Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Bush, Brian W.
Determine how cost, technology, and stakeholder behavior can accelerate or impede CAV adoption and affect energy use, both during transition and at end states with varying CAV use, through development of a semi-quantitative 'CAV scenario generation' model, identifying data gaps needing future research.
Bioproducts are chemicals derived from a biomass feedstock that can be produced on their own or as biofuel co-products. Historically, bioproduct developers have faced significant barriers in scaling up bioproduct technologies and in bringing bioproducts to market, resulting in a high failure rate for bioproduct development projects. To date, there has been essentially no research done on the factors that lead to a bioproduct successfully capturing market share and why bioproduct projects fail. We address this knowledge gap with a model of the transition dynamics involved in taking a bioproduct technology from applied research to commercial production and the interactions between bioproduct developers, investors providing private funds, and federal government agencies which may provide cost-sharing and production incentives. This model incorporates several novel techniques including stochastic submodels and forecasts of market shares and company performance. Our research objectives are to identify relevant factors and mechanisms that impact bioproduct success and to develop a decision support tool, the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, that can be used by investors, bioproduct developers and government agencies to bring more bioproducts to market and to grow the nascent bioproducts industry.
Presentation provides an overview of NREL's hydrogen market assessment analysis, which includes demand, supply, and financial analyses.
TBDWe present insights gained from over 10 years of system dynamic modeling of the cellulose to biofuel industry in the United States. We use a publicly-available Biomass Scenario Model to explore the impact of logistics system, economies of scale, and shared industrial learning on the developing cellulose-to-biofuels industry in the United States. One theme from this study as well as from the work performed over the last decade is the importance of the movement of the system toward maturation, both in terms of the supply system and the conversion processes. Mature processes imply lower investment risk, better yields, and better process economics.
Challenges to deployment of connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies extend beyond the vehicle and systems engineering challenges, and arise from a set of technological, economic, demographic, and regulatory issues. Informed observers develop intuition about these challenges, but without analytic tools their understanding may be limited as a basis for considering possible actions. We moved beyond the limitations of such intuition to an integrated systems analysis capability to explore CAVs deployment potential. We analyzed the potential for large-scale adoption of CAVs and barriers to such adoption, using quantitative data and understandings of system relationships among stakeholders across the breadth of technological, economic, demographic, and regulatory issues.
The U.S. Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office has a broad understanding of different conversion processes that produce bioproducts (chemicals derived from biomass feedstocks) and the market attributes of those processes. However, bioproducts have in many cases proven to be difficult to scale up to commercial production and bring to market, and there is currently a need for greater understanding around the possible successful scenarios for advancing the bioproducts industry. Insight into the myriad factors that impact the success of individual bioproducts and the growth of the bioproducts industry will enable bioproduct stakeholders to evaluate strategies for development and investment that could achieve the greatest impact. An understanding of these factors will also enable the identification of synergies between the bioproducts and biofuels industries that occur through shared learning and co-production. The Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model explores questions such as the following: what are the factors that separate a successful, commercially produced bioproduct like succinic acid from one that never progresses beyond bench-scale lab research? Can these factors be influenced by stakeholders, and to what extent? The BTD model uses system dynamics to capture the impacts of investor decision-making, bioproduct techno-economics, and market factors during the early stages of bioproduct development. Key components of the BTD model include techno-economic benchmarks that inform the investor decision-making process, failures and setbacks in development and the resulting need for additional work, and the impacts of effective or ineffective management during each development stage. These factors and their interactions are tracked through bench-scale laboratory research, piloting, demoing, and the construction and operation of the first commercial-scale plant. Bioproduct development is linked to the biofuels industry through a shared-learning model, enabling the benefit to biofuels from bioproduct technology and feedstock supply chain development to be quantified. A wide variety of bioproducts can be analyzed using the BTD model, including bioproducts that have been developed through economic or policy-driven mechanisms, and those with either niche (low volume) or scalable (high volume) markets. The BTD model also has the potential to apply to technology development processes outside the bioproducts industry; background research performed for this project has shown that the early stages of technology development are similar, and impacted by similar factors, regardless of the exact industry. This presentation will cover the BTD model logic, input data, validation process, and results of a sensitivity analysis based on techno-economic data for succinic acid. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify factors with the largest impact on the eventual success or failure of a bioproduct. Results indicate that management effectiveness, which affects how efficiently money spent is converted into technological advancements, is the single most important factor in determining whether a bioproduct reaches commercial-scale production. The capacity of the first commercial plant and the type of biomass feedstock used, as well as the presence of government support in the form of cost-sharing, were also identified as significant factors.
The U.S. Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office has a broad understanding of different conversion processes that produce bioproducts (chemicals derived from biomass feedstocks) and the techno-economic attributes of those processes. However, bioproducts have in many cases proven to be difficult to scale up to commercial production, and there is currently a need for greater understanding around the possible successful scenarios for advancing the bioproducts industry. Insight into the myriad factors that impact the success of individual bioproducts and the growth of the bioproducts industry will enable bioproduct stakeholders to evaluate strategies for development and investment that could achieve the greatest impact. An understanding of these factors will also enable the identification of synergies between the bioproducts and biofuels industries that occur through shared learning and co-production. The Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model explores questions such as the following: what are the factors that separate a successful, commercially produced bioproduct like succinic acid from one that never progresses beyond bench-scale lab research? Can these factors be influenced by stakeholders, and to what extent? The BTD model uses system dynamics to capture the impacts of investor decision-making, bioproduct techno-economics, and end use factors during the early stages of bioproduct development. Key components of the BTD model include techno-economic benchmarks that inform the investor decision-making process, failures and setbacks in development and the resulting need for additional work, and the impacts of effective or ineffective management during each development stage. These factors and their interactions are tracked through bench-scale laboratory research, piloting, demoing, and the construction and operation of the first commercial-scale plant. Bioproduct development is linked to the biofuels industry through a shared-learning model, enabling the benefit to biofuels from bioproduct technology and feedstock supply chain development to be quantified. A wide variety of bioproducts can be analyzed using the BTD model, including bioproducts that have been developed through economic or policy-driven mechanisms, and those with either niche (low volume) or scalable (high volume) demand. The BTD model also has the potential to apply to technology development processes outside the bioproducts industry; background research performed for this project has shown that the early stages of technology development are similar, and impacted by similar factors, regardless of the exact industry. This presentation will cover the BTD model logic, input data, validation process, and results of a sensitivity analysis based on techno-economic data for succinic acid. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify factors with the largest impact on the eventual success or failure of a bioproduct. Results indicate that management effectiveness, which affects how efficiently money spent is converted into technological advancements, is the single most important factor in determining whether a bioproduct reaches commercial-scale production. The capacity of the first commercial plant and the type of biomass feedstock used, as well as the presence of government support in the form of cost-sharing, were also identified as significant factors.
The fast computation which is critical for immersive engagement with and learning from energy simulations would be furthered by developing a general method for creating rapidly computed simplified versions of NREL's computation-intensive energy simulations. Created using machine learning techniques, these 'reduced form' simulations can provide statistically sound estimates of the results of the full simulations at a fraction of the computational cost with response times - typically less than one minute of wall-clock time - suitable for real-time human-in-the-loop design and analysis. Additionally, uncertainty quantification techniques can document the accuracy of the approximate models and their domain of validity. Approximation methods are applicable to a wide range of computational models, including supply-chain models, electric power grid simulations, and building models. These reduced-form representations cannot replace or re-implement existing simulations, but instead supplement them by enabling rapid scenario design and quality assurance for large sets of simulations. We present an overview of the framework and methods we have implemented for developing these reduced-form representations.
We describe a new framework that allows users to explore and steer ensembles of energy systems simulations by coupling multiple energy models and interactive visualization through a dataflow API. Through the visual interface, users can interactively explore complex parameter spaces populated by hundreds, or thousands, of simulation runs and interactively spawn new simulations to 'fill in' regions of interest in the parameter space. The computational and visualization capabilities reside within a general-purpose dataflow architecture for connecting producers of multidimensional timeseries data, such as energy simulations, with consumers of that data, whether they be visualizations, statistical analyses, or datastores. Fast computation and agile dataflow can enhance the engagement with energy simulations, allowing users to populate the parameter space in real time. However, many energy simulations are far too slow to provide an interactive response. To support interactive feedback, we are creating reduced-form simulations developed through machine learning techniques, which provide statistically sound estimates of the results of the full simulations at a fraction of the computational cost. These reduced-form simulations have response times on the order of seconds, suitable for real-time human-in-the-loop design and analysis. The approximation methods apply to a wide range of computational models, including supply-chain models, electric power grid simulations, and building models. Such reduced-form representations do not replace or re-implement existing simulations, but instead supplement them by enabling rapid scenario design and exploration for large ensembles of simulations. The improved understanding, facilitated by the reduced-form models, dataflow API, and visualization tools, allows researchers to better allocate computational resources to capture informative relationships within the system as well as provide a low-cost method for validating and quality-checking large-scale modeling efforts.
Variance-based sensitivity methods can provide insights into large computational models. We present a novel application of sensitivity analysis to the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) a large and complex system dynamics model of the developing biofuels industry in the United States. We apply a two-stage sensitivity approach consisting of an initial sensitivity screening, followed by a variance decomposition approach. Identifying key system levers and quantifying their strength is not straightforward in complex system dynamics models that have numerous feedbacks and nonlinear results. Variance-based sensitivity analysis (VBSA) offers a systematic, global approach to assessing system dynamics models because it addresses nonlinear responses and interactive effects. Especially when a large model's size makes manual exploration of the input space difficult and time-consuming, the approach can help to provide a comprehensive understanding of interactions that drive model behaviors.
NREL presented an overview about hydrogen infrastructure financial and sustainability analysis at the California Hydrogen Business Council Summit in Sacramento, California, September 25-27, 2017.
We have developed a framework for the exploration, design, and planning of energy systems that combines interactive visualization with machine-learning based approximations of simulations through a general purpose dataflow API. Our system provides a visual inter- face allowing users to explore an ensemble of energy simulations representing a subset of the complex input parameter space, and spawn new simulations to 'fill in' input regions corresponding to new enegery system scenarios. Unfortunately, many energy simula- tions are far too slow to provide interactive responses. To support interactive feedback, we are developing reduced-form models via machine learning techniques, which provide statistically sound esti- mates of the full simulations at a fraction of the computational cost and which are used as proxies for the full-form models. Fast com- putation and an agile dataflow enhance the engagement with energy simulations, and allow researchers to better allocate computational resources to capture informative relationships within the system and provide a low-cost method for validating and quality-checking large-scale modeling efforts.
This brochure describes a system dynamics simulation (SD) framework that supports an end-to-end analysis workflow that is optimized for deployment on ESIF facilities(Peregrine and the Insight Center). It includes (I) parallel and distributed simulation of SD models, (ii) real-time 3D visualization of running simulations, and (iii) comprehensive database-oriented persistence of simulation metadata, inputs, and outputs.
This presentation describes a system dynamics simulation (SD) framework that supports an end-to-end analysis workflow that is optimized for deployment on ESIF facilities(Peregrine and the Insight Center). It includes (I) parallel and distributed simulation of SD models, (ii) real-time 3D visualization of running simulations, and (iii) comprehensive database-oriented persistence of simulation metadata, inputs, and outputs.
We illustrate the use of a computational framework for applying non-parametric statistical methods to the comparison of massive spatiotemporal datasets within a distributed computing environment.