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Branscome, Lee E.

Publications and source records attributed to Branscome, Lee E..

The impact of greenhouse climate change on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies

Atmospheric transient eddies contribute significantly to mid-latitude energy and water vapor transports. Changes in the global climate, as induced by greenhouse enhancement, will likely alter transient eddy behavior. Unraveling all the feedbacks that occur in general circulation models (GCMs) can be difficult. The transient eddies are isolated from the feedbacks and are focused on the response of the eddies to zonal-mean climate changes that result from CO2-doubling. Using a primitive-equation spectral model, the impact of climate change on the life cycles of transient eddies is examined. Transient eddy behavior in experiments is compared with initial conditions that are given by the zonal-mean climates of the GCMs with current and doubled amounts of CO2. The smaller meridional temperature gradient in a doubled CO2 climate leads to a reduction in eddy kinetic energy, especially in the subtropics. The decrease in subtropical eddy energy is related to a substantial reduction in equatorward flux of eddy activity during the latter part of the life cycle. The reduction in equatorward energy flux alters the moisture cycle. Eddy meridional transport of water vapor is shifted slightly poleward and subtropical precipitation is reduced. The water vapor transport exhibits a relatively small change in magnitude, compared to changes in eddy energy, due to the compensating effect of higher specific humidity in the doubled-CO2 climate. An increase in high-latitude precipitation is related to the poleward shift in eddy water vapor flux. Surface evaporation amplifies climatic changes in water vapor transport and precipitation in the experiments.

Branscome, Lee E.↗

The effects of large-scale topography on the circulation in low-order models

This paper investigates the effect of topography on circulation produced by low-order quasi-geostrophic models that are capable of reproducing many basic features of midlatitude general circulation in the absence of topography. Using a simple two-level spectral model, time-mean stationary waves and low-frequency phenomena were examined for three different topographic configurations, of which two consisted of a sinusoidal mountain-valley structure, and the third was the Fourier representation of an isolated mountain peak. In the experiment with an isolated mountain, it was found that the time-mean wave in the model was highly dependent on the operation of wave-wave interactions, which had a significant impact on stationary waves through modifications in the mean zonal flow.

O'Brien, Enda↗

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Branscome, Lee E.↗

Minimal modeling of the extratropical general circulation

The ability of low-order, two-layer models to reproduce basic features of the mid-latitude general circulation is investigated. Changes in model behavior with increased spectral resolution are examined in detail. Qualitatively correct time-mean heat and momentum balances are achieved in a beta-plane channel model which includes the first and third meridional modes. This minimal resolution also reproduces qualitatively realistic surface and upper-level winds and mean meridional circulations. Higher meridional resolution does not result in substantial changes in the latitudinal structure of the circulation. A qualitatively correct kinetic energy spectrum is produced when the resolution is high enough to include several linearly stable modes. A model with three zonal waves and the first three meridional modes has a reasonable energy spectrum and energy conversion cycle, while also satisfying heat and momentum budget requirements. This truncation reproduces the basic mechanisms and zonal circulation features that are obtained at higher resolution. The model performance improves gradually with higher resolution and is smoothly dependent on changes in external parameters.

O'Brien, Enda↗

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

Simple models are being developed to simulate interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves incorporating the effects of large-scale topography; eddy heat and momentum fluxes (or nonlinear dynamics); radiative heating/cooling; and latent heat release (precipitation) in synoptic-scale waves. The importance of latent heat release is determined in oceanic storm tracks for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary waves. The model results were compared with available observations of planetary and synoptic-scale wave variability and time-mean circulation. The usefulness of monitoring precipitation in oceanic storm tracks by satellite observing systems was ascertained. The modeling effort includes two different low-order quasi-geostrophic models-time-dependent version and climatological mean version. The modeling also includes a low-order primitive equation model. A time-dependent, multi-level version will be used to validate the two-level Q-G models and examine effects of spherical geometry.

Branscome, Lee E.↗

Modes of variability in a low-order two-level model

A low-order two-level mode in a beta-plane channel is integrated over long periods of time to investigate low-frequency midlatitude variability. The model takes into account nonlinear wave-wave and wave-mean flow interactions as well as zonally asymmetric forcing by topography. The following properties of the model are examined: model scaling and response to variation of parameters, extra damping at the shortest scale, time-mean model flow, and variance.

O'Brien, Enda↗

A simple model for the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves in the troposphere

The time-mean circulation of the troposphere during the Northern hemisphere winter is dominated by planetary-scale stationary waves superposed on longitudinal-mean westerly flow. The movement and generation of weather-making, synoptic-scale transient waves are controlled by this large-scale circulation. The interannual variablity of planetary scale waves determines the severity of the winter season over broad geographic regions through such factors as frequency of storms, precipitation and temperature. A conceptual model that incorporates these feedbacks between the two scales is developed and guides the formulation of the quantitative low-order model which retains a few basic physical processes and wave components. In the low-order model the fluxes of sensible heat and momentum and latent heat release by transient eddies are parameterized in terms of the evolving large-scale circulation. Radiative forcing and damping, planetary-scale variations in moisture and topography and Ekman dissipation are also included. Testing of this model is in progress. The results will help interpret experiments from sophisticated general-circulation models and ascertain the need for satellite observations of precipitation.

Branscome, Lee E.↗