Engineering topics

Boos, William R.

Publications and source records attributed to Boos, William R..

15 records

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of tropical orographic precipitation to wind speed with implications for future projections

Abstract. Some of the rainiest regions on Earth lie upstream of tropical mountains, where the interaction of prevailing winds with orography produces frequent precipitating convection. Yet the response of tropical orographic precipitation to the large-scale wind and temperature variations induced by anthropogenic climate change remains largely unconstrained. Here, we quantify the sensitivity of tropical orographic precipitation to background cross-slope wind using theory, idealized simulations, and observations. We build on a recently developed theoretical framework that characterizes the orographic enhancement of seasonal mean precipitation, relative to upstream regions, as a response of convection to cooling and moistening of the lower free troposphere by stationary orographic gravity waves. Using this framework and convection-permitting simulations, we show that higher cross-slope wind speeds deepen the penetration of the cool and moist gravity wave perturbation upstream of orography, resulting in a mean rainfall increase of 20 % (m s−1)−1 to 30 % (m s−1)−1 increase in cross-slope wind speed. Additionally, we show that orographic precipitation in five tropical regions exhibits a similar dependence on changes in cross-slope wind at both seasonal and daily timescales. Given next-century changes in large-scale winds around tropical orography projected by global climate models, this strong scaling rate implies wind-induced changes in some of Earth's rainiest regions that are comparable with any produced directly by increases in global mean temperature and humidity.

Nicolas, Quentin (ORCID:000000024116973X)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet-Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance From the Current State of ENSO

Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TW max ). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TW max and significant regional TW max variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ~2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TW max of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TW max in specific areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Orographic Rainfall Using Convective Plume Buoyancy

Abstract Mechanical forcing by orography affects precipitating convection across many tropical regions, but controls on the intensity and horizontal extent of the orographic precipitation peak and rain shadow remain poorly understood. A recent theory explains this control of precipitation as arising from modulation of lower-tropospheric temperature and moisture by orographic mechanical forcing, setting the distribution of convective rainfall by controlling parcel buoyancy. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we evaluate this theory by investigating spatiotemporal precipitation variations in six mountainous tropical regions spanning South and Southeast Asia, and the Maritime Continent. We show that a strong relationship holds in these regions between daily precipitation and a measure of convective plume buoyancy. This measure depends on boundary layer thermodynamic properties and lower-free-tropospheric moisture and temperature. Consistent with the theory, temporal variations in lower-free-tropospheric temperature are primarily modulated by orographic mechanical lifting through changes in cross-slope wind speed. However, winds directed along background horizontal moisture gradients also influence lower-tropospheric moisture variations in some regions. The buoyancy measure is also shown to explain many aspects of the spatial patterns of precipitation. Finally, we present a linear model with two horizontal dimensions that combines mountain wave dynamics with a linearized closure exploiting the relationship between precipitation and plume buoyancy. In some regions, this model skillfully captures the spatial structure and intensity of rainfall; it underestimates rainfall in regions where time-mean ascent in large-scale convergence zones shapes lower-tropospheric humidity. Overall, these results provide new understanding of fundamental processes controlling subseasonal and spatial variations in tropical orographic precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble

Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K −1 , which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observed increase in the peak rain rates of monsoon depressions

Most extreme precipitation in the densely populated region of central India is produced by atmospheric vortices called monsoon lows and monsoon depressions. Here we use satellite and gauge-based precipitation estimates with atmospheric reanalyses to assess 40-year trends in the rain rates of these storms, which have remained unknown. We show that rain rates increased in the rainiest quadrant of monsoon depressions, southwest of the vortex center; precipitation decreased in eastern quadrants, yielding no clear trend in precipitation averaged over the entire storm diameter. In an atmospheric reanalysis, ascent increased in the region of amplifying precipitation, but we could not detect trends in the intensity of rotational winds around the storm center. These storm changes occurred in a background environment where humidity increased rapidly over land while warming was more muted. Monsoon lows, which we show produce less precipitation than depressions, exhibit weaker trends that are less statistically robust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Influence of monsoon low pressure systems on South Asian disasters and implications for disaster prediction

Transient atmospheric vortices called monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) generate a large fraction of total rainfall over South Asia and often produce extreme precipitation. Here, we assess the influence of these storms on the occurrence of disasters, using information from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) that we geocoded and then associated with LPS tracks. We show that more than half of hydro-meteorological disasters over South Asia during summer are associated with these LPS events. Weaker LPS (which are called monsoon lows) occur more frequently than stronger LPS (called monsoon depressions), but the stronger LPS produce a larger number of disasters. Furthermore, although many prior studies have shown that the peak rainfall in LPS falls southwest of the vortex centre, the disasters are concentrated on the northern edge of the LPS tracks, along the Himalayas and upper basins of the Ganga and Brahmaputra rivers. Observations show a sharp peak in rainfall on the day of disasters, confirming the physical link between LPS and these hydro-meteorological disasters. A similar peak in rainfall is found in weather forecasts made up to five days before the disaster, suggesting that short-term precipitation forecasts can be useful in disaster preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An upper bound for extreme temperatures over midlatitude land

Heatwaves damage societies worldwide and are intensifying with global warming. Several mechanistic drivers of heatwaves, such as atmospheric blocking and soil moisture-atmosphere feedback, are well-known for their ability to raise surface air temperature. However, what limits the maximum surface air temperature in heatwaves remains unclear; this became evident during recent Northern Hemisphere heatwaves which achieved temperatures far beyond the upper tail of the observed statistical distribution. Here, we present evidence for the hypothesis that convective instability limits annual maximum surface air temperatures (TXx) over midlatitude land. We provide a theory for the corresponding upper bound of midlatitude temperatures, which accurately describes the observed relationship between temperatures at the surface and in the midtroposphere. We show that known heatwave drivers shift the position of the atmospheric state in the phase space described by the theory, changing its proximity to the upper bound. This theory suggests that the upper bound for midlatitude TXx should increase 1.9 times as fast as 500-hPa temperatures at the time and location of TXx occurrences. Using empirical 500-hPa warming, we project that the upper bound of TXx over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land (40°N to 65°N) will increase about twice as fast as global mean surface air temperature, and TXx will increase faster than this bound over regions that dry on the hottest days.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long-term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Improved understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks and their impacts. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds and whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements have a higher risk of crossing tipping points under middle-of-the-road emissions pathways and will possibly affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the 21st century. However, literature assessing different emissions scenarios indicates a strong potential to reduce impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. The studies synthesized in our review suggest most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Monsoon Depression Amplification by Horizontal Shear and Humidity Gradients: A Shallow Water Perspective

Transient, synoptic-scale vortices produce a large fraction of total rainfall in most monsoon regions and are often associated with extreme precipitation. However, the mechanism of their amplification remains a topic of active research. For monsoon depressions, which are the most prominent synoptic-scale vortex in the Asian–Australian monsoon, recent work has suggested that meridional gradients in zonal wind in the vortex environment may produce growth through barotropic instability, while meridional gradients in environmental humidity have also been proposed to cause amplification through coupling with precipitating convection. Here, a two-dimensional shallow water model on a sphere with parameterized precipitation is used to examine the relative role played by these two environmental gradients. By systematically varying the meridional moisture gradient and meridional wind shear for both weak, quasi-linear waves and finite-amplitude isolated vortices, we show that rotational winds in the initial vortex are amplified most strongly by meridional shear of the environmental zonal wind, while vortex precipitation rates are most sensitive to environmental moisture gradients. The growth rate in the presence of both gradients is less than the sum of growth rates in the presence of isolated gradients, as the phase relation between moisture and vorticity anomalies becomes distorted with increasing shear. In conclusion, these results suggest that background meridional gradients in both zonal wind and environmental humidity can contribute to the amplification of vortices to monsoon depression strength, but with some degree of decoupling of the dry rotational flow and the moist convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Monsoon Extremes: Impacts, Metrics, and Synoptic-Scale Drivers

This project was led by UC Berkeley with a subcontract to UC Davis and collaborative funding at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). It produced new understanding of transient atmospheric disturbances in monsoon regions, the precipitation extremes they produce, and the sensitivity of precipitation and monsoon winds to fine-scale orography (i.e., the narrow mountain ranges that are difficult to represent in conventional Earth system models). Fundamental research undertaken as part of this project led to discovery of new mechanisms that control the generation of extreme weather events and that govern the spatial patterns of intense precipitation in monsoon climates—including the North American monsoon. These research accomplishments are summarized below and documented in a series of 23 publications, 20 of which were led by project personnel (the others were collaborative work led by staff of other projects). One of the publications produced by this project was in Nature, where it was selected for the main cover image, and another was in PNAS. The project also produced two datasets and a tracking algorithm, both of which are publicly available and listed below. The project trained three Ph.D. students and four postdoctoral scientists, the vast majority of whom have progressed to more advanced positions in their scientific careers. Although the university funding for this project ended in 2022, the LBNL component of the project proceeded for almost one year longer; this report is being provided after completion of all components of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Downwind control of oceanic air by land: the land wake and its sensitivity to CO 2

Oceans are well-known to be directly altered by global climate forcings such as greenhouse gas changes, but how oceans are indirectly influenced by land and its response to such forcings remains less explored. Here, we assess the present-day and projected future state of a little-explored feature of the climate system—a 'land wake' in relative humidity downwind of the east coast of North America, consisting of low-humidity continental air extending roughly 1000 km over the Atlantic ocean. The wake exists throughout the year, but is supported by high continental temperatures in summer and low continental moisture in winter. The wake is well represented in an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs), qualitatively matching reanalysis data. Under increasing atmospheric CO 2 , the land wake intensifies in GCM simulations through two pathways: the radiative effects of CO 2 on surface temperatures, and the biogeochemical effect of CO 2 on terrestrial vegetation. Vegetation responses to increased CO 2 alter the summer wake from Florida to Newfoundland, and both the radiative and biogeochemical effects of CO 2 drive reductions in coastal cloud cover. These changes illustrate the potential of rapidly changing terrestrial climate to influence coastal regions and the ocean environment downwind of continents through both light conditions and the energy balance of the surface ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Theory for the Response of Tropical Moist Convection to Mechanical Orographic Forcing

Abstract Spatial patterns of tropical rainfall are strongly influenced by mountains. Although theories for precipitation induced by convectively stable upslope ascent exist for the midlatitudes, these do not represent the interaction of moist convection with orographic forcing. Here, we present a theory for convective precipitation produced by the mechanical interaction of a tropical ridge with a basic-state horizontal wind. Deviations from this basic state are represented as the sum of a “dry” perturbation, due to the stationary orographic gravity wave, and a “moist” perturbation that carries the convective response. The moist component dynamics are subject to the weak temperature gradient approximation; they are forced by the dry mode’s influence on lower-tropospheric moisture and temperature. Analytical solutions provide estimates of the precipitation distribution, including peak precipitation, upstream extent, and rain shadow extent. The theory can be used with several degrees of complexity depending on the technique used to compute the dry mode, which can be drawn from linear mountain wave theory or full numerical simulations. To evaluate the theory, we use a set of convection-permitting simulations with a flow-perpendicular ridge in a long channel. The theory makes a good prediction for the cross-slope precipitation profile, indicating that the organization of convective rain by orography can be quantitatively understood by considering the effect of stationary orographic gravity waves on a lower-tropospheric convective quasi-equilibrium state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Unexpected Oceanic Peak in Energy Input to the Atmosphere and Its Consequences for Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Monsoons have historically been understood to be caused by the low thermal inertia of land, allowing more energy from summer insolation to be transferred to the overlying atmosphere than over adjacent ocean. Here, we show that during boreal summer, the global maximum net energy input (NEI) to the atmosphere unexpectedly lies over the Indian Ocean, not over land. Observed radiative fluxes suggest that cloud‐radiative effects (CRE) almost double the NEI over ocean, shifting the NEI peak from land to ocean. Global climate model experiments with both land and interactive sea surface temperatures confirm that CRE create the oceanic NEI maximum. Interactions between CRE, NEI, circulation, and land‐sea contrast in surface heat capacity shift precipitation from Southeast to South Asia. CRE thus alter the global partitioning of precipitation between land and ocean and the spatial structure of Earth's strongest monsoon, in ways that can be understood through the NEI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploratory Precipitation Metrics: Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Process-Oriented, and Phenomena-Based

Abstract Precipitation sustains life and supports human activities, making its prediction one of the most societally relevant challenges in weather and climate modeling. Limitations in modeling precipitation underscore the need for diagnostics and metrics to evaluate precipitation in simulations and predictions. While routine use of basic metrics is important for documenting model skill, more sophisticated diagnostics and metrics aimed at connecting model biases to their sources and revealing precipitation characteristics relevant to how model precipitation is used are critical for improving models and their uses. This paper illustrates examples of exploratory diagnostics and metrics including 1) spatiotemporal characteristics metrics such as diurnal variability, probability of extremes, duration of dry spells, spectral characteristics, and spatiotemporal coherence of precipitation; 2) process-oriented metrics based on the rainfall–moisture coupling and temperature–water vapor environments of precipitation; and 3) phenomena-based metrics focusing on precipitation associated with weather phenomena including low pressure systems, mesoscale convective systems, frontal systems, and atmospheric rivers. Together, these diagnostics and metrics delineate the multifaceted and multiscale nature of precipitation, its relations with the environments, and its generation mechanisms. The metrics are applied to historical simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models exhibit diverse skill as measured by the suite of metrics, with very few models consistently ranked as top or bottom performers compared to other models in multiple metrics. Analysis of model skill across metrics and models suggests possible relationships among subsets of metrics, motivating the need for more systematic analysis to understand model biases for informing model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗