Ground-to-space observations of the 20 May 2022 bolide over Australia
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Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce↗
Engineering topics
Boslough, Mark
Publications and source records attributed to Boslough, Mark.
Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai
The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai
The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Los Alamos Scientists Support Planetary Defense Efforts Worldwide
Every two years the International Academy of Astronautics brings scientists, engineers, spacecraft developers, disaster specialists, and government officials together to share research and ideas, and to consider how to find, and ultimately deflect or destroy, an asteroid that might be threatening Earth. Attending these Planetary Defense Conferences are scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory who contribute considerable expertise in the areas of computer modeling and asteroid mitigation technologies. Los Alamos scientists work with NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office to assist in the location and tracking near-Earth objects, characterization of those objects to determine their orbit trajectory, size, shape, mass, composition, rotational dynamics and other parameters, and planning and implementation of measures to deflect or disrupt an object on an impact course, along with measures that can be taken on Earth to protect lives and property include evacuation of the impact area and movement of critical infrastructure. At the Planetary Defense Conferences scientists share research findings, collaborate on planetary defense strategies, and work on hypothetical scenarios that consider the many timelines and options that might occur during an asteroid threat. To be sure, that threat is rare, but these emergency exercises provide officials with valuable information that may one day protect us all during the real thing.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
The Sariçiçek Howardite Fall in Turkey: Source Crater of HED Meteorites on Vesta and Impact Risk of Vestoids
The Sariçiçek howardite meteorite shower consisting of 343 documented stones occurred on September 2, 2015 in Turkey and is the first documented howardite fall. Cosmogenic isotopes show that Sariçiçek experienced a complex cosmic‐ray exposure history, exposed during ~12–14 Ma in a regolith near the surface of a parent asteroid, and that an ~1 m sized meteoroid was launched by an impact 22 ± 2 Ma ago to Earth (as did one‐third of all HED meteorites). SIMS dating of zircon and baddeleyite yielded 4550.4 ± 2.5 Ma and 4553 ± 8.8 Ma crystallization ages for the basaltic magma clasts. The apatite U‐Pb age of 4525 ± 17 Ma, K‐Ar age of ~3.9 Ga, and the U,Th‐He ages of 1.8 ± 0.7 and 2.6 ± 0.3 Ga are interpreted to represent thermal metamorphic and impact‐related resetting ages, respectively. Petrographic; geochemical; and O‐, Cr‐, and Ti‐isotopic studies confirm that Sariçiçek belongs to the normal clan of HED meteorites. Petrographic observations and analysis of organic material indicate a small portion of carbonaceous chondrite material in the Sariçiçek regolith and organic contamination of the meteorite after a few days on soil. Video observations of the fall show an atmospheric entry at 17.3 ± 0.8 km/s from NW; fragmentations at 37, 33, 31, and 27 km altitude; and provide a pre‐atmospheric orbit that is the first dynamical link between the normal HED meteorite clan and the inner Main Belt. Spectral data indicate the similarity of Sariçiçek with the Vesta asteroid family (V‐class) spectra, a group of asteroids stretching to delivery resonances, which includes (4) Vesta. Dynamical modeling of meteoroid delivery to Earth shows that the complete disruption of a ~1 km sized Vesta family asteroid or a ~10 km sized impact crater on Vesta is required to provide sufficient meteoroids ≤4 m in size to account for the influx of meteorites from this HED clan. The 16.7 km diameter Antionia impact crater on Vesta was formed on terrain of the same age as given by the 4He retention age of Sariçiçek. Lunar scaling for crater production to crater counts of its ejecta blanketshow it was formed ~22 Ma ago.
Unsalan, Ozan↗
Photoacoustic sounds from meteors
Concurrent sound associated with very bright meteors manifests as popping, hissing, and faint rustling sounds occurring simultaneously with the arrival of light from meteors. Numerous instances have been documented with –11 to –13 brightness. These sounds cannot be attributed to direct acoustic propagation from the upper atmosphere for which travel time would be several minutes. Concurrent sounds must be associated with some form of electromagnetic energy generated by the meteor, propagated to the vicinity of the observer, and transduced into acoustic waves. Previously, energy propagated from meteors was assumed to be RF emissions. This has not been well validated experimentally. Herein we describe experimental results and numerical models in support of photoacoustic coupling as the mechanism. Recent photometric measurements of fireballs reveal strong millisecond flares and significant brightness oscillations at frequencies ≥40 Hz. Strongly modulated light at these frequencies with sufficient intensity can create concurrent sounds through radiative heating of common dielectric materials like hair, clothing, and leaves. This heating produces small pressure oscillations in the air contacting the absorbers. Calculations show that –12 brightness meteors can generate audible sound at ~25 dB SPL. As a result, the photoacoustic hypothesis provides an alternative explanation for this longstanding mystery about generation of concurrent sounds by fireballs.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Incomplete Bayesian model rejects contradictory radiocarbon data for being contradictory
Not Available
Boslough, Mark↗
FEMA Asteroid Impact Tabletop Exercise Simulations
We describe the computational simulations and damage assessments that we provided in support of a tabletop exercise (TTX) at the request of NASA's Near-Earth Objects Program Office. The overall purpose of the exercise was to assess leadership reactions, information requirements, and emergency management responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact with Earth. The scripted exercise consisted of discovery, tracking, and characterization of a hypothetical asteroid; inclusive of mission planning, mitigation, response, impact to population, infrastructure and GDP, and explicit quantification of uncertainty. Participants at the meeting included representatives of NASA, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the White House. The exercise took place at FEMA headquarters. Sandia's role was to assist the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in developing the impact scenario, to predict the physical effects of the impact, and to forecast the infrastructure and economic losses. We ran simulations using Sandia's CTH hydrocode to estimate physical effects on the ground, and to produce contour maps indicating damage assessments that could be used as input for the infrastructure and economic models. We used the FASTMap tool to provide estimates of infrastructure damage over the affected area, and the REAcct tool to estimate the potential economic severity expressed as changes to GDP (by nation, region, or sector) due to damage and short-term business interruptions.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗