Bryan, Jacob A. | Search NASA

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Objective Optimization of a Bi-Metal High-Temperature Recuperator for Application in Concentrating Solar Power

Supercritical CO 2 closed Brayton cycles are a major candidate for future power cycle designs in concentrating solar power applications, with high-temperature recuperators playing an essential role in realizing their high thermal efficiency. Here, printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHEs) are often chosen for this role due to their thermal-hydraulic and mechanical performance at high temperatures and pressures, all while remaining compact. However, PCHEs can be costly because of the high-performance materials demanded in these applications, and the heat exchanger internal geometry is restricted by their manufacturing process. Additively manufactured heat exchangers can address both of these shortcomings. This work proposes a modular bi-metal high-temperature recuperator with integrated headers to be produced with additive manufacturing. Beginning with existing PCHE channel geometries, a 1D heat exchanger model is developed. Then, multi-objective optimization is used to maximize the heat transfer effectiveness of a lab-scale device while limiting its size. Two distinct channel geometries emerge from the optimization. Optimal designs achieve up to 88% effectiveness with negligible pressure drop. Deterioration of effectiveness due to axial conduction of heat in the heat exchanger walls is found to be a notable problem for lab-scale PCHEs, and the optimal designs obtained here minimize its detrimental effects. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the effectiveness of the recuperator is much less sensitive to variation in mass flowrate in off-design operation when axial conduction is significant, while increasing the length of the device easily increases effectiveness.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗