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Beyeler, Walter Eugene

Publications and source records attributed to Beyeler, Walter Eugene.

Socioeconomically-inspired modeling to justify use of fine-grain mobility data

When designing measures to control infectious disease spread, it is crucial to understand the structure of the population for which interventions are being implemented. Recent work has highlighted the need for models that incorporate demographic heterogeneity not just in age structure but also by socioeconomic status (SES). Appropriately capturing additional sources of population heterogeneity requires considerable data and model development. To understand the potential disagreement between SES-explicit or SES-agnostic disease models, we adapted Sandia’s Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) model to consider differences in contact structure and mortality by Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) on a theoretical network. We also incorporated an Average network that did not consider SVI. By exploring disparities in vaccine and PPE uptake by SES and comparing to Average networks, as well as analyzing the influence of global vs. local contact, we found that the two model constructions often predicted different outcomes. Whether these differences are truly reflective of incorporating SES, and which model most closely represents reality, merits further investigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A Demand-driven, Capacity-constrained, Adaptive Algorithm for Computing Steady-state and Transient Flows in a Petroleum Transportation Network

We developed an algorithm to perform simulations of a supply network for crude oil and refined products in order to estimate the consequences of disruptions to components of the network. Components include oil fields, import terminals, refineries, transmission pipelines, tank farms, and distribution terminals. The physical system is represented as network connections, capacities, and inventories. The governing equations describe mass balance in a non-linear diffusive system in which flows in the network are along gradients in a potential field. Each node in the network has a defined storage capacity and desired storage amount. The potential at each node is a function of the difference between the actual and desired amount of fluid stored. The potential can be thought of as the balance between the desire to increase inflows to maintain the desired storage level and the willingness to provide fluid for consumption or outflow to downstream nodes.

02 PETROLEUM↗