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Bras, R. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Bras, R. L..

Precipitation recycling in the Amazon basin

Precipitation recycling is the contribution of evaporation within a region to precipitation in that same region. The recycling rate is a diagnostic measure of the potential for interactions between land surface hydrology and regional climate. In this paper we present a model for describing the seasonal and spatial variability of the recycling process. The precipitation recycling ratio, rho, is the basic variable in describing the recycling process. Rho is the fraction of precipitation at a certain location and time which is contributed by evaporation within the region under study. The recycling model is applied in studyiing the hydrologic cycle in the Amazon basin. It is estimated that about 25% of all the rain that falls in the Amazon basin is contributed by evaporation within the basin. This estimate is based on analysis of a data set supplied by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The same analysis is repeated using a different data set from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Based on this data set, the recycling ratio is estimated to be 35%. The seasonal variability of the recycling ratio is small compared with the yearly average. The new estimates of the recycling ratio are compared with results of previous studies, and the differences are explained.

Eltahir, E. A. B.↗

On the response of the tropical atmosphere to large-scale deforestation

Recent studies on the Amazon deforestation problem predict that removal of the forest will result in a higher surface temperature, a significant reduction in evaporation and precipitation, and possibly significant changes in the tropical circulation. Here, we discuss the basic mechanisms contributing to the response of the tropical atmosphere to deforestation. A simple linear model of the tropical atmosphere is used in studying the effects of deforestation on climate. It is suggested that the impact of large-scale deforestation on the circulation of the tropical atmosphere consists of two components: the response of the tropical circulation to the negative change in precipitation (heating), and the response of the same circulation to the positive change in surface temperature. Owing to their different signs, the changes in predicted temperature and precipitation excite competing responses working in opposite directions. The predicted change in tropical circulation determines the change, if any, in atmospheric moisture convergence, which is equivalent to the change in run-off. The dependence of run-off predictions on the relative magnitudes of the predicted changes in precipitation and surface temperature implies that the predictions about run-off are highly sensitive, which explains, at least partly, the disagreement between the different models concerning the sign of the predicted change in Amazonian run-off.

Eltahir, E. A. B.↗

A description of rainfall interception over large areas

A new scheme is developed for describing interception at spatial scales comparable to the typical resolution of climate models. The scheme is based on the Rutter model of interception and statistical description of the subgrid-scale spatial variability of canopy storage and rainfall. The interception loss simulated by the new scheme is significantly smaller than those simulated by other schemes that do not include considerations for spatial variability. The explanation of this result is partly in the enhancement of spatially averaged canopy drainage due to the large local drainage from the few buckets of large canopy storage. The relative reduction in interception loss simulated by the new scheme may explain the overestimation of interception loss by climate models that do not include the effects of spatial variability on interception processes.

Eltahir, E. A. B.↗

Estimation of the fractional coverage of rainfall in climate models

The fraction of the grid cell area covered by rainfall, mu, is an essential parameter in descriptions of land surface hydrology in climate models. A simple procedure is presented for estimating this fraction, based on extensive observations of storm areas and rainfall volumes. Storm area and rainfall volume are often linearly related; this relation can be used to compute the storm area from the volume of rainfall simulated by a climate model. A formula is developed for computing mu, which describes the dependence of the fractional coverage of rainfall on the season of the year, the geographical region, rainfall volume, and the spatial and temporal resolution of the model. The new formula is applied in computing mu over the Amazon region. Significant temporal variability in the fractional coverage of rainfall is demonstrated. The implications of this variability for the modeling of land surface hydrology in climate models are discussed.

Eltahir, E. A. B.↗