A new evaluation of the uncertainty associated with CDIAC estimates of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Boden, Thomas A.
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This synthesis discusses the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production. While much is known about these emissions, there is still much that is unknown about the details surrounding these emissions. This synthesis explores 5 our knowledge of these emissions in terms of why there is concern about them; how they are calculated; the major global efforts on inventorying them; their global, regional, and national totals at different spatial and temporal scales; how they are distributed on global grids (i.e. maps); how they are transported in models; and the uncertainties associated with these different aspects of the emissions. The magnitude of emissions 10 from the combustion of fossil fuels has been almost continuously increasing with time since fossil fuels were first used by humans. Despite events in some nations specifically designed to reduce emissions, or which have had emissions reduction as a byproduct of other events, global total emissions continue their general increase with time. Global total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are known to within 10% uncertainty (95% 15 confidence interval). Uncertainty on individual national total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions range from a few percent to more than 50 %. The information discussed in this manuscript synthesizes global, regional and national fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions, their distributions, their transport, and the associated uncertainties.
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production grew 5.9% in 2010, surpassed 9 Pg of carbon (Pg C) for the first time, and more than offset the 1.4% decrease in 2009. The impact of the 2008 2009 global financial crisis (GFC) on emissions has been short-lived owing to strong emissions growth in emerging economies, a return to emissions growth in developed economies, and an increase in the fossil-fuel intensity of the world economy.
This paper examines available data, develops a strategy and presents a monthly, global time series of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions for the years 1950 2006. This monthly time series was constructed from detailed study of monthly data from the 21 countries that account for approximately 80% of global total emissions. These data were then used in a Monte Carlo approach to proxy for all remaining countries. The proportional-proxy methodology estimates by fuel group the fraction of annual emissions emitted in each country and month. Emissions from solid, liquid and gas fuels are explicitly modelled by the proportional-proxy method. The primary conclusion from this study is the global monthly time series is statistically significantly different from a uniform distribution throughout the year. Uncertainty analysis of the data presented show that the proportional-proxy method used faithfully reproduces monthly patterns in the data and the global monthly pattern of emissions is relatively insensitive to the exact proxy assignments used. The data and results presented here should lead to a better understanding of global and regional carbon cycles, especially when the mass data are combined with the stable carbon isotope data in atmospheric transport models.
Emissions of CO2 are the main contributor to anthropogenic climate change. Here we present updated information on their present and near-future estimates. We calculate that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning decreased by 1.3% in 2009 owing to the global financial and economic crisis that started in 2008; this is half the decrease anticipated a year ago1. If economic growth proceeds as expected2, emissions are projected to increase by more than 3% in 2010, approaching the high emissions growth rates that were observed from 2000 to 20081, 3, 4. We estimate that recent CO2 emissions from deforestation and other land-use changes (LUCs) have declined compared with the 1990s, primarily because of reduced rates of deforestation in the tropics5 and a smaller contribution owing to forest regrowth elsewhere.