Engineering topics

Bhartia, P. K.

Publications and source records attributed to Bhartia, P. K..

At least 109 records · Page 6

NASA NTRS2002

Aura Science and Validation

The EOS-Aura Mission is designed to answer three basic questions concerning the Earth's atmosphere: 1) Is ozone recovering as predicted, 2) is air quality getting worse, and 3) how is climate changing? Aura's four instruments work synergistically and are dedicated to answering these questions. These questions relate to NASA Earth Science Enterprise's overall strategic questions, which seek to understand the consequences of climate change for human civilization and determine if these changes can be predicted. NASA supports an ongoing research and analysis program, which is conducted independently and in support of satellite missions. The research program conducts several on-going field campaigns employing aircraft, balloons, and ground based systems. These campaigns have focused on exploring processes in the tropics, high latitudes, and continental outflow to explain the chemistry and transport in the troposphere and stratosphere and how these regions interact. NASA is now studying how the Aura mission and requirements of the research and analysis program might be merged to achieve its strategic goals related to global atmospheric chemistry changes. In addition, NASA field campaign resources will be folded into Aura's validation requirements. Aura validation requires correlative measurements throughout the troposphere and stratosphere under a range of observing and geophysical conditions. Because of the recent launches of Envisat and other smaller international chemistry satellites, the NASA program plans to collaborate with European space agencies in developing a series of campaigns that will provide continuity between those satellites missions and Aura.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Overview of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite: Observations from 1991 to 2002

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) was launched in September 1991 by the Space Shuttle Discovery. Seven of the original ten instruments aboard the UARS are functional and six instruments regularly take measurements. The UARS is in a stable observing configuration, in spite of experiencing several anomalies which have impacted the data tape storage and power available. Power sharing and "real-time" operations using the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites have reduced the data collection over the past five years. Although the UARS measurements have not been continuous, the UARS instruments HALOE, SUSIM, SOLSTICE, HRDI, WINDII, and PEM have provided important observations over an entire solar cycle. The UARS HALOE instrument measures ozone and other constituents important in understanding ozone variations. The UARS SUSIM and SOLSTICE instruments observe ultraviolet light between 120 and 420 nm, which influence middle atmospheric constituent fluctuations. The UARS HRDI and WINDII instruments measure winds in the stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere, which move constituents among the various atmospheric regions. The UARS PEM instrument provides observations of input precipitating charged particles, including both electrons and protons. This paper will provide an overview about the UARS mission and its relevant atmospheric measurements.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Ozone Depletion from Nearby Supernovae

Estimates made in the 1970's indicated that a supernova occurring within tens of parsecs of Earth could have significant effects on the ozone layer. Since that time improved tools for detailed modeling of atmospheric chemistry have been developed to calculate ozone depletion, and advances have been made also in theoretical modeling of supernovae and of the resultant gamma ray spectra. In addition, one now has better knowledge of the occurrence rate of supernovae in the galaxy, and of the spatial distribution of progenitors to core-collapse supernovae. We report here the results of two-dimensional atmospheric model calculations that take as input the spectral energy distribution of a supernova, adopting various distances from Earth and various latitude impact angles. In separate simulations we calculate the ozone depletion due to both gamma rays and cosmic rays. We find that for the combined ozone depletion from these effects roughly to double the 'biologically active' UV flux received at the surface of the Earth, the supernova must occur at approximately or less than 8 parsecs.

Gehrels, Neil↗

NASA NTRS2002

Chemistry-Transport Modeling of the Satellite Observed Distribution of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

We have compared the 14-year record of satellite derived tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOC) from the NIMBUS-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) to TTOC calculated by a chemistry-transport model (CTM). An objective measure of error, based on the zonal distribution of TTOC in the tropics, is applied to perform this comparison systematically. In addition, the sensitivity of the model to several key processes in the tropics is quantified to select directions for future improvements. The comparisons indicate a widespread, systematic (20%) discrepancy over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which maximizes during austral Spring. Although independent evidence from ozonesondes shows that some of the disagreement is due to satellite over-estimate of TTOC, the Atlantic mismatch is largely due to a misrepresentation of seasonally recurring processes in the model. Only minor differences between the model and observations over the Pacific occur, mostly due to interannual variability not captured by the model. Although chemical processes determine the TTOC extent, dynamical processes dominate the TTOC distribution, as the use of actual meteorology pertaining to the year of observations always leads to a better agreement with TTOC observations than using a random year or a climatology. The modeled TTOC is remarkably insensitive to many model parameters due to efficient feedbacks in the ozone budget. Nevertheless, the simulations would profit from an improved biomass burning calendar, as well as from an increase in NOX abundances in free tropospheric biomass burning plumes. The model showed the largest response to lightning NOX emissions, but systematic improvements could not be found. The use of multi-year satellite derived tropospheric data to systematically test and improve a CTM is a promising new addition to existing methods of model validation, and is a first step to integrating tropospheric satellite observations into global ozone modeling studies. Conversely,the CTM may suggest improvements to evolving satellite retrievals for tropospheric ozone.

Peters, Wouter↗

NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard ED photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Variability in Ozone in the Tropical Upper Troposphere-Lower Stratosphere from the 1998-2000 SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) Data

The first view of lower stratospheric and upper tropospheric structure from sondes is provided by a 3-year, 10-site record from the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network: . Observations covering 1998-2000 were made over Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Taking the UT/LS (upper troposphere- lower stratosphere) as the region between 12 and 17 km, we examine ozone variability in this region on a week-to-week and seasonal basis. The tropopause is lower in September-October-November than in March-April-May, when ozone is a minimum at most SHADOZ stations. A zonal wave-one pattern (referring to ozone mixing ratios greater over the Atlantic and adjacent continents than over the Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean), persists all year. The wave, predominantly in the troposphere and with variable magnitude, appears to be due to general circulation - with subsidence over the Atlantic and frequent deep convection over the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The variability of deep convection most prominent at Java, Fiji, Samoa and Natal - is explored in time-vs-altitude ozone curtains. Stratospheric incursions into the troposphere are most prominent in soundings at Irene and Reunion Island.

Thompson, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Distribution of Ozone in the Early Stages of Polar Vortex Development

Previous analysis has shown that the distribution of O3 at high northern latitudes in the lower-to-middle stratosphere at the beginning of the winter season, 1999-2000 has a characteristic distribution, which is consistent between in situ and satellite measurements [Kawa et al., The Interaction Between Dynamics and Chemistry of Ozone in the Set-up Phase of the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex, submitted manuscript, 2001 ]. Initial O3 profiles in the vortex are similar to each other and are quite different from outside the vortex at the same latitude and also from a zonal mean climatology. In the vortex, O3 is nearly constant from 500 to above 800 K with a value at 3 ppmv +/- approx.10%. Values outside the vortex are up to a factor of 2 higher and increase significantly with potential temperature. The seasonal time series of POAM data shows that relatively low O3 mixing ratios, which characterize the vortex in late fall, are already present at high latitudes at the end of summer in September before the vortex circulation sets up. This suggests a possible feedback role between O3 chemistry and the formation of the vortex, which is dominated by the seasonal radiation balance. Here we show that these characteristic O3 distributions are consistent from year to year and between the hemispheres. We will attempt to determine whether variations in fall vortex O3 are related in any way to O3 abundances and vortex structure later during winter and into spring.

Kawa, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional Ozonesondes}: What Have We Learned About Tropical Tropospheric Ozone from the First Three Years (1998-2000) Data

The first climatological overview of total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere tropical and subtropics is based on ozone sounding data from 10 sites comprising the Southern Hemisphere Additional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The period covered is 1998-2000. Observations were made over: Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Campaign data were collected on an Trans-Atlantic oceanographic cruise and during SAFARI-2000 in Zambia. The ozone data, with simultaneous temperature profiles to approximately 7 hPa and relative humidity to approximately 200 hPa, reside at: . SHADOZ ozone time-series and profiles give a perspective on tropical total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone in 1998-2000. Prominent features are highly variable tropospheric ozone, a zonal wave-one pattern in total (and tropospheric) column ozone, and signatures of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in stratospheric ozone. Total, stratospheric and tropospheric column ozone amounts peak between August and November and are lowest between March and May. Tropospheric ozone variability over the Indian and Pacific Ocean displays influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole, and convective mixing. Pollution transport from Africa, South American and the Maritime Continent is a seasonal feature. Tropospheric ozone seasonality over the Atlantic Basin shows effects of regional subsidence and recirculation as well as biomass burning. Dynamical and chemical influences appear to be of comparable magnitude though model studies are needed to quantify this.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Cross Calibration of TOMS, SBUV/2 and SCIAMACHY Radiances from Ground Observations

We have shown that validation of radiances is a very effective means for correcting absolute accuracy and long term drifts of backscatter type satellite measurements. This method by-passes the algorithms used for both satellite and ground based measurements which are normally used to validate and correct the satellite data. A new method for satellite validation is planned which will compliment measurements from the existing ground-based networks. This method will employ very accurate comparisons between ground based zenith sky radiances and satellite nadir radiances. These comparisons will rely heavily on the experience derived from the Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) program which provided a reference standard of radiance measurements for SBUV/2, TOMS, and GOME. This new measurement program, called 'Skyrad', employs two well established capabilities at the Goddard Space Flight Center, 1) the SSBUV calibration facilities and 2) the radiative transfer codes used for the TOMS and SBUV/2 algorithms and their subsequent refinements. Radiative transfer calculations show that ground based zenith sky and satellite nadir backscatter ultraviolet comparisons can be made very accurately under certain viewing conditions. The Skyrad instruments (SSBUV, Brewer spectrophotometers, and possibly others) will be calibrated and maintained to a precision of a few tenths of a percent. Skyrad data will then enable long term calibration of upcoming satellite instruments such as QuickTOMS, SBUV/2s and SCIAMACHY with a high degree of precision. This technique can be further employed to monitor the performance of future instruments such as GOMEZ, OMI, and OMPS. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Hilsenrath, Ernest↗

NASA NTRS2002

Science Objectives of EOS-Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

OMI is a UV/VIS nadir solar backscatter spectrograph, which provides near global coverage in one day with a spatial resolution of 13 x 24 sq km. OMI is a new instrument, with a heritage from the European satellite instruments GOME, GOMOS and SCIAMACHY. OMI's unique capabilities for measuring important trace gases with a small footprint and daily global coverage, in conjunction with the other Aura instruments, will make a major contribution to our understanding of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry and climate change. OMI will measure solar irradiance and Earth radiances in the wavelength range of 270 to 500 nm with spectral resolution of about 0.5 nm and a spectral sampling of about 2-3 per FWHM. From these observations, total columns of O3, NO2, BrO and SO2 will be derived from the back-scattered solar radiance using differential absorption spectroscopy (DOAS). The TOMS total ozone record will also be continued by employing the well established TOMS algorithm. Because of the high accuracy and spatial resolution of the measurements, a good estimate of tropospheric amounts of ozone and NO2 are expected. Ozone profiles will be derived using the optimal estimation method. The spectral aerosol optical depth will be determined from measurements between 340 and 500 nm. This will provide information on aerosol concentration, aerosol size distribution and aerosol type. This wavelength range makes it possible to retrieve aerosol information over both land and sea. OMI observations will also allow retrievals of cloud coverage and cloud heights. From these products, the UV-B flux at the surface can then be derived with high spatial resolution.

Levelt, P. F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Upper Tropospheric Ozone Between Latitudes 60S and 60N Derived from Nimbus 7 TOMS/THIR Cloud Slicing

This study evaluates the spatial distributions and seasonal cycles in upper tropospheric ozone (pressure range 200-500 hPa) from low to high latitudes (60S to 60N) derived from the satellite retrieval method called "Cloud Slicing." Cloud Slicing is a unique technique for determining ozone profile information in the troposphere by combining co-located measurements of cloud-top, pressure and above-cloud column ozone. For upper tropospheric ozone, co-located measurements of Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) above-cloud column ozone, and Nimbus 7 Temperature Humidity Infrared Radiometer (THIR) cloud-top pressure during 1979-1984 were incorporated. In the tropics, upper tropospheric ozone shows year-round enhancement in the Atlantic region and evidence of a possible semiannual variability. Upper tropospheric ozone outside the tropics shows greatest abundance in winter and spring seasons in both hemispheres with largest seasonal and largest amounts in the NH. These characteristics are similar to lower stratospheric ozone. Comparisons of upper tropospheric column ozone with both stratospheric ozone and a proxy of lower stratospheric air mass (i.e., tropopause pressure) from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) suggest that stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) may be a significant source for the seasonal variability of upper tropospheric ozone almost everywhere between 60S and 60N except in low latitudes around 10S to 25N where other sources (e.g., tropospheric transport, biomass burning, aerosol effects, lightning, etc.) may have a greater role.

Ziemke, Jerald R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Derivation of Tropospheric Column Ozone from the EPTOMS/GOES Co-Located Data Sets using the Cloud Slicing Technique

A recently developed technique called cloud slicing used for deriving upper tropospheric ozone from the Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument combined together with temperature-humidity and infrared radiometer (THIR) is no longer applicable to the Earth Probe TOMS (EPTOMS) because EPTOMS does not have an instrument to measure cloud top temperatures. For continuing monitoring of tropospheric ozone between 200-500hPa and testing the feasibility of this technique across spacecrafts, EPTOMS data are co-located in time and space with the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-8 infrared data for 2001 and early 2002, covering most of North and South America (45S-45N and 120W-30W). The maximum column amounts for the mid-latitudinal sites of the northern hemisphere are found in the March-May season. For the mid-latitudinal sites of the southern hemisphere, the highest column amounts are found in the September-November season, although overall seasonal variability is smaller than those of the northern hemisphere. The tropical sites show the weakest seasonal variability compared to higher latitudes. The derived results for selected sites are cross validated qualitatively with the seasonality of ozonesonde observations and the results from THIR analyses over the 1979-1984 time period due to the lack of available ozonesonde measurements to study sites for 2001. These comparisons show a reasonably good agreement among THIR, ozonesonde observations, and cloud slicing-derived column ozone. With very limited co-located EPTOMS/GOES data sets, the cloud slicing technique is still viable to derive the upper tropospheric column ozone. Two new variant approaches, High-Low (HL) cloud slicing and ozone profile derivation from cloud slicing are introduced to estimate column ozone amounts using the entire cloud information in the troposphere.

Ahn, C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard 2D photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Interannual Variability of Ozone in the Polar Vortex during the Fall Season

Previous analysis has shown that the distribution of O3 at high northern latitudes in the lower-to-middle stratosphere at the beginning of the winter season has a characteristic distribution, which is consistent between in situ and satellite measurements. Initial O3 profiles in the vortex are similar to each other and are quite different from outside the vortex at the same latitude and also from a zonal mean climatology. In the vortex, O3 is nearly constant from 500 to above 800 K with a value near 3 ppmv. Values outside the vortex are up to a factor of 2 higher and increase significantly with potential temperature. Model analysis indicates that the characteristic vortex O3 profiles arise from a combination of seasonally accelerated photochemical loss at high latitudes and minimal transport of air from lower latitudes. Analysis of the relatively high-resolution POAM data shows that these characteristic O3 distributions are consistent from year to year and between the hemispheres. Here we emphasize analysis of the 24-year time series of O3 data from SBUV in the lower-to-middle stratosphere at high latitudes in the fall vortex. We find that the variability of O3 from SBUV is relatively small in this regime and no significant trend is detectable. The implications of the findings for stratospheric O3 chemistry and transport will be explored.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Effect of Transport and Circulation Differences on Stratospheric Ozone Recovery in Two 35-year Three-dimensional Simulations

The NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has completed two 35-year simulations with WMO future baseline boundary conditions that simulate increasing N2O and CH4 emissions and decreasing organic chlorine and bromine emissions. Simulations were done with the GMI offline chemistry and transport model using 1) 1 year of winds from the Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FV-GCM), repeated for the 35 years, and 2) 1 year of winds from the Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS), repeated for 35-years. The simulations have full stratospheric chemistry. To understand differences in simulated ozone recoveries, basic transport and circulation differences between these models are evaluated. The distribution of mean age of stratospheric air in the FV-GCM run agrees well with observations in the lower stratosphere but the FV-DAS ages are generally too low. This implies circulation and mixing differences that will affect the distributions of other trace species such as CH4, NO, and the organic halogens, all of which are responding to changing boundary conditions and are involved in ozone loss. Realism of model transport is evaluated, with particular attention given to regions and seasons where ozone recovery is expected. Preliminary results indicate increasing ozone trends in the lowermost stratosphere in summer and in the Antarctic and Arctic lower stratosphere in winter and spring.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

What Controls the Size of the Antarctic Ozone Hole?

The Antarctic ozone hole is a region of extremely large ozone depletion that is roughly centered over the South Pole. Since 1979, the area coverage of the ozone hole has grown from near zero size to over 24 Million square kilometers. In the 8-year period from 1981 to 1989, the area expanded by 18 Million square kilometers. During the last 5 years, the hole has been observed to exceed 25 Million square kilometers over brief periods. We will review these size observations, the size trends, and the interannual variability of the size. The area is derived from the area enclosed by the 220 DU total ozone contour. We will discuss the rationale for the choice of 220 DU: 1) it is located near the steep gradient between southern mid-latitudes and the polar region, and 2) 220 DU is a value that is lower than the pre- 1979 ozone observations over Antarctica during the spring period. The phenomenal growth of the ozone hole was directly caused by the increases of chlorine and bromine compounds in the stratosphere. In this talk, we will show the relationship of the ozone hole's size to the interannual variability of Antarctic spring temperatures. In addition, we will show the relationship of these same temperatures to planetary-scale wave forcings.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Interaction Between Dynamics and Chemistry of Ozone in the Set-up Phase of the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex

The morphology and evolution of the stratospheric ozone (O3) distribution at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are examined for the late summer and fall seasons of 1999. This time period sets the O3 initial condition for the SOLVE/THESEO field mission performed during winter 1999-2000. In situ and satellite data are used along with a three-dimensional model of chemistry and transport (CTM) to determine the key processes that control the distribution of O3 in the lower-to-middle stratosphere. O3 in the vortex at the beginning of the winter season is found to be nearly constant from 500 to above 800 K with a value at 3 ppmv +/- approx. 10%. Values outside the vortex are up to a factor of 2 higher and increase significantly with potential temperature. The seasonal time series of data from POAM shows that relatively low O3 mixing ratios, which characterize the vortex in late fall, are already present at high latitudes at the end of summer before the vortex circulation sets up. Analysis of the CTM output shows that the minimum O3 and increase in variance in late summer are the result of: 1) stirring of polar concentric O3 gradients by nascent wave-driven transport, and 2) an acceleration of net photochemical loss with decreasing solar illumination. The segregation of low O3 mixing ratios into the vortex as the circulation strengthens through the fall suggests a possible feedback role between O3 chemistry and the vortex formation dynamics. Trajectory calculations from O3 sample points early in the fall, however, show only a weak correlation between initial O3 mixing ratio and potential vorticity later in the season consistent with order-of-magnitude calculations for the relative importance of O3 in the fall radiative balance at high latitudes. The possible connection between O3 chemistry and the dynamics of vortex formation does suggest that these feedbacks and sensitivities need to be better understood in order to make confident predictions of the recovery of NH O3.

Kawa, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Solar Cycle Variations and Equatorial Oscillations: Modeling Study

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle, It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes referred to as "downward control". Relatively small changes in solar radiative forcing can produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but this in turn can produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D (two-dimensional) version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1 % at the surface to 1 % at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is inconsequential. At 20-km the differences in the modeled wind velocities are as large as 5 m/s. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing (through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)) acts as a strong pacemaker to lockup the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with the QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux radiance variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase that amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. These variations also extend to mid latitudes.

Mayr, H. G.↗