Operational and Technical Updates to the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool
No abstract available
Bacon, John B.↗
Engineering topics
Bacon, John B.
Publications and source records attributed to Bacon, John B..
Macro-Scale Findings of the DebriSat Debris Field Obtained from X-Rays of the Catch Panels
The DebriSat project analyzes the debris from a hypervelocity impact test conducted on a 56 kg-simulated satellite target in 2014. Its purpose is to generate a comprehensive database of the size, mass, material, shape, and the radar and optical properties of fragments generated from orbital collisions of modern-built spacecraft. Three hundred ninety-one foam catch panels from the DebriSat test have been X-rayed to locate the particles within them for subsequent extraction and assessment. The data from the tens of thousands of extracted particles has heretofore been the focus of the debris assessment. The work presented here connects the X-ray sample location images to reconstruct the 3D distribution of the entire fragment cloud. Although some errors are inherent to the process, this 3D database is valuable for qualitative studies of size and energy distributions. Further, the 3D database can indicate the extent of bending or breaking of the fragments as they decelerated to full capture. By virtue of its full sphere perspective, the 3D database allows graphical insight to the physics of the collision and breakup. This 3D representation has been developed as a “point and click” graphical interface to retrieve the full data set on individual recovered and assessed fragments within the growing database. Overall, this macro-level screening technique has added enormous insight to the experiment in unexpected ways.
Allen, Anthony↗
Seasonal- and Beta-Angle-Dependent Latitude Bias Variations in Natural Decays
Prior work has demonstrated pronounced statistical clustering of natural decays of medium-to-high-inclination orbital objects peaking approximately 30 degrees in Argument of Latitude ahead of nodal crossings. This effect is caused by the physical bulge in the Earth and the overlying atmosphere, that cyclically modifies effective altitude (and therefore density) faster than the trajectory's decay itself. While prior work has averaged seasonal and RAAN effects over all non-uniform atmosphere possibilities to support long-term characterization of the clustering of final entries in generating a pre-mission Expectation of Casualty, the current study characterizes seasonal and beta angle effects as potential influences on the near-term statistical risks of specific tactical decay scenarios, relative to the average. Such effects on the density profile along an orbit may be important considerations in any scenario where small orbital adjustments are used to optimize the timing and location of final entry trajectories. I.E., two identical spacecraft entering in different seasons and/or beta angles may have different minimum-risk scenarios for identical control capabilities and space weather conditions. Further, the early heating history of shallow trajectories is explored, examining the influence of dramatically different density profiles over the final orbit as the spacecraft either skims over or dives into the atmosphere.
Bacon, John B.↗
Oblate-Earth Effects on the Calculation of Ec During Spacecraft Reentry
The bulge in the Earth at its equator has been shown to lead to a clustering of natural decays biased to occur towards the equator and away from the orbit's extreme latitudes. Such clustering must be considered when predicting the Expectation of Casualty (Ec) during a natural decay, because of the corresponding clustering of the human population in the lower latitudes. This study expands upon prior work, and formalizes in a single empirical equation the correction that must be made to the calculation of the average exposed population density as a result of this effect. The equation is represented as a function of ballistic number and inclination of the entering spacecraft over the credible range of ballistic numbers.
Bacon, John B.↗
Oblate-Earth Effects on the Calculation of Ec During Spacecraft Reentry
The bulge in the Earth at its equator has been shown to lead to a clustering of natural decays biased to occur towards the equator and away from the orbit's extreme latitudes. Such clustering must be considered when predicting the Expectation of Casualty (Ec) during a natural decay because of the clustering of the human population in the same lower latitudes. This study expands upon prior work, and formalizes the correction that must be made to the calculation of the average exposed population density as a result of this effect. Although a generic equation can be derived from this work to approximate the effects of gravitational and atmospheric perturbations on a final decay, such an equation averages certain important subtleties in achieving a best fit over all conditions. The authors recommend that direct simulation be used to calculate the true Ec for any specific entry as a more accurate method. A generic equation is provided, represented as a function of ballistic number and inclination of the entering spacecraft over the credible range of ballistic numbers.
Bacon, John B.↗
Oblate-Earth Effects on the Calculation of Ec During Spacecraft Reentry
The bulge in the Earth at its equator has been shown to lead to a clustering of natural decays biased to occur towards the equator and away from the orbit's extreme latitudes. Such clustering must be considered when predicting the Expectation of Casualty (Ec) during a natural decay, because of the corresponding clustering of the human population in the lower latitudes. This study expands upon prior work, and formalizes in a single empirical equation the correction that must be made to the calculation of the average exposed population density as a result of this effect. The equation is represented as a function of ballistic number and inclination of the entering spacecraft over the credible range of ballistic numbers.
Bacon, John B.↗
Minimum dV for Targeted Spacecraft Disposal
The study analyzes the minimum capability required to dispose safely of a space object. The study considers 3- sigma environmental uncertainties, as well as spacecraft-specific constraints such as the available thrust, total impulse, the achievable increase or decrease in commandable frontal area under stable attitude (or stable tumble), and the final controllable altitude at which any such dV may be imparted. The study addresses the definition of the length and location of a 'safe' disposal area, which is a statistical manifestation of uncertainty in this process. Some general legal concerns are raised that are unique to this prospect of low dV disposals. Future work is summarized. The goal of such research is to improve public safety by creating optimally safe disposal strategies (and potentially, applicable regulations) for low-dV and/or low-thrust spacecraft that under more traditional strategies would need to be abandoned to fully-random decay with its inherent higher risk of human casualty.
Bacon, John B.↗
Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards
A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine one of these theoretical assumptions.. This study employs empirical and theoretical information to test the assumption of a fully random decay along the argument of latitude of the final orbit, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of this calculation in the future.
Bacon, John B.↗
Risk Management of Jettisoned Objects in LEO
The construction and maintenance of the International Space Station (ISS) has led to the release of many objects into its orbital plane, usually during the course of an extra-vehicular activity (EVA). Such releases are often unintentional, but in a growing number of cases, the jettison has been intentional, conducted after a careful assessment of the net risk to the partnership and to other objects in space. Since its launch in 1998 the ISS has contributed on average at least one additional debris object that is simultaneously in orbit with the station, although the number varies widely from zero to eight at any one moment. All of these objects present potential risks to other objects in orbit. Whether it comes from known and tracked orbiting objects or from unknown or untrackable objects, collision with orbital debris can have disastrous consequences. Objects greater than 10cm are generally well documented and tracked, allowing orbiting spacecraft or satellites opportunities to perform evasive maneuvers (commonly known as Debris Avoidance Maneuvers, or DAMs) in the event that imminent collision is predicted. The issue with smaller debris; however, is that it is too numerous to be tracked effectively and yet still poses disastrous consequences if it intercepts a larger object. Due to the immense kinetic energy of any item in orbit, collision with debris as small as 1cm can have catastrophic consequences for many orbiting satellites or spacecraft. Faced with the growing orbital debris threat and the potentially catastrophic consequences of a collision-generated debris shower originating in an orbit crossing the ISS altitude band, in 2007 the ISS program manger asked program specialists to coordinate a multilateral jettison policy amongst the ISS partners. This policy would define the acceptable risk trade rationale for intentional release of a debris object, and other mandatory constraints on such jettisons to minimize the residual risks whenever a jettison was accepted. Although ISS-related debris often presents untenable risks to the EVA crew, IVA crew, or to a departing cargo vehicle for a controlled disposal, such released objects also present a ballistic nuisance to the visiting vehicle traffic, and a potential fragmentation threat to the hundreds of other functional and debris objects whose perigees lie below the ISS orbital altitude. Thus, every such jettison decision is a conscious risk trade.
Bacon, John B.↗
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) in Space
The ISS has some significant inventory management challenges. RFID solves many of these, and was deployed 8/2011. Significant issues (some unique to spacecraft) remain. NASA is interested and investing in technologies that will help to overcome the remaining issues.
Bacon, John B.↗
Sizing of "Mother Ship and Catcher" Missions for LEO Small Debris and for GEO Large Object Capture
Most LEO debris lies in a limited number of inclination "bands" associated with specific useful orbits. Objects in such narrow inclination bands have all possible Right Ascensions of Ascending Node (RAANs), creating a different orbit plane for nearly every piece of debris. However, a low-orbiting satellite will always phase in RAAN faster than debris objects in higher orbits at the same inclination, potentially solving the problem. Such a low-orbiting base can serve as a "mother ship" that can tend and then send small, disposable common individual catcher/deboost devices--one for each debris object--as the facility drifts into the same RAAN as each higher object. The dV necessary to catch highly-eccentric orbit debris in the center of the band alternatively allows the capture of less-eccentric debris in a wider inclination range around the center. It is demonstrated that most LEO hazardous debris can be removed from orbit in three years, using a single LEO launch of one mother ship--with its onboard magazine of freeflying low-tech catchers--into each of ten identified bands, with second or potentially third launches into only the three highest-inclination bands. The nearly 1000 objects near the geostationary orbit present special challenges in mass, maneuverability, and ultimate disposal options, leading to a dramatically different architecture and technology suite than the LEO solution. It is shown that the entire population of near-GEO derelict objects can be gathered and tethered together within a 3 year period for future scrap-yard operations using achievable technologies and only two earth launches.
Bacon, John B.↗
Electrostatic Discharge Issues in International Space Station Program EVAs
EVA activity in the ISS program encounters several dangerous ESD conditions. The ISS program has been aggressive for many years to find ways to mitigate or to eliminate the associated risks. Investments have included: (1) Major mods to EVA tools, suit connectors & analytical tools (2) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (3) Plasma Contactor Units (4) Certification of new ISS flight attitudes (5) Teraflops of computation (6) Thousands of hours of work by scores of specialists (7) Monthly management attention at the highest program levels. The risks are now mitigated to a level that is orders of magnitude safer than prior operations
Bacon, John B.↗
Drifting Recovery Base Concept for GEO Derelict Object Capture
Over 250 objects hover within 6 m/sec of perfect geostationary orbit. Over half of these objects lie within 0.1 m/sec of the GEO velocity. Such items have 62% of the total velocity required to achieve Earth gravitational escape. A conceptual architecture is proposed to clean this orbit area of derelict objects while providing a demonstration mission for many facets of future asteroid mining operations. These near-GEO objects average nearly 2000kg each, consisting of (typically functioning) power systems, batteries, and large quantities of components and raw aerospace-grade refined materials. Such a demonstration collection system could capture, collect and remove all GEO derelict objects in an international effort to create a depot of components and of aerospace-grade raw materials--with a total mass greater than that of the International Space Station--as a space scrap depot ready for transfer to lunar or Mars orbit, using only two heavy-lift launches and 2-3 years of on-orbit operations.
Bacon, John B.↗
Sizing of "Mother Ship and Catcher" Concepts for LEO Small Debris Capture
Most Low Earth Orbit (LEO) debris lies in a limited number of inclination "bands" associated with launch latitudes, or with specific useful orbit inclinations (such as polar orbits). Such narrow inclination bands generally have a uniform spread over all possible Right Ascensions of Ascending Node (RAANs), creating a different orbit plane for nearly every piece of debris. This complicates concept of rendezvous and capture for debris removal. However, a low-orbiting satellite will always phase in RAAN faster than debris objects in higher orbits at the same inclination, potentially solving the problem. Such a base can serve as a single space-based launch facility (a "mother ship") that can tend and then send tiny individual catcher devices for each debris object, as the facility drifts into the same RAAN as the higher object. This presentation will highlight characteristic system requirements of such an architecture, including structural and navigation requirements, power, mass and dV budgets for both the mother ship and the mass-produced common catcher devices that would clean out selected inclination bands. The altitude and inclination regime over which a band is to be cleared, the size distribution of the debris, and the inclusion of additional mission priorities all affect the sizing of the system. It is demonstrated that major LEO hazardous debris reductions can be realized in each band with a single LEO launch of a single mother ship, with simple attached catchers of total mass less than typical commercial LEO launch capability.
Bacon, John B.↗
Printed Electronic Devices in Human Spaceflight
The space environment requires robust sensing, control, and automation, whether in support of human spaceflight or of robotic exploration. Spaceflight embodies the known extremes of temperature, radiation, shock, vibration, and static loads, and demands high reliability at the lowest possible mass. Because printed electronic circuits fulfill all these requirements, printed circuit technology and the exploration of space have been closely coupled throughout their short histories. In this presentation, we will explore the space (and space launch) environments as drivers of printed circuit design, a brief history of NASA's use of printed electronic circuits, and we will examine future requirements for such circuits in our continued exploration of space.
Bacon, John B.↗
International Space Station as an Observation Platform for Hypersonic Re-Entry of its Visiting Vehicles
The International Space Station (ISS) will receive an armada of visiting supply vehicles during its life in orbit. Over 500 tons of material will be destroyed in targeted re-entries of these vehicles. Because all such re-entries lie in the same orbital plane of the station, and because the visiting vehicles typically deorbit within a few hours of departure, the ISS will usually be within sight of the re-entry process, at a range of only 300-600 kilometers. This vantage point offers an unprecedented opportunity for systematically measuring hypersonic destructive processes. This paper examines the integrated operational constraints of the ISS, its supply vehicles, and candidate sensors which can be employed in the scientific observation of the re-entry process. It is asserted the ISS program has the potential to reduce the worldwide risks from future deorbiting spacecraft, through systematic experimental characterization of the factors which affect the rupture, debris survival, and footprint size of its visiting vehicle fleet.
Bacon, John B.↗