Engineering topics

Ashley M. Coates

Publications and source records attributed to Ashley M. Coates.

3 records

NASA NTRS2024

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Case Study of Meteoroid Fluence on a Mars Sample Return Mission

The Mars Sample Return Campaign must satisfy a Back Planetary Protection requirement that limits the risk of biological contamination of the Earth by Martian microbes. The Earth Re-turn Orbiter (ERO), being developed by the European Space Agency (ESA), will carry a Capture, Containment and Return System (CCRS), which is being developed by NASA to retrieve orbiting samples (OS) from Mars orbit, surround them with two containment layers to create a Contained OS (COS), and transfer the COS to the Earth Entry System (EES), which will be re-leased by ERO to carry the samples through entry, descent and landing at the Utah Test and Training Range. Micrometeoroid impact damage to the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of the EES, which may occur at any time in the ERO mission, is recognized as a potential risk driver for loss of sample containment that needs to be rigorously assessed. A Micrometeoroid Protection System (MMPS) will be implemented to limit that risk. The MMPS consists of a shield covering the TPS called the Micrometeoroid Garage (MMG) and a system of cameras to inspect the TPS. An extensive study was performed by the CCRS Project in collaboration with the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC)to assess the probability of damage to the MMG and TPS by meteoroids over the entire ERO mission. This included the computation of the meteoroid fluence on the MMG and directly on the TPS after EES separation, and assessment of damage to the MMG and TPS via hypervelocity impact tests, hydrocode simulations, and empirical damage prediction and ballistic limit equations (BLEs). The focus of this paper is the meteoroid fluence on the MMG.

micrometeoroid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 PDC hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗