Engineering topics

Cane, M. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Cane, M. A..

14 records

NASA NTRS2001

Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Experimental forecasts of El Nino

A deterministic numerical model of the coupled evolution of the tropical ocean and atmosphere was used to forecast all El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from 1970 to 1986. More particularly, the model, originally developed for studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropics, successfully predicted the characteristics of the spatial and temporal structure of ENSO observed in the study interval. The model indicated that rainfall moving eastward over the Pacific slackens the surface winds that would otherwise cool the eastern Pacific by drawing up cooler subsurface waters. The oceanic thermocline increases, a poleward flow of westerly flowing warn waters deplets the equatorial warm water reservoir, and sea surface temperatures decline. These ENSO conditions are statistically tractable with the model several months in advance, provided upper ocean layer thermal data are available.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

El Nino

An attempt is made to provide the background for a coupled model of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) with emphasis placed on the oceanography (i.e. on El Nino). Observations of the normal annual cycle in the Pacific and of the evolution of a typical El Nino event are reviewed, and a theory for the oceanography of El Nino is proposed. The influence of SST anomalies on the tropical atmosphere is assessed, and results from a numerical model for the coupled system able to generate El Nino events are presented. Implications for the real ENSO cycle are discussed. In both the model and nature, ENSO has the character of a relaxation oscillation of the coupled system, and its cycle is aperiodic. Results on the predictability of dynamical systems show the impossibility of predicting ahead several events.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Nino events.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Seasonal heat transport in a forced equatorial baroclinic model

Seasonal heat transport is examined in a simple, linear, shallow-water model on the equatorial beta plane. It is found in this model that meridional transport by the seasonally varying western boundary current is of the same magnitude but opposite phase to the seasonally varying interior transport and therefore tends to cancel.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Equatorial oceanography

United States progress in equatorial oceanography is reviewed, focusing on the low frequency response of upper equatorial oceans to forcing by the wind. Variations of thermocline depth, midocean currents, and boundary currents are discussed. The factors which determine sea surface temperature (SST) variability in equatorial oceans are reviewed, and the status of understanding of the most spectacular manifestation of SST variability, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, is discussed. The problem of observing surface winds, regarded as a fundamental factor limiting understanding of the equatorial oceans, is addressed. Finally, an attempt is made to identify those current trends which are expected to bear fruit in the near and distant future.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The effect of islands on low frequency equatorial motions

A complete analytic solution is presented for the influence of equatorial islands on steady low-frequency waves. If the island is small (the meridional extent is much less than the equatorial radius of deformation, R), the waves pass it almost undisturbed, with the mass flux incident on the upstream side flowing around it nearly equally to the north and to the south and continuing on downstream in the lee of the island. For large islands (comparable in extent with R or larger), the principal response is organized as it would be if the island barrier were meridionally infinite. An incident Kelvin wave is largely reflected as long Rossby waves; symmetric long Rossby waves are reflected as equatorial Kelvin waves, while antisymmetric ones stop at the island barrier. In all cases, a boundary current composed of short Rossby waves forms at the eastern side of the island and accomplishes the required meridional redistribution of the zonal mass flux.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The variability of equatorial currents

The temporal variations of upper ocean currents along the equator, specially the equatorial undercurrent are discussed. Many mechanisms were proposed as explanations of the steady state undercurrent including vertical mixing, horizontal mixing, thermohaline effects, and nonlinear effects. All of these theories succeed to some extent in simulating some of the observed features of the undercurrent. To distinguish among these ideas, the time variability of equatorial currents was considered. Observations of surface currents, currents in the thermocline, and surface winds at the equator are shown.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The response of a linear baroclinic equatorial ocean to periodic forcing

An investigation is conducted regarding the periodic response of the linear inviscid shallow water equations in a meridionally unbounded basin to zonal forcings at a single low frequency omega. A general solution in the long wave approximation and on an equatorial beta-plane is obtained by summing the Kelvin mode and the finite sum of Rossby modes whose turning points lie equatorward of the turning latitude at frequency omega. The results of the investigation suggest that even if the low frequency forcing has a simple structure, considerable spatial inhomogeneity in the deep ocean response would have to be expected. On the basis of linear inviscid theory, some conclusions are drawn about the causes of the differences between equatorial thermocline response in the Atlantic and Pacific.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

On the sensitivity of numerical weather prediction to remotely sensed marine surface wind data - A simulation study

The reported investigation has the objective to assess the potential impact on numerical weather prediction (NWP) of remotely sensed surface wind data. Other investigations conducted with similar objectives have not been satisfactory in connection with a use of procedures providing an unrealistic distribution of initial errors. In the current study, care has been taken to duplicate the actual distribution of information in the conventional observing system, thus shifting the emphasis from accuracy of the data to the data coverage. It is pointed out that this is an important consideration in assessing satellite observing systems since experience with sounder data has shown that improvements in forecasts due to satellite-derived information is due less to a general error reduction than to the ability to fill data-sparse regions. The reported study concentrates on the evaluation of the observing system simulation experimental design and on the assessment of the potential of remotely sensed marine surface wind data.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The potential impact of scatterometry on oceanography - A wave forecasting case

A series of observing system simulation experiments have been performed in order to assess the potential impact of marine surface wind data on numerical weather prediction. In addition to conventional data, the experiments simulated the time-continuous assimilation of remotely sensed marine surface wind or temperature sounding data. The wind data were fabricated directly for model grid points intercepted by a Seasat-1 scatterometer swath and were assimilated into the lowest active level (945 mb) of the model using a localized successive correction method. It is shown that Seasat wind data can greatly improve numerical weather forecasts due to better definition of specific features. The case of the QE II storm is examined.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1979

The response of an equatorial ocean to simple wind stress patterns. I - Model formulation and analytic results. II - Numerical results

A time-dependent, primitive equation, beta plane model that is two-dimensional in the horizontal has been developed to model wind-driven equatorial ocean circulation. A simple vertical structure consisting of two layers above the thermocline with the same constant density permits a steady-state undercurrent in the model. An analytical study of the linear dynamics of the model suggests that the addition of inertial effects is needed to simulate the undercurrent properly. Also, both linear and nonlinear dynamics of the model are investigated numerically. Such nonlinear response to wind stress as a strong eastward equatorial undercurrent and an intense eastward 'countercurrent' at three deg N are noted in the numerical results.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Forced baroclinic ocean motions. III - The linear equatorial basin case

The linear response to simple wind stress of an equatorial ocean described by baroclinic shallow water equations is studied. Three types of basin are considered in treating the linear spin-up of the equatorial ocean: a symmetric basin with zonal walls distant from the equator (compared to the equatorial radius of deformation); a symmetric basin with zonal walls near the equator; and an asymmetric basin with one wall near the equator and one distant. The approach to the steady (Sverdrup) solutions is analyzed, with special attention given to the fast planetary response. Numerical treatments of spin-up for various winds in each type of basin are also presented.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Forced baroclinic ocean motions. II - The linear equatorial bounded case

Results obtained in the first part of this paper (1976), which studied forced baroclinic ocean motions in the linear equatorial unbounded case, are extended to the case of an ocean bounded by two meridians. A complete solution for the linear spin-up in response to a switched-on, x-dependent wind stress is obtained in terms of five components: the unbounded nonoscillatory response to the wind stress forcing; the inertia-gravity waves generated when the forcing switches on, together with their reflections; the quasi-geostrophic Rossby modes forming the eastern boundary response and a western boundary layer; and the equatorial Kelvin wave component of the western boundary response. Kelvin waves are generated if the forcings include a zonal wind component that is symmetric about the equator or an antisymmetric meridional wind stress. For non-Kelvin symmetries, spin-up occurs entirely by the effects of Rossby waves emanating from the eastern boundary. The state approaches the steady solution as increasing numbers of these reach an interior point. In Kelvin symmetries, the Rossby waves act to bring the sea surface tilt to the steady value and the spin-up of the tilt proceeds as in non-Kelvin cases.

Cane, M. A.↗