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Bradford Robertson

Publications and source records attributed to Bradford Robertson.

A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis Framework for the Design of Small Launch Vehicles

Between the years of 1995 and 2014 the number of small satellites (1-500 kg) went up from 20 to 180. [1] Out of the 180 launched in 2014 66% were Nano satellites (1-10 kg). [1] With this trend of smaller satellites, one would expect a rise in number of small launch vehicles (SLVs are defined by capability to carry 1-100 kg to orbit), but this has not happened: [3] only 8% of all small satellites are launched on SLVs and the others become secondary payloads on regular launch vehicles. [1] This results in small satellites being placed into either suboptimal orbits or waiting for launch schedules to align with bigger launches, resulting in long waiting times. Dedicated SLVs could improve the responsiveness of small satellite launches, but SLV design is complicated by the large architecture space needed to be explored in order to find efficient and affordable designs. The SLV architecture trade space contains many discrete options, e.g. solid vs. liquid fuels, air launch vs. ground launch, number of stages, etc. [2][3] Performing detailed analysis for all the options at once would be prohibitive. Thus, a sizing environment/framework that is capable of providing necessary information for conceptual-level trade studies and can rapidly explore the vast SLV architecture space is necessary. The framework, illustrated in Figure 1, consists of four disciplines central to the sizing and synthesis of launch vehicles: propulsion, aerodynamics, structures, and trajectory. For the aerodynamics and trajectory disciplines, Missile DATCOM and POST2 are used, respectively. The propulsion and structures disciplines are represented in the framework with tools developed at ASDL Georgia Tech. For propulsion, the Solid Motor Analysis Code (SMAC) is a physics-based conceptual design tool for solid rocket motors. SMAC is capable of geometric burn simulation, ballistic analysis, and prediction of thrust performance. [4] For structures, Launch Vehicle Structural Analysis (LVSA) tool is a physics-based tool that focuses on structural dynamic analysis with sizing capability. These tools are integrated into the framework illustrated in Figure 1 with the corresponding connections described in Table 1. The process flow is as follows: first, SMAC sizes insulation and calculates maximum operating pressures for each vehicle stage. The MEOP and insulation thickness values from SMAC are fed to LVSA which then utilizes this information to size the motor casing. This creates a feedback loop between LVSA and SMAC that converges on the radius available for fuel, casing, and insulation thickness. Once the stage sizing is converged on SMAC creates an engine deck that is passed to POST2. Next, the data from SMAC and LVSA goes into Missile DATCOM which generates an aerodynamics database for POST2. Finally, POST2 performs a targeting optimization while maximizing the payload mass to orbit. Within the framework, POST2 is automated in order to be robust to a wide variety of possible designs by performing a Monte Carlo simulation over the initialization vector of the POST2 optimization variables. To demonstrate the capability of this framework, a sample problem of exploring the design space of an SLV capable of placing satellites into a low Earth orbit (inclination=47 deg, 196.5 by 211.3 nm) is used. This sample problem is a ground-launched SLV consisting of four in-line SRM stages. The multidisciplinary design analysis (MDA) environment is utilized to explore a design space consisting of 22 continuous and 12 discrete variables, shown by Table 1 by blocks 1,2,3. Running a full factorial design of experiments (DOE) would have been prohibitively expensive even with this reduced design space, thus a space filling design with 3,502 and then additional expansion of 2,602 cases was used. The first DOE consisted of 3,502 cases, and all of the variables were varied. These input variables are listed in blocks 1, 2, and 3 in Table 1. Most of the variables are propulsion related with stage lengths determining the delta-V split of the SLV. The expansion consisted of 2,602 cases, and the continuous variables were set to be equal to the most promising designs from the sizing of first DOE. For each set of continuous variables, the discrete variables (grain type, star points, and propellant) were to varied. The results of the DOE can be seen in Figure 2; each of the points in this plot represents a closed launch vehicle that reaches the targeted orbit. For each of the cases, there is information on flown trajectory, structural, and propulsion properties of the SLV. For example, Figure 3 shows changes in altitude and velocity with time for a particular case. The right side of Figure 3 clearly shows the coasting (slow decrease) and burning phases (sharp increase) of the SLV mission. LV mass is positively correlated with the optimized payload mass to orbit because heavier LVs carry more fuel and thus have more stored chemical energy. Furthermore, for any given payload mass to orbit, the most efficient design would result in the smallest LV. The results as visualized in Figure 2 shows this tradeoff, and the Pareto frontier of the efficient designs can be seen along the dotted line. Figure 2 can be divided into regions with the lowest mass vehicles corresponding to the minimum bound on radius, and the highest mass vehicles corresponding to the maximum bound on radius. Within a mass region, the discrete variables, such as propellant type and propellant grain arrangement, have the most effect on payload mass. This paper presents an MDA framework that can perform an automated physics-based sizing of SLV designs and a corresponding methodology to utilize the MDA to explore the design space of SLVs. The proposed methodology was applied to a perform a design space exploration for a four stage SLV. The outputs show the expected pareto frontier forming and provide detailed information about the SLV performance and staging. Using the produced data, it will be possible to select a set of pareto optimal designs that can then be further explored in subsequent design cycles. This demonstration shows that automated design space exploration should be used in the early phase design of future SLV concepts.

Nikita S Birbasov↗

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗

Development of a Lunar Lander Modeling and Simulation Capability

The development and validation of a capability to perform quantitative, physics-based analysis of alternatives of conceptual unmanned, reusable lunar cargo lander architectures is discussed. The lander is conceptualized as a suite of disciplines that need to be sized, synthesized, and optimized for a mission. As such, models of these disciplines were developed and integrated in a recently-developed multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization framework for space systems. The development of the disciplines, as well as how they are integrated into the framework, is discussed. Additionally, validation studies were performed against the Descent Module of the Altair lunar lander. Finally, an example problem for an uncrewed, reusable lander is presented.

Eugina Mendez Ramos↗

A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis Framework for the Design of Small Launch Vehicles

The decisions made in the conceptual design phase have large impacts on the resulting vehicle capability and cost. With the large and varied design space of Small Launch Vehicles(SLVs), it is even more important to have the data necessary to make informed design choices during the conceptual design phase. To enable extensive exploration of the SLV design space, a multi-disciplinary design framework was created. The design framework consists of trajectory, aerodynamics, propulsion, and structures disciplines. The framework then integrates and automates these tools, thus allowing for rapid design space exploration at the conceptual design phase. The outputs of the framework provide preliminary information on SLV size and structural configurations as well as propulsion and aerodynamic characteristics. Finally, the framework provides information necessary for the designer to make informed decisions on what variables lead to the desired performance characteristics and what segment of the design space would benefit from more detailed exploration.

Nikita Birbasov↗

The Effectiveness of Power Distribution Systems for Deployment on the Lunar Surface

Lunar habitation missions are currently being planned to have astronauts return to the moon by the mid 2020’s with a sustained lunar presence by the end of the decade. The various landed modules needed to support the missions are expected to be distributed around Shackleton Crater at distances ranging from 1 to 15 km and with power needs ranging from 10 kW to 50kW. Current plans call for a solar array to be installed on the rim of the crater that receives near-constant sunlight year around with a power distribution system that transfers power from the source to consumers. This paper details several power distribution systems: DC transmission lines, radio frequency power beaming, and optical power beaming. Sizing algorithms for each of these distributions systems along with their necessary subsystems were developed from literature and subject matter expertise input. Several experiments were then conducted to determine the performance of the systems along with their sensitivities to changes in assumptions for various sub-components. The defined Figures of Merit enable mission designers to select the best power distribution system for each possible power consumer mission scenario. The experimental results were analyzed and compiled into a set of figures that highlight the conditions for which a certain system outperforms the other.

Bradford Robertson↗

The Effectiveness of Power Distribution Systems for Deployment on the Lunar Surface

Lunar habitation missions are currently being planned to have astronauts return to the moon by the mid 2020’s with a sustained lunar presence by the end of the decade. The various landed modules needed to support the missions are expected to be distributed around Shackleton Crater at distances ranging from 1 to 15 km and with power needs ranging from 10 kW to 50kW. Current plans call for a solar array to be installed on the rim of the crater that receives near-constant sunlight year around with a power distribution system that transfers power from the source to consumers. This paper details several power distribution systems: DC transmission lines, radio frequency power beaming, and optical power beaming. Sizing algorithms for each of these distributions systems along with their necessary subsystems were developed from literature and subject matter expertise input. Several experiments were then conducted to determine the performance of the systems along with their sensitivities to changes in assumptions for various sub-components. The defined Figures of Merit enable mission designers to select the best power distribution system for each possible power consumer mission scenario. The experimental results were analyzed and compiled into a set of figures that highlight the conditions for which a certain system outperforms the other.

Bradford Robertson↗

The Light Bender Concept for Power Distribution on a Lunar Base

Power generation and distribution is a challenge for a future lunar base. A promising concept for lunar power distribution is the light bender—a system that utilizes autonomously deployed mirrors to reflect sunlight to shaded regions on the lunar surface. The light bender system consists of two components: tandem reflector mirrors (TRM) which reflect sunlight to a permanently shaded region and the Cassegrain Fresnel distribution optics (CFDO) which collects the reflected light from the TRM and redirects light to local consumer nodes. This paper describes the light bender system concepts and the associated system analysis and technology development performed as part of a 2021 NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) phase I award.

Bradford Robertson↗

The Light Bender Concept for Power Distribution on a Lunar Base

Power generation and distribution is a challenge for a future lunar base. A promising concept for lunar power distribution is the light bender—a system that utilizes autonomously deployed mirrors to reflect sunlight to shaded regions on the lunar surface. The light bender system consists of two components: tandem reflector mirrors (TRM) which reflect sunlight to a permanently shaded region and the Cassegrain Fresnel distribution optics (CFDO) which collects the reflected light from the TRM and redirects light to local consumer nodes. This paper describes the light bender system concepts and the associated system analysis and technology development performed as part of a 2021 NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) phase I award.

Bradford Robertson↗

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y. Zhu↗

Development of a Lunar Lander Modeling and Simulation Capability

The development and validation of a capability to perform quantitative, physics-based analysis of alternatives of conceptual unmanned, reusable lunar cargo lander architectures is discussed. The lander is conceptualized as a suite of disciplines that need to be sized, synthesized, and optimized for a mission. As such, models of these disciplines were developed and integrated in a recently-developed multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization framework for space systems. The development of the disciplines, as well as how they are integrated into the framework, is discussed. Additionally, validation studies were performed against the Descent Module of the Altair lunar lander. Finally, an example problem for an uncrewed, reusable lander is presented.

Eugina Mendez Ramos↗

Development of a Lunar Lander Modeling and Simulation Capability

The development and validation of a capability to perform quantitative, physics-based analysis of alternatives of conceptual unmanned, reusable lunar cargo lander architectures is discussed. The lander is conceptualized as a suite of disciplines that need to be sized, synthesized, and optimized for a mission. As such, models of these disciplines were developed and integrated in a recently-developed multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization framework for space systems. The development of the disciplines, as well as how they are integrated into the framework, is discussed. Additionally, validation studies were performed against the Descent Module of the Altair lunar lander. Finally, an example problem for an uncrewed, reusable lander is presented.

Eugina Mendez Ramos↗

A Methodology for Actuating RCS Jets in a Continuous, Time-Accurate CFD Simulation

Computational fluid dynamics simulations of Mars entry vehicle reaction control systems have been used to gain a better understanding of the wide range of flow phenomena encountered during various phases of flight. One aspect of this is simulating the system during controlled flight. Current practices model the system in a continuously actuated state, but this methodology is unable to accurately model the dynamic behavior of the system during EDL. One method to improve this is to create a coupled CFD-RBD-Control simulation. The first step to this is establishing a method of accurately actuating an RCS jet during a time accurate CFD simulation. This paper presents a method to achieve this actuation. There are three phases to the methodology: establishing the off state, creating a ramping function that will initialize the jet flow, and establishing the on state. A test case of a jet in a supersonic crossflow is implemented to establish the success of the methodology in being able to actuate a jet in the midst of an ongoing CFD simulation. It shows significant improvement in boundary condition responsiveness for linear and exponential ramping functions in comparison to the step function. A preliminary demonstration of the methodology is presented for the MSL vehicle which shows significant advantages for the implementation of a linear ramping function over a step function.

Alexandra Hickey↗

A Methodology for Actuating RCS Jets in a Continuous, Time-Accurate CFD Simulation

Computational fluid dynamics simulations of Mars entry vehicle reaction control systems have been used to gain a better understanding of the wide range of flow phenomena encountered during various phases of flight. One aspect of this is simulating the system during controlled flight. Current practices model the system in a continuously actuated state, but this methodology is unable to accurately model the dynamic behavior of the system during EDL. One method to improve this is to create a coupled CFD-RBD-Control simulation. The first step to this is establishing a method of accurately actuating an RCS jet during a time accurate CFD simulation. This paper presents a method to achieve this actuation. There are three phases to the methodology: establishing the off state, creating a ramping function that will initialize the jet flow, and establishing the on state. A test case of a jet in a supersonic crossflow is implemented to establish the success of the methodology in being able to actuate a jet in the midst of an ongoing CFD simulation. It shows significant improvement in boundary condition responsiveness for linear and exponential ramping functions in comparison to the step function. A preliminary demonstration of the methodology is presented for the MSL vehicle which shows significant advantages for the implementation of a linear ramping function over a step function.

Alexandra Hickey↗