Assay-based background projection for the Majorana Demonstrator using Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
The background index (BI) is an important quantity to project and calculate the half-life sensitivity of neutrinoless double-๐ฝ decay (0โข๐โข๐ฝโข๐ฝ) experiments. An analysis framework is presented to calculate the BI using the specific activities, masses, and simulated efficiencies of an experiments components as distributions. This Bayesian framework includes a unified approach to combine specific activities from assay. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is used to build a BI distribution from the specific activity, mass, and efficiency distributions. This method is applied to the M AJORANA D EMONSTRATOR , which deployed arrays of high-purity Ge detectors enriched in 76 Ge to search for 0โข๐โข๐ฝโข๐ฝ. The original assay-based projection is requantified in the new framework, using the as-built geometry of the Demonstrator and additional assay information. While 47% higher than the original projection, the resulting BI of [8.95ยฑ0.36]ร10 โ4 cts/(keVkgyr) from the 232 Th and 238 U decay chains does not account for the higher-than-expected BI observed by the D EMONSTRATOR . Finally, this method enables us to demonstrate the statistical incompatibility between the D EMONSTRATOR 's observed background and the assay results.