Engineering topics

Caldeira, Ken

Publications and source records attributed to Caldeira, Ken.

12 records

DOE OSTI2020

Climate change as an incentive for future human migration

Human migration is both motivated and constrained by a multitude of socioeconomic and environmental factors, including climate-related factors. Climatic factors exert an influence on local and regional population density. Here, we examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today's relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such “all other factors held constant” analyses are unlikely to make quantitatively accurate predictions, but the order of magnitude and spatial pattern that come out of such an analysis can be useful when considering the influence of climate change on the possible scale and pattern of future incentives to migrate. Our results indicate that, within decades, climate change may provide hundreds of millions of people with additional incentive to migrate, largely from warm tropical and subtropical countries to cooler temperate countries, with India being the country with the greatest number of people with additional incentive to migrate. These climate-driven incentives would be among the broader constellation of incentives that influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be areas that are likely to be most adversely affected by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Deep Reductions in Energy Storage Costs on Highly Reliable Wind and Solar Electricity Systems.

We use 36 years (1980-2015) of hourly weather data over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to assess the impact of low-cost energy storage on highly reliable electricity systems that use only variable renewable energy (VRE; wind and solar photovoltaics). Even assuming perfect transmission of wind and solar generation aggregated over CONUS, energy storage costs would need to decrease several hundred-fold from current costs (to ~$1/kWh) in fully VRE electricity systems to yield highly reliable electricity without extensive curtailment of VRE generation. The role of energy storage changes from high-cost storage competing with curtailment to fill short-term gaps between VRE generation and hourly demand to near-free storage serving as seasonal storage for VRE resources. Energy storage faces "double penalties" in VRE/storage systems: with increasing capacity, (1) the additional storage is used less frequently and (2) hourly electricity costs would become less volatile, thus reducing price arbitrage opportunities for the additional storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2017

Correlation of the Largest Craters, Stratigraphic Impact Signatures, and Extinction Events Over the Past 250 Myr

The six largest known impact craters of the last 250 Myr (greater than or equal to 70 km in diameter), which are capable of causing significant environmental damage, coincide with four times of recognized extinction events at 36 (with 2 craters), 66, and 145 Myr ago, and possibly with two provisional extinction events at 168 and 215 Myr ago. These impact cratering events are accompanied by layers in the geologic record interpreted as impact ejecta. Chance occurrences of impacts and extinctions can be rejected at confidence levels of 99.96 percent (for 4 impact/extinctions) to 99.99 percent (for 6 impact/extinctions). These results argue that several extinction events over the last 250 Myr may be related to the effects of large-body impacts.

Extinctions; Impact craters; Ejecta layers↗

NASA NTRS2015

Periodic Impact Cratering and Extinction Events Over the Last 260 Million Years

The claims of periodicity in impact cratering and biological extinction events are controversial. Anewly revised record of dated impact craters has been analyzed for periodicity, and compared with the record of extinctions over the past 260 Myr. A digital circular spectral analysis of 37 crater ages (ranging in age from 15 to 254 Myr ago) yielded evidence for a significant 25.8 +/- 0.6 Myr cycle. Using the same method, we found a significant 27.0 +/- 0.7 Myr cycle in the dates of the eight recognized marine extinction events over the same period. The cycles detected in impacts and extinctions have a similar phase. The impact crater dataset shows 11 apparent peaks in the last 260 Myr, at least 5 of which correlate closely with significant extinction peaks. These results suggest that the hypothesis of periodic impacts and extinction events is still viable.

extinction↗

NASA NTRS2007

Workshop Report on Managing Solar Radiation

The basic concept of managing Earth's radiation budget is to reduce the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth so as to counterbalance the heating of the Earth that would otherwise result from the accumulation of greenhouse gases. The workshop did not seek to decide whether or under what circumstances solar radiation management should be deployed or which strategies or technologies might be best, if it were deployed. Rather, the workshop focused on defining what kinds of information might be most valuable in allowing policy makers more knowledgeably to address the various options for solar radiation management.

Lane, Lee↗

NASA NTRS2003

Strangelove Ocean and Deposition of Unusual Shallow-Water Carbonates After the End-Permian Mass Extinction

The severe mass extinction of marine and terrestrial organisms at the end of the Permian Period (approx. 251 Ma) was accompanied by a rapid negative excursion of approx. 3 to 4 per mil in the carbon-isotope ratio of the global surface oceans and atmosphere that persisted for some 500,000 into the Early Triassic. Simulations with an ocean-atmosphere/carbon-cycle model suggest that the isotope excursion can be explained by collapse of ocean primary productivity (a Strangelove Ocean) and changes in the delivery and cycling of carbon in the ocean and on land. Model results also suggest that perturbations of the global carbon cycle resulting from the extinctions led to short-term fluctuations in atmospheric pCO2 and ocean carbonate deposition, and to a long-term (>1 Ma) decrease in sedimentary burial of organic carbon in the Triassic. Deposition of calcium carbonate is a major sink of river-derived ocean alkalinity and for CO2 from the ocean/atmosphere system. The end of the Permian was marked by extinction of most calcium carbonate secreting organisms. Therefore, the reduction of carbonate accumulation made the oceans vulnerable to a build-up of alkalinity and related fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. Our model results suggest that an increase in ocean carbonate-ion concentration should cause increased carbonate accumulation rates in shallow-water settings. After the end-Permian extinctions, early Triassic shallow-water sediments show an abundance of abiogenic and microbial carbonates that removed CaCO3 from the ocean and may have prevented a full 'ocean-alkalinity crisis' from developing.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Major episodes of geologic change - Correlations, time structure and possible causes

Published data sets of major geologic events of the past about 250 Myr (extinction events, sea-level lows, continental flood-basalt eruptions, mountain-building events, abrupt changes in sea-floor spreading, ocean-anoxic and blackshale events and the largest evaporite deposits) have been synthesized (with estimated errors). These events show evidence for a statistically significant periodic component with an underlying periodicity, formally equal to 26.6 Myr, and a recent maximum, close to the present time. The cycle may not be strictly periodic, but a periodicity of about 30 Myr is robust to probable errors in dating of the geologic events. The intervals of geologic change seem to involve jumps in sea-floor spreading associated with episodic continental rifting, volcanism, enhanced orogeny, global sea-level changes and fluctuations in climate. The period may represent a purely internal earth-pulsation, but evidence of planetesimal impacts at several extinction boundaries, and a possible underlying cycle of 28-36 Myr in crater ages, suggests that highly energetic impacts may be affecting global tectonics. A cyclic increase in the flux of planetesimals might result from the passage of the Solar System through the central plane of the Milky Way Galaxy - an event with a periodicity and mean phasing similar to that detected in the geologic changes.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The life span of the biosphere revisited

How much longer the biosphere can survive on earth is reexamined using a more elaborate model than that of Lovelock and Whitfield (1982). The model includes a more accurate treatment of the greenhouse effect of CO2, a biologically mediated weathering parametrization, and the realization that C4 photosynthesis can persist to much lower concentrations of atmospheric CO2. It is found that a C4-plant-based biosphere could survive for at least another 0.9 Gyr to 1.5 Gyr after the present time, depending respectively on whether CO2 or temperature is the limiting factor. Within an additional 1 Gyr, earth may lose water to space, thereby following the path of Venus.

Caldeira, Ken↗

NASA NTRS1992

Antipodal hotspot pairs on the earth

The results of statistical analyses performed on three published hotspot distributions suggest that significantly more hotspots occur as nearly antipodal pairs than is anticipated from a random distribution, or from their association with geoid highs and divergent plate margins. The observed number of antipodal hotspot pairs depends on the maximum allowable deviation from exact antipodality. At a maximum deviation of not greater than 700 km, 26 to 37 percent of hotspots form antipodal pairs in the published lists examined here, significantly more than would be expected from the general hotspot distribution. Two possible mechanisms that might create such a distribution include: (1) symmetry in the generation of mantle plumes, and (2) melting related to antipodal focusing of seismic energy from large-body impacts.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Episodes of terrestrial geologic activity during the past 260 million years - A quantitative approach

Records of major geologic events of the past about 260 Myr including: biologic extinction events, ocean-anoxic and black-shale events, major changes in sea level, major evaporite (salt) deposits, continental flood-basalt eruptions, first-order discontinuities in sea-floor spreading, and major mountain building events, have been aggregated and analyzed with moving-window and spectral techniques that facilitate recognition of clustering and possible cyclicity. Significant clustering of events suggests a model in which changes in rates and directions of sea-floor spreading ('ridge jumps') are associated with episodic rifting, volcanism, mountain building, global sea level and changes in the composition of the earth's atmosphere via the carbon cycle. The geologic data formally show a statistically significant underlying periodicity of 26.6 Myr for the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Phase information suggests that the most recent maximum of the cycle occurred with the last 9 Myr, and may be close to the present time.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The mid-Cretaceous super plume, carbon dioxide, and global warming

Carbon-dioxide releases associated with a mid-Cretaceous super plume and the emplacement of the Ontong-Java Plateau have been suggested as a principal cause of the mid-Cretaceous global warming. A carbonate-silicate cycle model is developed to quantify the possible climatic effects of these CO2 releases, utilizing four different formulations for the rate of silicate-rock weathering as a function of atmospheric CO2. CO2 emissions resulting from super-plume tectonics could have produced atmospheric CO2 levels from 3.7 to 14.7 times the modern preindustrial value of 285 ppm. Based on the temperature sensitivity to CO2 increases used in the weathering-rate formulations, this would cause a global warming of from 2.8 to 7.7 C over today's glogal mean temperature. Altered continental positions and higher sea level may have been contributed about 4.8 C to mid-Cretaceous warming. Thus, the combined effects of paleogeographic changes and super-plume related CO2 emissions could be in the range of 7.6 to 12.5 C, within the 6 to 14 C range previously estimated for mid-Cretaceous warming. CO2 releases from oceanic plateaus alone are unlikely to have been directly responsible for more than 20 percent of the mid-Cretaceous increase in atmospheric CO2.

Caldeira, Ken↗

NASA NTRS1990

Carbon dioxide emissions from Deccan volcanism and a K/T boundary greenhouse effect

A greenhouse warming caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide from the Deccan Traps volcanism has been suggested as the cause of the terminal Cretaceous extinctions on land and in the sea. Total eruptive and noneruptive CO2 output by the Deccan eruptions (from 6 to 20 x 10 to the 16th moles) over a period of several hundred thousand years is estimated based on best estimates of the CO2 weight fraction of the original basalts and basaltic melts, the fraction of CO2 degassed, and the volume of the Deccan Traps eruptions. Results of a model designed to estimate the effects of increased CO2 on climate and ocean chemistry suggest that increases in atmospheric pCO2 due to Deccan Traps CO2 emissions would have been less than 75 ppm, leading to a predicted global warming of less than 1 C over several hundred thousand years. It is concluded that the direct climate effects of CO2 emissions from the Deccan eruptions would have been too weak to be an important factor in the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions.

Caldeira, Ken↗