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Botterud, Audun

Publications and source records attributed to Botterud, Audun.

33 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Resource Adequacy in Electricity Markets With Renewable Energy

This paper presents a market-based resource adequacy assessment framework to analyze the system generation portfolio that results in a competitive market environment. In particular, we apply the modeling framework to investigate the impact of high penetration levels of variable renewable energy resources and different market designs on achieving resource adequacy. The model captures the strategic capacity investment and retirement decision-making of profit-maximizing generation companies. In contrast to many previous studies, this paper considers markets for capacity, energy, and reserve products in detail; thus, the modeling framework allows improved analysis of generation expansion and revenue sufficiency in a competitive market environment. The modeling framework is based on Stackelberg leader-follower games and is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem, which is then transformed into a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints. Furthermore, we employ a Lagrangian decomposition algorithm to enhance computational performance. In a case study of the electric reliability council of texas (ERCOT) system, we compare the results from the proposed model with those obtained from a traditional centralized least-cost planning model. Finally, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling framework and highlight the importance of considering strategic behavior in a competitive market framework when assessing resource adequacy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

The long-term impacts of carbon and variable renewable energy policies on electricity markets

We present a computationally-efficient optimization model that finds the least-cost generation unit expansion, commitment, and dispatch plan to serve hourly electricity demand and ancillary service requirements. We apply the model to a case study based on data from the electricity market in Texas (ERCOT) to analyze the market and investment impacts of several incentive mechanisms that support variable renewable energy (VRE) investments and carbon emission reductions. In contrast to many previous studies, the model determines least-cost VRE investments under different cost and incentive assumptions rather than analyzing scenarios where VRE expansion is pre-determined. We find that electricity prices can vary significantly under different incentive mechanisms, even when comparable generation portfolios result. Therefore, the preferred incentive mechanism depends on stakeholder objectives as well as the prevailing electricity market framework. Our results indicate that a carbon tax is more system cost-efficient for reducing emissions, while production and investment tax credits are more system cost-efficient for increasing VRE investments. Similarly, incentive mechanisms that reduce electricity prices may increase the need for separate revenue sufficiency mechanisms (e.g. a capacity market) more than a policy that increases electricity prices. Moreover, the impacts on consumer payments are not always aligned with changes in system costs. Overall, the analysis illustrates the importance of considering electricity market impacts in assessing the economic efficiency of VRE and carbon incentive mechanisms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Overview of Wholesale Electricity Markets

This chapter provides a comprehensive review of four key electricity markets: energy markets (day-ahead and real-time markets); ancillary service markets; financial transmission rights markets; capacity markets. It also discusses how the outcomes of each of these markets may be impacted by the introduction of high penetrations of variable generation. Furthermore, the chapter examines considerations needed to ensure that wholesale market designs are inclusive of emerging technologies, such as demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Incentivizing Flexibility in System Operations

Defining flexibility has been a challenge that a number of industry members and researchers have attempted to address in recent years. With increased variability and uncertainty of variable generation (VG), the resources on the system will have to be more flexible to adjust output, so that power output ranges, power ramp rates, and energy duration sustainability are sufficient to meet the needs of balancing supply with demand at various operational timescales. This chapter discusses whether existing market designs provide adequate incentives for resources to offer their flexibility into the market to meet the increased levels of variability and uncertainty introduced by VG in the short-term operational time frame. It presents a definition of flexibility and discusses how increased levels of VG require increased needs for flexibility on power systems. Following this introductory material, the chapter examines how existing market designs ensure that resources have the right incentives to provide increased flexibility, and then discusses a number of emerging market design elements that impact flexibility incentives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long-Term Resource Adequacy, Long-Term Flexibility Requirements, and Revenue Sufficiency

Variable generation (VG) can reduce market prices over time and also the energy that other suppliers can sell in the market. The suppliers that are needed to provide capacity and flexibility to meet the long-term reliability requirements may, therefore, earn less revenue. This chapter discusses the topics of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency - that is, determining and acquiring the quantity of capacity that will be needed at some future date and ensuring that those suppliers that offer the capacity receive sufficient revenue to recover their costs. The focus is on the investment time horizon and the installation of sufficient generation capability. First, the chapter discusses resource adequacy, including newer methods of determining adequacy metrics. The chapter then focuses on revenue sufficiency and how suppliers have sufficient opportunity to recover their total costs. The chapter closes with a description of the mechanisms traditionally adopted by electricity markets to mitigate the issues of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency and discusses the most recent market design changes to address these issues.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Capacity market design and renewable energy: Performance incentives, qualifying capacity, and demand curves

A review of capacity markets in the United States in the context of increasing levels of variable renewable energy finds substantial differences with respect to incentives for operational performance, methods to calculate qualifying capacity for variable renewable energy and energy storage, and demand curves for capacity. The review also reveals large differences in historical capacity market clearing prices. The authors conclude that electricity market design must continue to evolve to achieve cost-effective policies for resource adequacy.

Byers, Conleigh↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is a complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Energy storage arbitrage under day-ahead and real-time price uncertainty

Electricity markets must match real-time supply and demand of electricity. With increasing penetration of renewable resources, it is important that this balancing is done effectively, considering the high uncertainty of wind and solar energy. Storing electrical energy can make the grid more reliable and efficient and energy storage is proposed as a complement to highly variable renewable energy sources. However, for investments in energy storage to increase, participating in the market must become economically viable for owners. This paper proposes a stochastic formulation of a storage owner’s arbitrage profit maximization problem under uncertainty in day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT) market prices. The proposed model helps storage owners in market bidding and operational decisions and in estimation of the economic viability of energy storage. Finally, case study results on realistic market price data show that the novel stochastic bidding approach does significantly better than the deterministic benchmark.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impact of battery degradation on energy arbitrage revenue of grid-level energy storage

This study investigates the representation of battery degradation in grid level energy storage applications. In particular, we focus on energy arbitrage, as this is a potential future large-scale application of energy storage and there is limited existing research combining the modelling of battery degradation and energy storage arbitrage. We implement two different representations of battery degradation within an energy arbitrage model, and show that degradation has a strong impact on battery energy storage system (BESS) profitability. In a case study using historical electricity market prices from the MISO electricity market in the United States, we find that the achievable net present value (at an interest rate of 10%) for a battery system with a C-rate of 1C dropped from 358 /kWh in the case considering no degradation to 194-314 /kWh depending on the battery degradation model and assumptions for end of life (EOL) criteria. This corresponds to a reduction in revenue due to degradation in the 12-46% range.Furthermore, we find that reducing the cycling of the bat-tery via introducing a penalty cost in the objective function of the energy arbitrage optimization model can improve the profitability over the life of the BESS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Fuzzy Energy and Reserve Co-optimization With High Penetration of Renewable Energy

In this study, we propose a fuzzy-based energy and reserve co-optimization model with consideration of high penetration of renewable energy. Under the assumption of a fixed uncertainty set of renewables, a two-stage robust model is proposed for clearing energy and reserves in the first stage and checking the feasibility and robustness of re-dispatches in the second stage. Fuzzy sets and their membership functions are introduced into the optimization model to represent the satisfaction degree of the variable uncertainty sets. The lower bound of the uncertainty set is expressed as fuzzy membership functions. The solutions are obtained by transforming the fuzzy mathematical programming formulation into traditional mixed integer linear programming problems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Systematic Evaluation of Stochastic Methods in Power System Scheduling and Dispatch with Renewable Energy

As more wind power and other renewable resources are being integrated into the electric power grid, the forecast uncertainty brings operational challenges for the power system operators. In this report, different operational strategies for uncertainty management are presented and evaluated. A comprehensive and consistent simulation framework is developed to analyze the performance of different reserve policies and scheduling techniques under uncertainty in wind power. Numerical simulations are conducted on a modified version of the IEEE 118-bus system with a 20% wind penetration level, comparing deterministic, interval, and stochastic unit commitment strategies. The results show that stochastic unit commitment provides a reliable schedule without large increases in operational costs. Moreover, decomposition techniques, such as load shift factor and Benders decomposition, can help in overcoming the computational obstacles to stochastic unit commitment and enable the use of a larger scenario set to represent forecast uncertainty. In contrast, deterministic and interval unit commitment tend to give higher system costs as more reserves are being scheduled to address forecast uncertainty. However, these approaches require a much lower computational effort Choosing a proper lower bound for the forecast uncertainty is important for balancing reliability and system operational cost in deterministic and interval unit commitment. Finally, we find that the introduction of zonal reserve requirements improves reliability, but at the expense of higher operational costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

An Improved Stochastic Unit Commitment Formulation to Accommodate Wind Uncertainty

The United States targets to supply 20% of its electricity generation using wind energy by 2030. The expansion of renewable resources, especially weather-based resources such as wind, creates more uncertainty and variability in the operation of the power grid. New methods and approaches in electricity market operations are needed to efficiently manage the continuing increase in variability and uncertainty caused by expanding intermittent wind. This paper proposes an improved stochastic programming approach for incorporating wind uncertainty into energy markets. The proposed formulation improves the two-stage stochastic unit commitment problem by introducing a dynamic decision making approach similar to a multi-stage formulation in the presence of wind power scenarios which are not well represented by a scenario tree. The numerical results present up to 1%-2% decrease in operational costs compared to the two-stage stochastic unit commitment formulation.

Electricity markets↗
DOE OSTI2016

Wholesale Electricity Market Design with Increasing Levels of Renewable Generation: Incentivizing Flexibility in System Operations

This paper discusses the importance and challenges of incentivizing flexibility during short-term operations of the bulk power system due to the increasing variability and uncertainty from growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). Operational flexibility can refer to many aspects of a resource's capability to support the power system, such as the speed, range, and duration of power output, as well as the ability to autonomously respond to frequency or voltage changes. Inefficient utilization of existing flexibility, or unwillingness of resources to provide flexibility, can compromise system reliability by not meeting the changing net load, and it can also lead to higher costs when an inefficient use of flexibility resources occurs. There are many existing characteristics of market design that incentivize flexibility in some manner. How they incentivize the provision of flexibility as well as the level of flexibility is still debated. We explore some of these existing market designs, as well as new market mechanisms, such as pay-for-performance regulating reserve and flexible ramping products, that aim to explicitly incentivize the provision of more flexibility to the system, particularly as a result of increasing VG penetration levels.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗