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Bell, Ann Maria

Publications and source records attributed to Bell, Ann Maria.

Alternative Metrics for Evaluating the Resilence of Advanced Life Support Systems

Ensuring the safety of the crew is a key performance requirement of a life support system. However, a number of conceptual and practical difficulties arise when devising metrics to concretely measure the ability of a life support system to maintain critical functions in the presence of anticipated and unanticipated faults. Resilience is a dynamic property of a life support system that depends on the complex interactions between faults, controls and system hardware. We review some of the approaches to understanding the robustness or resilience of complex systems being developed in diverse fields such as ecology, software engineering and cell biology and discuss their applicability to regenerative life support systems. We also consider how approaches to measuring resilience vary depending on system design choices such as the definition and choice of the nominal operating regime. Finally, we explore data collection and implementation issues such as the key differences between the instantaneous or conditional and average or overall measures of resilience. Extensive simulation of a hybrid computational model of a water revitalization subsystem (WRS) with probabilistic, component-level faults provides data about off-nominal behavior of the system. The data are used to consider alternative measures of resilience as predictors of the system's ability to recover from component-level faults.

Bell, Ann Maria↗

Measuring the Resilience of Advanced Life Support Systems

Despite the central importance of crew safety in designing and operating a life support system, the metric commonly used to evaluate alternative Advanced Life Support (ALS) technologies does not currently provide explicit techniques for measuring safety. The resilience of a system, or the system s ability to meet performance requirements and recover from component-level faults, is fundamentally a dynamic property. This paper motivates the use of computer models as a tool to understand and improve system resilience throughout the design process. Extensive simulation of a hybrid computational model of a water revitalization subsystem (WRS) with probabilistic, component-level faults provides data about off-nominal behavior of the system. The data can then be used to test alternative measures of resilience as predictors of the system s ability to recover from component-level faults. A novel approach to measuring system resilience using a Markov chain model of performance data is also developed. Results emphasize that resilience depends on the complex interaction of faults, controls, and system dynamics, rather than on simple fault probabilities.

Bell, Ann Maria↗

Reinforcement Learning in a Nonstationary Environment: The El Farol Problem

This paper examines the performance of simple learning rules in a complex adaptive system based on a coordination problem modeled on the El Farol problem. The key features of the El Farol problem are that it typically involves a medium number of agents and that agents' pay-off functions have a discontinuous response to increased congestion. First we consider a single adaptive agent facing a stationary environment. We demonstrate that the simple learning rules proposed by Roth and Er'ev can be extremely sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions and that events early in a simulation can affect the performance of the rule over a relatively long time horizon. In contrast, a reinforcement learning rule based on standard practice in the computer science literature converges rapidly and robustly. The situation is reversed when multiple adaptive agents interact: the RE algorithms often converge rapidly to a stable average aggregate attendance despite the slow and erratic behavior of individual learners, while the CS based learners frequently over-attend in the early and intermediate terms. The symmetric mixed strategy equilibria is unstable: all three learning rules ultimately tend towards pure strategies or stabilize in the medium term at non-equilibrium probabilities of attendance. The brittleness of the algorithms in different contexts emphasize the importance of thorough and thoughtful examination of simulation-based results.

Bell, Ann Maria↗