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Bolten, John D.

Publications and source records attributed to Bolten, John D..

Developing a strategy for the national coordinated soil moisture monitoring network

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, affecting a wide variety of climatological, agricultural, and hydrological processes. Determining the current soil moisture status is possible via a variety of methods, including in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Although all of these approaches are rapidly evolving, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to integrate these diverse information sources to develop and disseminate coordinated national soil moisture products that will improve our ability to understand climate variability. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network initiative has developed a national strategy for network coordination with NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System. The strategy is currently in review within NOAA, and work is underway to implement the initial milestones of the strategy. This update reviews the goals and steps being taken to establish this national-scale coordination for soil moisture monitoring in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilizing Satellite Based Observations and Physical Hydrological Modeling for Freshwater Ecosystem Health in the Lower Mekong River Basin

Freshwater availability is necessary to promote economic growth through agriculture, fisheries, transport, environmental health, and social equity.The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Conservation International (CI) are partnering to use remote sensing Earth observations to improve regional efforts that assess natural resources for conservation and sustainable management. (Vollmer et al.,2018) have presented the social-ecological framework named the Freshwater Health Index (FHI), which takes account of the interplay between governance, stakeholders, freshwater ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.In this work, we develop decision support and making tools for natural resources conservation in the Lower Mekong by leveraging the FHI framework, multiple data products, and hydrological modeling capabilities (Mohammed et al., 2018). Modeling capabilities enable the integration of satellite-based daily gridded precipitation, air temperature, digital elevation model, soil characteristics, and land cover and land use information to simulate water flux framework.

Mohammed, Ibrahim N.↗

Evaluating the Operational Application of SMAP for Global Agricultural Drought Monitoring

Over the past two decades, remote sensing has made possible the routine global monitoring of surface soil moisture. Regionalagricultural drought monitoring is one of the most logicalapplication areas for such monitoring. However, remote sensing alone provides soil moisture information for only the top few centimetersof the soil profile, while agricultural drought monitoring requires knowledge of the amount of water present in the entireroot zone. The assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture productsinto continuous soil water balance models provides a way ofaddressing this shortcoming. Here, we describe the assimilationof NASA's soil moisture active passive (SMAP) surface soil moisture data into the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Palmer model and assess the impactof SMAP on USDA FAS drought monitoring capabilities. Theassimilation of SMAP is specifically designed to enhance the model skill and the USDA FAS drought capabilities by correcting for randomerrors inherent in its rainfall forcing data. The performanceof this SMAP-based assimilation system is evaluated using two approaches.At global scale, the accuracy of the system is assessed by examining the lagged correlation agreement between soil moistureand the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Additional regional-scale evaluation using in situ-based soil moisture estimatesis carried out at seven of the SMAP core Cal/Val sites located in theUSA. Both types of analysis demonstrate the value of assimilating SMAP into the USDA FAS Palmer model and its potential to enhance operational USDA FAS root-zone soil moisture information.

Mladenova, Iliana E.↗

Satellite-Based Assessment of Grassland Conversion and Related Fire Disturbance in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Spruce beetle-induced (Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby)) mortality on the Kenai Peninsula has heightened local wildfire risk as canopy loss facilitates the conversion from bare to fire-prone grassland. We collected images from NASA satellite-based Earth observations to visualize land cover succession at roughly five-year intervals following a severe, mid-1990's beetle infestation to the present. We classified these data by vegetation cover type to quantify grassland encroachment patterns over time. Raster band math provided a change detection analysis on the land cover classifications. Results indicate the highest wildfire risk is linked to herbaceous and black spruce land cover types, The resulting land cover change image will give the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge (KENWR) ecologists a better understanding of where forests have converted to grassland since the 1990s. These classifications provided a foundation for us to integrate digital elevation models (DEMs), temperature, and historical fire data into a model using Python for assessing and mapping changes in wildfire risk. Spatial representations of this risk will contribute to a better understanding of ecological trajectories of beetle-affected landscapes, thereby informing management decisions at KENWR.

Risk modeling↗

Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes II

Water resources management can benefit from applications of remote sensing and hydrologic models. These tools can be especially valuable during extreme events and in data-sparse regions. Observational platforms include the GPM, SMAP, Terra, Aqua, Landsat, GRACE, and Sentinel satellites, and other satellite and airborne platforms. They can support the operational water resources management community in responding to climate change, increases in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events. This session will highlight advances in the use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: measure the quantity/quality of hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally; provide information to water managers to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics of interest include (1) extreme events such as floods and droughts; (2) water supply and snow water resource monitoring and forecasting; (3) evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, and agricultural water management; (4) water quality and (5) global water sustainability.

Bolten, John D.↗

H53E: Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes I

Water resources management can benefit from applications of remote sensing and hydrologic models. These tools can be especially valuable during extreme events and in data-sparse regions. Observational platforms include the GPM, SMAP, Terra, Aqua, Landsat, GRACE, and Sentinel satellites, and other satellite and airborne platforms. They can support the operational water resources management community in responding to climate change, increases in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events. This session will highlight advances in the use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: measure the quantity/quality of hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally; provide information to water managers to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics of interest include (1) extreme events such as floods and droughts; (2) water supply and snow water resource monitoring and forecasting; (3) evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, and agricultural water management; (4) water quality and (5) global water sustainability.

Remote Sensing↗

Developing Land Use Land Cover Maps for the Lower Mekong Basin to Aid Hydrologic Modeling and Basin Planning

This paper discusses research methodology to develop Land Use Land Cover (LULC) mapsfor the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) for basin planning, using both MODIS and Landsat satellitedata. The 2010 MODIS MOD09 and MYD09 8-day reflectance data was processed into monthlyNDVI maps with the Time Series Product Tool software package and then used to classify regionallycommon forest and agricultural LULC types. Dry season circa 2010 Landsat top of atmosphere reflectance mosaics were classified to map locally common LULC types. Unsupervised ISODATAclustering was used to derive most LULC classifications. MODIS and Landsat classifications werecombined with GIS methods to derive final 250-m LULC maps for Sub-basins (SBs) 1–8 of the LMB.The SB 7 LULC map with 14 classes was assessed for accuracy. This assessment compared randomlocations for sampled types on the SB 7 LULC map to geospatial reference data such as Landsat RGBs,MODIS NDVI phenologic profiles, high resolution satellite data, and Mekong River Commissiondata (e.g., crop calendars). The SB 7 LULC map showed an overall agreement to reference data of~81%. By grouping three deciduous forest classes into one, the overall agreement improved to ~87%.The project enabled updated regional LULC maps that included more detailed agriculture LULCtypes. LULC maps were supplied to project partners to improve use of Soil andWater AssessmentTool for modeling hydrology and water use, plus enhance LMB water and disaster managementin a region vulnerable to flooding, droughts, and anthropogenic change as part of basin planningand assessment.

land use land cover mapping; SWAT hydrologic model↗

Enhancing the USDA FAS Crop Forecasting System Using SMAP L3 Soil Moisture Observations

One of the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Services (USDA-FAS) mission objectives is to provide current information on global crop supply and demand estimates. Crop growth and development is especially susceptible to the amount of water present in the root-zone portion of the soil profile. Therefore, accurate knowledge of the root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) is an essential for USDA-FAS global crop assessments. This paper focusses on the possibility of enhancing the USDA-FAS's RZSM estimates through the integration of passive-based soil moisture observations derived from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the USDA-FAS Palmer model. Lag-correlation analysis, which explores the agreement between changes in RZSM and crop status indicated that the satellite-based observations can enhance the model-only estimates.

crop growth↗

Socioeconomic Impact Evaluation for Near Real-time Flood Detection in the Lower Mekong River Basin

Flood events pose a severe threat to communities in the Lower Mekong River Basin. The combination of population growth, urbanization, and economic development exacerbate the impacts of these events. Flood damage assessments, critical for understanding the effects of flooding on the local population and informing decision-makers about future risks, are frequently used to quantify the economic losses due to storms. Remote sensing systems provide a valuable tool for monitoring flood conditions and assessing their severity more rapidly than traditional post-event evaluations. The frequency and severity of extreme flood events are projected to increase, further highlighting the need for improved flood monitoring and impact analysis. In this study we integrate a socioeconomic damage assessment model with a near real-time flood remote sensing and decision support tool (NASA's Project Mekong). Direct damages to populations, infrastructure, and land cover are assessed using the 2011 Southeast Asian flood as a case study. Improved land use/land cover and flood depth assessments result in rapid loss estimates throughout the Mekong River Basin. Results suggest that rapid initial estimates of flood impacts can provide valuable information to governments, international agencies, and disaster responders in the wake of extreme flood events.

Mekong Basin↗

Intercomparison of Soil Moisture, Evaporative Stress, and Vegetation Indices for Estimating Corn and Soybean Yields Over the U.S.

This paper presents an intercomparative study of 12 operationally produced large-scale datasets describing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and or vegetation characteristics within agricultural regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). These datasets have been developed using a variety of techniques, including, hydrologic modeling, satellite-based retrievals, data assimilation, and survey in-field data collection. The objectives are to assess the relative utility of each dataset for monitoring crop yield variability, to quantitatively assess their capacity for predicting end-of-season corn and soybean yields, and to examine the evolution of the yield-index correlations during the growing season. This analysis is unique both with regards to the number and variety of examined yield predictor datasets and the detailed assessment of the water availability timing on the end-of-season crop production during the growing season. Correlation results indicate that over CONUS, at state-level soil moisture and ET indices can provide better information for forecasting corn and soybean yields than vegetation-based indices such as normalized difference vegetation index. The strength of correlation with corn and soybean yields strongly depends on the interannual variability in yield measured at a given location. In this case study, some of the remotely derived datasets examined provide skill comparable to that of in situ field survey-based data further demonstrating the utility of these remote sensing-based approaches for estimating crop yield.

evapotranspiration↗

Flood Mapping in the Lower Mekong River Basin Using Daily MODIS Observations

In flat homogenous terrain such as in Cambodia and Vietnam, the monsoon season brings significant and consistent flooding between May and November. To monitor flooding in the Lower Mekong region, the near real-time NASA Flood Extent Product (NASA-FEP) was developed using seasonal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) differences from the 250 m resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor compared to daily observations. The use of a percentage change interval classification relating to various stages of flooding reduces might be confusing to viewers or potential users, and therefore reducing the product usage. To increase the product usability through simplification, the classification intervals were compared with other commonly used change detection schemes to identify the change classification scheme that best delineates flooded areas. The percentage change method used in the NASA-FEP proved to be helpful in delineating flood boundaries compared to other change detection methods. The results of the accuracy assessments indicate that the −75% NDVI change interval can be reclassified to a descriptive 'flood' classification. A binary system was used to simplify the interpretation of the NASA-FEP by removing extraneous information from lower interval change classes.

Cambodia↗

Benefit of Modeling the Observation Error in a Data Assimilation Framework Using Vegetation Information Obtained From Passive Based Microwave Data

A primary operational goal of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is to improve foreign market access for U.S. agricultural products. A large fraction of this crop condition assessment is based on satellite imagery and ground data analysis. The baseline soil moisture estimates that are currently used for this analysis are based on output from the modified Palmer two-layer soil moisture model, updated to assimilate near-real time observations derived from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The current data assimilation system is based on a 1-D Ensemble Kalman Filter approach, where the observation error is modeled as a function of vegetation density. This allows for offsetting errors in the soil moisture retrievals. The observation error is currently adjusted using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) climatology. In this paper we explore the possibility of utilizing microwave-based vegetation optical depth instead.

Vegetation↗

Evaluation ofthe Middle East and North Africa Land Data Assimilation System

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is dominated by dry, warm deserts, areas of dense population, and inefficient use of fresh water resources. Due to the scarcity, high intensity, and short duration of rainfall in the MENA, the region is prone to hydro climatic extremes that are realized by devastating floods and times of drought. However, given its widespread water stress and the considerable demand for water, the MENA remains relatively poorly monitored. This is due in part to the shortage of meteorological observations and the lack of data sharing between nations. As a result, the accurate monitoring of the dynamics of the water cycle in the MENA is difficult. The Land Data Assimilation System for the MENA region (MENA LDAS) has been developed to provide regional, gridded fields of hydrological states and fluxes relevant for water resources assessments. As an extension of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the MENA LDAS was designed to aid in the identification and evaluation of regional hydrological anomalies by synergistically combining the physically-based Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) with observations from several independent data products including soil-water storage variations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and irrigation intensity derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In this fashion, we estimate the mean and seasonal cycle of the water budget components across the MENA.

Bolten, John D.↗

Understanding Changes in Water Availability in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo del Norte Basin Under the Influence of Large-Scale Circulation Indices Using the Noah Land Surface Model

Water availability plays an important role in the socio-economic development of a region. It is however, subject to the influence of large-scale circulation indices, resulting in periodic excesses and deficits. An assessment of the degree of correlation between climate indices and water availability, and the quantification of changes with respect to major climate events is important for long-term water resources planning and management, especially in transboundary basins as it can help in conflict avoidance. In this study we first establish the correlation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with gauged precipitation in the Rio Grande basin, and quantify the changes in water availability using runoff generated from the Noah land surface model. Both spatial and temporal variations are noted, with winter and spring being most influenced by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Negative correlation is observed at the headwaters and positive correlation across the rest of the basin. The influence of individual ENSO events, classified using four different criteria, is also examined. El Ninos (La Ninas) generally cause an increase (decrease) in runoff, but the pattern is not consistent; percentage change in water availability varies across events. Further, positive PDO enhances the effect of El Nino and dampens that of La Nina, but during neutral/transitioning PDO, La Nina dominates meteorological conditions. Long El Ninos have more influence on water availability than short duration high intensity events. We also note that the percentage increase during El Ninos significantly offsets the drought-causing effect of La Ninas.

Khedun, C. Prakash↗

Evaluating the Utility of Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Retrievals for Operational Agricultural Drought Monitoring

Soil moisture is a fundamental data source used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) to monitor crop growth stage and condition and subsequently, globally forecast agricultural yields. Currently, the USDA IPAD estimates surface and root-zone soil moisture using a two-layer modified Palmer soil moisture model forced by global precipitation and temperature measurements. However, this approach suffers from well-known errors arising from uncertainty in model forcing data and highly simplified model physics. Here we attempt to correct for these errors by designing and applying an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system to integrate surface soil moisture retrievals from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) into the USDA modified Palmer soil moisture model. An assessment of soil moisture analysis products produced from this assimilation has been completed for a five-year (2002 to 2007) period over the North American continent between 23degN - 50degN and 128degW - 65degW. In particular, a data denial experimental approach is utilized to isolate the added utility of integrating remotely-sensed soil moisture by comparing EnKF soil moisture results obtained using (relatively) low-quality precipitation products obtained from real-time satellite imagery to baseline Palmer model runs forced with higher quality rainfall. An analysis of root-zone anomalies for each model simulation suggests that the assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals can add significant value to USDA root-zone predictions derived from real-time satellite precipitation products.

Bolten, John D.↗

An Evaluation of Soil Moisture Retrievals Using Aircraft and Satellite Passive Microwave Observations during SMEX02

The Soil Moisture Experiments conducted in Iowa in the summer of 2002 (SMEX02) had many remote sensing instruments that were used to study the spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture. The sensors used in this paper (a subset of the suite of sensors) are the AQUA satellite-based AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer- Earth Observing System) and the aircraft-based PSR (Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer). The SMEX02 design focused on the collection of near simultaneous brightness temperature observations from each of these instruments and in situ soil moisture measurements at field- and domain- scale. This methodology provided a basis for a quantitative analysis of the soil moisture remote sensing potential of each instrument using in situ comparisons and retrieved soil moisture estimates through the application of a radiative transfer model. To this end, the two sensors are compared with respect to their estimation of soil moisture.

Bolten, John D.↗