Engineering topics
Bradley, Thomas H.
Publications and source records attributed to Bradley, Thomas H..
Real-Time Implementation Comparison of Urban Eco-Driving Controls
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Developing a profile of medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle fleet adopters with text mining and machine learning
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Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets
This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.
Mobility and Energy Improvements Realized through Prediction-based Vehicle Powertrain Control and Traffic Management (Research Performance Final Report)
The goal of this project was to utilize individual vehicle and systems-level transportation big data to develop real-world implementable techniques for energy efficiency. We collected a real world dataset in Fort Collins, CO using technology that is currently available. This dataset was used to (1) create individual vehicle prediction models and emissions models using cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, (2) create traffic prediction models, (3) create boundary condition constraints for optimal trajectory derivation, and (4) develop a novel Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) model for Fort Collins, CO at a fidelity and flexibility which did not previously exist. Each of these techniques is novel but the most interesting results occurred from the intersection of all techniques. It was found that when optimal vehicle control is combined with optimal traffic light control, that significant energy efficiency improvements that do not compromise travel time are available.
Economic feasibility of in-motion wireless power transfer in a high-density traffic corridor
Electricity is expected to become a dominant power source in the transportation sector, but under a stationary recharging model, electric powered vehicles still suffer some disadvantages relative to conventional vehicles. Recent developments in wireless power transfer (WPT) technology can enable an alternative vehicle recharging model wherein power is supplied to vehicles while they are moving, mitigating the need for charging stops and high-capacity on-board energy storage. One of the greatest concerns associated with dynamic WPT is that the required infrastructure costs would be prohibitively high; however, the life-cycle costs and benefits of such a system have been under-researched. Here in this work, we apply a systems-level assessment to a case study of a WPT charging system located on the densely trafficked I-710 corridor in Los Angeles, California. Detailed cost estimates for electronics and implementation, high-fidelity energy consumption modeling, and survey-derived adoption projections are applied to evaluate scenarios of economic feasibility and environmental impact. Results show that a “1st-of-a-kind” system can achieve a payback in 20 years while maintaining operating cost advantages relative to petroleum fueling. System economics are shown to improve substantially with “nth-of-a-kind” capital costs. Discussion focuses on the effect of uptake trajectory on economic viability and detailed economics outcomes for light duty and heavy duty vehicles.
Development and Evaluation of Velocity Predictive Optimal Energy Management Strategies in Intelligent and Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles
In this study, a thorough and definitive evaluation of Predictive Optimal Energy Management Strategy (POEMS) applications in connected vehicles using 10 to 20 s predicted velocity is conducted for a Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV). The presented methodology includes synchronous datasets gathered in Fort Collins, Colorado using a test vehicle equipped with sensors to measure ego vehicle position and motion and that of surrounding objects as well as receive Infrastructure to Vehicle (I2V) information. These datasets are utilized to compare the effect of different signal categories on prediction fidelity for different prediction horizons within a POEMS framework. Multiple artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms use the collected data to output future vehicle velocity prediction models. The effects of different combinations of signals and different models on prediction fidelity in various prediction windows are explored. All of these combinations are ultimately addressed where the rubber meets the road: fuel economy (FE) enabled from POEMS. FE optimization is performed using Model Predictive Control (MPC) with a Dynamic Programming (DP) optimizer. FE improvements from MPC control at various prediction time horizons are compared to that of full-cycle DP. All FE results are determined using high-fidelity simulations of an Autonomie 2010 Toyota Prius model. The full-cycle DP POEMS provides the theoretical upper limit on fuel economy (FE) improvement achievable with POEMS but is not currently practical for real-world implementation. Perfect prediction MPC (PP-MPC) represents the upper limit of FE improvement practically achievable with POEMS. Real-Prediction MPC (RP-MPC) can provide nearly equivalent FE improvement when used with high-fidelity predictions. Constant-Velocity MPC (CV-MPC) uses a constant speed prediction and serves as a “null” POEMS. Results showed that RP-MPC, enabled by high-fidelity ego future speed prediction, led to significant FE improvement over baseline nearly matching that of PP-MPC.
Biomass feedstock transport using fuel cell and battery electric trucks improves lifecycle metrics of biofuel sustainability and economy
We report the use of new vehicle technologies such as fuel cell hybrid electric and fully electric powertrains for biomass feedstock supply is an unexplored solution to reducing biofuel production cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and health impacts. These technologies have found success in light-duty vehicle applications and are in development for heavy-duty trucks. This study presents the first detailed stochastic techno-economic analysis and life-cycle assessment of biomass feedstock supply systems with diesel, fuel cell hybrid electric, and fully electric trucks and determines their impacts on biofuel production considering butanol as a representative biofuel. This study finds that fuel cell hybrid electric and fully electric trucks consume less energy relative to the diesel-powered truck regardless of the evaluated circumstances, including payloads of truck (loaded and empty), pavement types (gravel and paved), road conditions (normal and damaged), and road networks (local and highways). The use of fuel cell hybrid and fully electric trucks powered by H 2 -fuel and renewable sources of electricity, respectively, results in a large reduction in cost and carbon footprint, specifically for a long-distance hauling, and minimize other economic and environmental impacts. While the economic advantage of fuel cell hybrid electric vehicle is dependent on the price of H 2 -fuel and road conditions, use reduces the GHG emissions of biobutanol per 100 km-trucking-distance by 0.98-10.9 gCO 2e /MJ. Results show that converting to fully electric truck transport decreases the biobutanol production cost and GHG emissions per 100 km-trucking-distance by 0.4-7.3 cents/L and 0.78 to 9.1 gCO 2e /MJ, respectively. This study establishes the foundation for future investigations that will guide the development of economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable biomass feedstock supply system for cellulosic biorefineries or other goods transportation systems.
A dynamic thermal algal growth model for pilot-scale open-channel raceways
Here this study describes the makeup of and results from a simulation consisting of a lumped thermal model integrated with a dynamic algae growth model to simulate the microalgae productivity of an open-channel raceway cultivation system. The thermal model considers the dynamic effects of weather, light absorption, convective heat transfer, radiation heat transfer, conductive heat transfer, thermal capacitance, and water control strategies. The dynamic algae growth model solves a set of ordinary differential equations consisting of growth functions dependent on incident radiation, temperature, nutrient availability, basal metabolism, and losses due to dark- and photo-respiration. Relative errors in the predicted ash-free dry weight of Nannochloropsis oceanica are 12.5%, -6.1%, and 4.4% for three separate replicates of cultivation cycles (~4.2 m 2 ) performed at AzCATI during the ATP 3 Unified Field Studies in Fall, Spring, and Summer. This research demonstrates that thermal modeling is an essential contributor to the validation of microalgae growth models.
Retail Hydrogen Station Reliability Status and Advances
One of the most vital emerging commercial markets for hydrogen is fuel cell-powered mobility including cars, trucks, and buses. These vehicles are refueled via a network of hydrogen fueling stations, with the highest number of U.S. stations being in California. The numbers of both fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and hydrogen stations have increased in the last two years, with anecdotal information from FCEV drivers indicating that station reliability is hurting the consumer acceptability of FCEV technologies. Therefore, this study benchmarks the current state of hydrogen station reliability in practice and presents on-going research that is investigating the failures that are contribute to hydrogen station reliability issues. This is accomplished with an analysis of operation, safety, and maintenance data from hydrogen stations and fuel cell electric vehicles to benchmark the maintenance and failure of hydrogen stations and their components. This analysis, of over 5,000 station maintenance events, presents the leading maintenance categories and failure rates, and is a prerequisite to the development of data-driven reliability improvement plans. We present a reliability growth analysis and on-going research into the root causes of failure for dispensers, a particularly failure-prone subsystem.
Preliminary Results from a Model-Driven Architecture Methodology for Development of an Event-Driven Space Communications Service Concept
NASA's next generation space communications network will involve dynamic and autonomous services analogous to services provided by current terrestrial wireless networks. This architecture concept, known as the Space Mobile Network (SMN), is enabled by several technologies now in development. A pillar of the SMN architecture is the establishment and utilization of a continuous bidirectional control plane space link channel and a new User Initiated Service (UIS) protocol to enable more dynamic and autonomous mission operations concepts, reduced user space communications planning burden, and more efficient and effective provider network resource utilization. This paper provides preliminary results from the application of model driven architecture methodology to develop UIS. Such an approach is necessary to ensure systematic investigation of several open questions concerning the efficiency, robustness, interoperability, scalability and security of the control plane space link and UIS protocol.