Engineering topics

Bushuk, Mitchell

Publications and source records attributed to Bushuk, Mitchell.

2 records

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain role of clouds in shaping summertime atmosphere-sea ice connections in reanalyses and CMIP6 models

Downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) driven by the atmospheric and cloud conditions in the troposphere is suggested to be a dominant factor to determine the summertime net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean and thus plays a key role to shape the September sea ice. We use reanalyses and the self-organizing map (SOM) method to distinguish CMIP6 model performance in replicating the observed strong atmosphere-DLR connection. We find all models can reasonably simulate the linkage between key atmosphere variables and the clear sky DLR but behave differently in replicating the atmosphere-DLR connection due to cloud forcing. In ERA5 and strongly coupled models, tropospheric high pressure is associated with decreased clouds in the mid- and high-levels and increased clouds near the surface. This out-of-phase structure indicates that DLR cloud forcing is nearly neutral, making the clear sky DLR more important to bridge JJA circulation to late-summer sea ice. In MERRA-2 and weakly coupled models, tropospheric clouds display a vertically homogeneous reduction; the cloud DLR is thus strongly reduced due to the cooling effect, which partially cancels out the clear sky DLR and makes the total DLR less efficient to translate circulation forcing to sea ice. The differences of cloud vertical distribution in CMIP6 appear to be differentiated by circulation related relative humidity. Therefore, a better understanding of the discrepancy of different reanalyses and remote sensing products is critical to comprehensively evaluate simulated interactions among circulation, clouds, sea ice and energy budget at the surface in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗