A Multi-Decadal Hourly Coincident Wind and Solar Power Production Dataset for the Contiguous United States
Not Available
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Engineering topics
Campbell, Allison M.
Publications and source records attributed to Campbell, Allison M..
Clustering Interval Load with Weather to Create Scenarios of Behind-the-Meter Solar Penetration
Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work proposes a methodology for creation of scenarios of solar penetration at the feeder level for use by forecasters to test the robustness of their algorithm to progressively higher penetrations of solar. The algorithm draws on publicly available observations of weather condition (e.g., rainy/cloudy/fair) for use as proxies to sky clearness. These observations are used to mask and weight the interval deviations of similar native usage profiles from which average interval usage is calculated and subsequently added to interval net generation to reconstruct interval total generation. This approach improves the estimate of annual energy generation by 23%; where the net generation signal currently reflects 52% of total annual gener- ation, now 75% is captured. This methodology for creation of forecast testing scenarios is data driven and extensible to service territories which lack information on irradiance measurements and geocoordinates.
solar, load↗
EverGREEN 2045: An Energy mix to Decarbonize Washington State
The Clean Energy Transformation Act transitions Washington State to 100% clean energy by 2045. As the future resource mix will likely include intermittent renewables, hydropower, and new, carbon-free, flexible technologies including advanced nuclear reactors and enhanced geothermal systems, we assess the cost and feasibility of the future resource mix with proprietary cost data from our industry partners for new technologies. For plausible future resource mix scenarios, we find that revenues are sufficient to cover variable operations and maintenance costs for most technologies, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will be necessary for new, flexible resources to participate in the future resource mix.
clean energy, energy policy, energy transition, re↗
EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State
Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
WE-Validate: An Open-Source Framework For Wind Power Validation
Grid operators rely on historical weather time series at existing and planned wind power plants to make informed decisions when planning for a future power grid with very high penetration of renewable power. While synthetic wind power time series have been developed based on historical weather models, their validation with actual power production data remains complex due to variations in modeling practices and methodologies. This paper introduces the WE-Validate framework, originally designed for wind speed validation and now enhanced for wind power validation with a graphical user interface to support users with minimal programming experience. Validation of wind power with WE-Validate is based on robust metrics consisting of RMSE, centered RMSE, average bias, average percent bias, mean absolute error, mean absolute percent error, cross correlation, and calculation of ramping magnitude, rate, and duration. This paper showcases WE-Validate with validation of synthetically derived power for a wind plant in Washington state for one month in 2018. Validation of the synthetic power from two comparison data sets compared with observations shows both comparison series have strong correlation with observed across weekly and monthly aggregations while suffering from persistent negative bias. The suite of metrics within WE-Validate facilitates immediate insight into the utility of the comparison data sets through compression across multiple axes. This user-friendly, open-source tool can be extended beyond wind power, making it a valuable resource for system planners and operators in different domains.
Moncheur de Rieudotte, Malcolm P.↗
An Assessment of Resource Drought Events as Indicators for Long-Duration Energy Storage Needs
This report includes quantitative assessment of energy deficits from prolonged low or no generation from variable energy resources - energy droughts (dunkelflaute). The assessment is done for various regions in North America, Europe, and Australia with contributing authors from those regions.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Weather Sensitive High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Transportation Electric Load Profiles For Multiple Decarbonization Pathways
Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. We present a novel approach to generating hourly electric load profiles that considers charging strategies and evolving sensitivity to temperature. The approach consists of downscaling annual state-scale sectoral load projections from the multisectoral Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) into hourly electric load profiles leveraging high resolution climate and population datasets. Profiles are developed and evaluated at the Balancing Authority scale, with a 5-year increment until 2050 over the Western U.S. Interconnect for multiple decarbonization pathways and climate scenarios. The datasets are readily available for production cost model analysis. Our open source approach is transferable to other regions.
Decarbonization, tranportation, Electric vehicle c↗
Integrated Assessment Modeling of Grid Resilience: GCAM-to-PCM Scoping
Deep decarbonization towards a net-zero emissions future and the associated growth in power demand, renewables, and changes in water availability will require significant evolution in grid planning. Many obstacles threaten the viability of near-term generation capacity build out, including the need for large-scale transmission expansion. Current very-long term planning tools do not adequately model physical representations of economic dispatch and system topology down to inter- and intra-regional transmission and distribution infrastructure. This project attempts to fill that gap.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Hydropower Value Drivers
Conventional hydro resources generate the majority of their value by providing energy under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing ancillary services and capacity increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. Pumped storage hydropower resources generate the majority of their value by providing capacity under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing energy increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. The total value of conventional hydropower generally decreases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs; this is largely due to the associated decrease in average energy prices. The total value of pumped storage generally increases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs, largely due to opportunities to operate in pumping mode when energy prices are low or even negative. Energy storage representation must be enhanced to ensure that models accurately capture system value streams for these resources. Current power system models have a limited ability to capture the price dynamics of ancillary services, and it is still challenging to assess the role and magnitude of ancillary service value streams in future systems. Power systems are currently in a state of rapid and dramatic evolution due to a number of different factors, including the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar, and battery energy storage systems (BESS). This evolution will change the way power systems are fundamentally planned and operated. Some of these changes may be incremental, while others may be more significant, but the result will likely be parallel evolution in the definition and requirement of different grid services and therefore a subsequent shift in their relative values. This report presents a framework developed to identify such system value drivers and quantify their relative impact on several different value streams, with a specific focus on implications for conventional hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) resources. This value drivers framework (VDF) encompasses five core analytical steps: 1. Identify potential drivers and develop scenarios, 2. Execute production cost models, 3. Calibrate prices, 4. Optimize hydropower operations, and 5. Quantify value drivers.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Hydropower Value Drivers
This report presents a framework developed to identify system value drivers and quantify their relative impact on several different value streams, with a specific focus on implications for conventional hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) resources.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
American-Made Challenges Round 2 Voucher: Orison Enables Solar
This report documents the technical assistance provided to Orison as part of the American-Made Challenges Round 2 Voucher: Orison Enables Solar project. A testbed was developed and used to demonstrate, using modeling and simulation, the capability of controlled behind-the-meter energy storage to (1) reduce net load variability caused by appliances and distributed generation and (2) enable customers to respond to the time-of-use pricing. We demonstrate that load leveling can shave peak loads or limit solar photovoltaic export and that load shifting enables customers to reduce load during “peak” pricing intervals. In the scenarios that we simulated, load leveling was effective up to the charging and discharging limits of the storage systems and the effectiveness of load shifting was a function of the energy capacity of the storage systems. This report describes the co-simulation testbed and the scenarios simulated, including controller setup and simulation results. Considerations for a multi-objective controller are also discussed.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Power-to-Gas System Valuation. Final Report
To provide a framework for evaluating the technical and financial benefits of a power-to-gas (P2G) system deployed in the Holyoke Gas and Electric (HG&E) system, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory modified its energy storage valuation tools to run a one-year simulation of P2G operations. The simulation was used to evaluate the benefits of P2G for multiple grid and industrial applications over the economic life of the unit, or units, depending on the asset configuration.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗