Engineering topics

Berntsen, T. K.

Publications and source records attributed to Berntsen, T. K..

5 records

NASA NTRS2013

Tropospheric Ozone Changes, Radiative Forcing and Attribution to Emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (+/-1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/-17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/-10 percent. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/-3 percent. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/-30 percent for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44+/-12 percent), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 percent), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 percent) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 percent); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(−2) DU(−1), a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(−2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2013

Black Carbon Vertical Profiles Strongly Affect Its Radiative Forcing Uncertainty

The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

black carbon↗

NASA NTRS2013

Radiative Forcing of the Direct Aerosol Effect from AeroCom Phase II Simulations

We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02 W m(sup−2), with a mean of −0.27 W m(sup−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35 W m(sup−2). Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results

Computer simulation↗

NASA NTRS1998

Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key findings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not been responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40degN; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

Danilin, M. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key Endings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not be responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40 deg N; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

Danilin, M. Y.↗