quantify correlations between datasets, rather than assume that the correlations do not exist.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Resolved Resonance Evaluation for 51 V with Resonance Parameter Covariance

In this presentation the 51 V evaluation in response to NCSP need is completed. Issues in connection to RR representation are addressed. Uncertainty and covariance information derived with the evaluation. Evaluation proposed and accepted for inclusion in ENDF/B-VIII.1 library.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments [Slides]

This presentation is on generalized Bayesian framework for evaluation of integral benchmark experiments. This presentation starts off with assumptions and approximations used with Bayes Theorem. then an overview of approximations used by ORNL codes, and Generalized Bayesian Monto Carlo (GBMC). The presentation then details out a precise framework. This presentation then concludes with considerations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Status Report of Joint RPI/ORNL NCSP Task for Thermal Neutron Total Cross Section Measurements

A new cold neutron moderator system was developed and constructed at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) Gaerttner Linear Accelerator. This system was then used to measure the neutron total cross section in the thermal energy range for polyethylene, polystyrene, Lucite, and yttrium hydride. In tandem with these measurements, a fitting procedure was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to vary computationally simulated phonon density of states until a fit with differential and integral data was achieved. This model, combined with the new RPI total cross section data, was used to generate thermal scattering law files for the materials measured at RPI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

R-matrix Resolved Resonance Region Evaluation of 140,142 Ce

Oak Ridge National Laboratory completed the resolved resonance region (RRR) evaluation of the two most abundant cerium isotopes, 140 Ce (88.45%) and 142 Ce (11.11%), as requested by the US Nuclear Criticality Safety Program. These evaluations are based on recent high-resolution transmission and capture measurements performed on nat Ce and highly enriched 142 Ce samples at the JRC-Geel Linear Accelerator facility, as well as measured thermal constants available from the EXFOR database. Starting from the resonance parameters of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library followed by a preliminary R-matrix analysis, an updated set of resonance parameters and corresponding covariance information were derived by fitting these measured data using the Reich–Moore approximation of the R -matrix theory, as implemented in the SAMMY code system. The 140 Ce RRR upper energy limit was kept at 200 keV, whereas the 142 Ce resonance region was extended from 13 to 26 keV. Updated statistical properties were obtained for the new evaluations and compared to those derived from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data library. The new evaluation work improved some of the discrepancies found in previous work, such as the capture resonance integral and stellar Maxwellian-averaged cross sections. These integral quantities were mainly derived from the fit of the latest measured data, especially the neutron capture yield data for 142 Ce isotope.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Confidence Metrics for Nuclear Criticality Safety

Nuclear criticality safety standards provide guidance on the requirements and recommendations to establish confidence in computerized model results used to support operation with fissionable materials. By design, the guidance is not prescriptive, leaving the analysts free to determine how various sources of uncertainties are to be statistically aggregated. This report compares the analyses and key assumptions behind four notable methodologies documented in the nuclear criticality safety literature: the parametric, nonparametric, Whisper, and TSURFER methodologies. Because of the involved use of statistics entangled with heuristic recipes, the results of these methodologies are often difficult to interpret. Also, they are augmented by additional large administrative margins, eliminating the incentive to understand their differences. With the new resurgent wave of advanced nuclear systems focused on economizing operation—including advanced reactors, fuel cycles, and fuel concepts—there is a strong need to develop a clear understanding of uncertainties and their fusion methodologies to reduce uncertainties in a scientifically defensible manner. This report offers a deep dive into the various assumptions of the four noted methodologies, their adequacy, and their limitations, to provide guidance on developing confidence for the emergent nuclear systems. These systems are expected to be challenged by the scarcity of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parameterization of Direct and Doorway Processes in R-Matrix Formalism

R-matrix formalism is extended beyond compound nuclear (CN) resonant reactions to include parameterization of direct as well as doorway processes. Direct processes in the R-matrix exterior are parameterized by a unitary matrix that introduces mixing among wave function coefficients of the incoming and outgoing wave function components at the R-matrix channel surface. Doorway processes are parameterized by separating the Hilbert space of the interior R-matrix region into its doorway and CN subspaces, from which doorway state eigenenergies, reduced width amplitudes, and the strengths of their coupling to CN levels appear as new R-matrix parameters. Parameterization of generalized as well as the conventional Reich–Moore approximation for eliminated capture channels in the presence of direct, doorway, and CN processes is presented along with a complex-valued scattering length with contributions from direct, doorway, and CN capture processes. Derivation of Brune’s alternative R-matrix parameters is extended to include doorway states. This work suggests how R-matrix formalism could be extended further by adopting the concepts from related reaction formalisms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

140,142 Ce Neutron Cross Section Resolved Resonance Region Evaluation

A resolved resonance region evaluation of 140,142 Ce was conducted by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Requested by the US Nuclear Criticality Safety Program, this evaluation is based on recent high-resolution transmission and capture high-resolution measurements of nat Ce and 142 Ce conducted at JRC-Geel at the Geel Linear Accelerator facility. It is also based on recently measured thermal constants available from the EX FOR database. Starting from the resonance parameters from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library and following a preliminary R-matrix analysis, an updated set of resonance parameters and corresponding covariance in formation was derived by the fit of these experimental datasets using the Reich–Moore approximation of the R-matrix theory, as implemented in the SAMMY code system. The resolved resonance region upper energy limit for 140 Ce was kept at 200 keV, whereas the 142 Ce resonance region was extended from 13 to 26 keV. This new evaluation was found to be in good agreement not only with several integral quantities of interest to the reactor physics community, but also with the stellar Maxwellian-averaged cross section.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model

Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗