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Bryan Duncan

Publications and source records attributed to Bryan Duncan.

38 records · Page 3

ILEOS: A Novel Intelligent Observing System Enabled by High Altitude Long Endurance Uncrewed Aerial Systems

Most major global satellite surveyors of climate-relevant trace gases have relatively coarse spatial resolution or temporal sampling. While these data can be supplemented by fine-pointing satellites and aircraft, the spatial and temporal resolutions available from crewed aircraft is not sufficient to observe stochastic, ephemeral events that take place between observations. Emerging High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS) can operate for months at a time and loiter over targets to provide continuous daylight geostationary-like observations, allowing these new platforms to be integrated with existing satellites as part of a New Observing Strategy (NOS).To aid in the planning of future NOS missions, NASA is developing the Intelligent Long Endurance Observing System (ILEOS), a science activity planning system. ILEOS will help scientists build plans to improve spatio-temporal resolution of climate-relevant gases by fusing coarse-grained sensor data from satellites and other sources(e.g., terrain, forecasts), and plan HALE UAS flights to obtain finer-grain (high spatio-temporal) data. ILEOS will also enable observations for longer periods and of environments not accessible through in-situ observations and crewed aircraft field campaigns.

science planning pipeline

Linking OH Variability to Observable Variables, Meteorology and Transport

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays a vital role in tropospheric chemistry, as it provides the dominant sink for a multitude of pollutants and climate-relevant gases such as methane. Observational constraints on the global distribution and temporal variability of OH are limited, and models simulate a wide range of OH distributions. While OH itself has a short atmospheric lifetime, OH is photochemically coupled to longer-lived species that undergo atmospheric transport. Here, we investigate how much of the OH variability within and between models can be explained by differences in observable species to develop diagnostics for OH differences. We find that NO 2 and water vapor together explain much of the spatial and temporal variability in simulated OH, and we use satellite observations to identify biases in these variables. The OH response to ENSO also differs between models, and we investigate potential causes of these differences such as differences in convection or lightning NOx. We also explore the potential of idealized tracers to represent the OH distribution. Within a single model, meteorological variables such as humidity and idealized tracers of transport can explain a significant portion of the OH spatial variability. We use a Gradient Boosted Regression Trees, a type of machine learning, to account for non-linear relationships between OH and the input variables.

Meteorology