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Bakker, Craig

Publications and source records attributed to Bakker, Craig.

4 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal control of polar sea-ice near its tipping points

Abstract Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid, irreversible qualitative changes or “tipping” with increasing climate warming. It is therefore necessary to investigate the feasibility of arresting or even reversing the crossing of tipping thresholds. Here, we study feedback control of an idealized energy balance model (EBM) for Earth’s climate, which exhibits a “small icecap” instability responsible for a rapid transition to an ice-free climate under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We develop an optimal control strategy for the EBM under different forcing scenarios to reverse sea-ice loss while minimizing costs. Control is achievable for this system, but the cost nearly quadruples once the system tips. While thermal inertia may delay tipping, leading to an overshoot of the critical forcing threshold, this leeway comes with a steep rise in requisite control once tipping occurs. Additionally, we find that the optimal control is localized in the polar region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Profitability, Scalability and Optimized Siting for Waste-to-Energy Supply Chains: A Case Study on Hydrothermal Liquefaction

Waste-to-Energy (WtE) conversion technologies have the potential to simultaneously reduce waste volumes, treatment-related emissions, and carbon intensity while producing valuable energy services. However, questions remain regarding under which conditions emerging WtE technologies are feasible to deploy. In this project, we develop an optimized siting method for WtE technologies to assess cost-effective WtE processor locations, throughput scales, and profitability. We apply the model using Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) as an example WtE technology. We develop calibrated capital and operating expense cost curves based on literature data to study the techno-economic characteristics of WtE supply chains. Prior to solving the siting optimization, we analyze the model parameters to describe organic waste management system behavior under four different HTL deployment configurations: Co-Processing, where HTL plants send biocrude to existing conventional refineries via assumed pipelines; Co-Location, where biorefineries are co-located with HTL plants; and two alternative Standalone Biorefining cases, where distributed HTL plants transport biocrude intermediate via either assumed pipelines or trucking to centralized biorefineries. We also define and apply several feedstock gate fee calculations, representing different revenue distribution options, to investigate how bioproduct value could impact WtE supply chain economics in terms of waste producer and processor profit or cost reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Cyber-Physical Resilience for Building Control Systems

The main goal of the project is to develop an AI-based process layer cybersecurity suite for detection, isolation and mitigation of cyber-attack effects on operation of building energy management systems (BEMS). The following constituent key technologies were developed under the program towards fulfilling the program objectives: (1) developed a high fidelity BEMS testbed for generation of training data and validation of developed technologies; (2) developed a physics informed ML based attack detection and localization module (ADL) capable of detecting high impact stealthy attacks (HISA - attacks causing 30% energy utilization but no immediate visible impact otherwise) with 98% accuracy; (3) developed a methodology to determine ’representative days’ to limit the data required for training; (4) developed a virtual sensing system that can reconstruct affected sensors with 10% error for the same HISA set; (5) developed a resilient model predictive control system that can continue operation of the BEMS without jeopardizing stability for the HISA set; and (6) integrated and deployed all the constituent modules and demonstrated the efficacy of the technology in real-time in a hardware in loop simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗