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Brendon K Colbert

Publications and source records attributed to Brendon K Colbert.

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Convex Optimization Approach to Improving Suboptimal Hyperparameters of Sliced Normal Distributions

Sliced Normal (SN) distributions are a generalization of Gaussian distributions where the quadratic argument of the exponential is replaced with a sum of squares polynomial. SNs may be used to represent the distribution of a diverse set of random variables including multi-modal, non-symmetric, and skewed distributions. Unfortunately, the likelihood function of a SN includes a normalization constant and the inclusion of this normalization constant makes the likelihood a non-convex function of the hyperparameters which define the SN. In previous work, suboptimal fitting of the hyperparameters was performed by transforming the given data into a higher dimensional monomial basis and selecting the optimal hyperparameters of a Gaussian fit in this space. However, this approach did not account for the effect of lifting on the normalization constant. Indeed, it was observed that as the number of monomials is increased the likelihood of the Sliced Normal can decrease. In this paper, we increase the likelihood of Sliced Normals found using the previous method by developing a convex formulation which scales the covariance matrix of the Gaussian fit such that the likelihood of the Sliced Normal is maximized. The result is significant improvements of the log likelihood of fitted SN distributions, including a significant increase, especially for problems with 500+ monomials.

Convex optimization approach to improving suboptim↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparisons of Performance Metrics and Machine Learning Methods on an Entry Descent and Landing Database

This work focuses on evaluating machine learning methods and their applicability to the generation of an aerodynamic database, particularly for trajectory analysis of a capsule during entry, descent, and landing with a focus on uncertainty quantification. The source data to be used is the wind tunnel and computational data for the Integrated Design Assessment Team (IDAT) configuration of the Orion project, which has been publicly released. The methods used to generate the proposed databases are designed to naturally include a prediction interval, which will be evaluated both for their mean response as well as how well the prediction interval performs. These machine learning methods are compared to a traditionally generated database used by the Orion team as a baseline. It is found that while these machine learning methods perform well, the Orion database tends to still outperform them showing that engineering experience is still needed to make the best database possible. However, these methods still provide comparable results with significantly less effort.

Orion↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗