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Carlson, Allan D.

Publications and source records attributed to Carlson, Allan D..

AIACHNE's contribution for Nuclear Energy Agency Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation Subgroup 50

The AIACHNE (AI/ML Informed cAlifornium CHi Nuclear data Experiment) project aims at designing an experiment for the 252 Cf Prompt Fission Neutron Spectrum (PFNS) that explores systematic biases in an experimental database retrieved from the EXFOR databases. To that end, machine learning (ML) methods were applied to pint-point measurement features likely related to bia. From that information, we selected a feature that should be explored by the AIACHNE experiment. Measurement features are metadata encapsulating all pertinent information about the physical measurement and analysis techniques. Examples are, for instance, what neutron and fission detectors were used for the physical metadata, and what background reduction techniques were employed for analysis techniques. Such metadata were retrieved both from EXFOR entries as well as the literature of data sets described in detail in Ref. [2]. The prerequisite for applying machine learning techniques is casting the metadata into a format that can be parsed by the algorithm. This step might seem trivial but requires to find a unique language where metadata that carry the same physics meaning across several experiments must have the same identifier. One example is, for instance, the neutron detector. As seen in Figure 1, the machine learning code identified the use of 6 Li detectors as being related to bias in some datasets of the AIACHNE 252 Cf PFNS experimental database. In fact, here are several experiments that used neutron detectors containing 6Li in the database, for instance for the example below. EXFOR format has a unique keywords describing detectors such as “SCIN” or “GLASD”. One may think that these keywords are already sufficient descriptors for ML to uniquely find an issue. However, “SCIN” (used for [3, 4]) and “GLASD” (used for [5]) fail to inform the algorithm what is the active material in the detector. And, the key common issue leading to bias in 252 Cf related to neutron detectors is not whether it is a glass detector or a scintillator. No, the issue is that 6 Li was within both detector types and that even small mistakes in the detector response functions around approximately 200 keV are amplified by the 6 Li(n,α) resonance there leading to bias in data as highlighted in Fig. 1 and Ref. [1]. Hence, the features describing the neutron detector must call out the active material in the detector, rather than the existing EXFOR detector keyword, that the ML algorithm can find physically meaningful features related to bias. The AIACHNE team used a precursor of the WPEC (Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation) SG(Subgroup)-50 format to store the metadata for the ML analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

AIACHNE's contribution for Nuclear Energy Agency Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation Subgroup 50

The AIACHNE (AI/ML Informed cAlifornium CHi Nuclear data Experiment) project aims at designing an experiment for the 252 Cf Prompt Fission Neutron Spectrum (PFNS) that explores systematic biases in an experimental database retrieved from the EXFOR databases. To that end, machine learning (ML) methods were applied to pint-point measurement features likely related to bias. From that information, we selected a feature that should be explored by the AIACHNE experiment. Measurement features are metadata encapsulating all pertinent information about the physical measurement and analysis techniques. Examples are, for instance, what neutron and fission detectors were used for the physical metadata, and what background reduction techniques were employed for analysis techniques. Such metadata were retrieved both from EXFOR entries as well as the literature of data sets described in detail in Reference 2 (at the end of the article).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties

The covariance committee of CSEWG (Cross Section Evaluation Working Group) established templates of expected measurement uncertainties for neutron-induced total, (n,γ), neutron-induced charged-particle, and (n,xn) reaction cross sections as well as prompt fission neutron spectra, average prompt and total fission neutron multiplicities, and fission yields. Templates provide a list of what uncertainty sources are expected for each measurement type and observable, and suggest typical ranges of these uncertainties and correlations based on a survey of experimental data, associated literature, and feedback from experimenters. Information needed to faithfully include the experimental data in the nuclear-data evaluation process is also provided. These templates could assist (a) experimenters and EXFOR compilers in delivering more complete uncertainties and measurement information relevant for evaluations of new experimental data, and (b) evaluators in achieving a more comprehensive uncertainty quantification for evaluation purposes. This effort might ultimately lead to more realistic evaluated covariances for nuclear-data applications. In this topical issue, we cover the templates coming out of this CSEWG effort–typically, one observable per paper. This paper here prefaces this topical issue by introducing the concept and mathematical framework of templates, discussing potential use cases, and giving an example of how they can be applied (estimating missing experimental uncertainties of 235 U(n,f) average prompt fission neutron multiplicities), and their impact on nuclear-data evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for total neutron cross-section observables

This paper provides a template of expected uncertainties and correlations for measurements of total neutron cross-section observables by transmission. Measurements with time-of-flight and mono-energetic neutron sources are covered. The information required for evaluations in the resonance region and high energy region is detailed, along with the template of uncertainties and correlations that can be used in the absence of other information.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for prompt fission neutron spectra

In this paper, we provide templates of uncertainty sources expected to appear for three measurement types of prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS): (1) shape measurements, (2) clean-ratio shape, that is the monitor PFNS are measured in nearly exactly the same surrounding as the PFNS of interest, and (3) indirect ratios, where the detector efficiency is backed out from PFNS monitor measurements. Information is also listed that is needed to faithfully include PFNS in nuclear data evaluations to guide experimenters on how to best report data and metadata for their measurements. These templates also suggest a typical range of pertinent uncertainty values and their correlations in case realistic uncertainties cannot be estimated from information on the measurement itself. The templates were based on a literature review, information found in EXFOR for 252 Cf, 235, 238 U, and 239 Pu PFNS, and enhanced by expertise from experimenters contributing to these PFNS templates.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for neutron-induced capture and charged-particle production cross section observables

This paper provides a template of expected uncertainties and correlations for measurements of neutron-induced capture and charged-particle production cross sections. Measurements performed in-beam include total absorption spectroscopy, total energy detection, γ -ray spectroscopy, and direct charged-particle detection. Offline measurements include activation analysis and accelerator mass spectrometry. The information needed for proper use of the datasets in resonance region and high energy region evaluations is described, and recommended uncertainties are provided when specific values are not available for a dataset.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for average prompt and total fission neutron multiplicities

In this paper, we provide templates of measurement uncertainty sources expected to appear for average prompt- and total-fission neutron multiplicities, $ \overline\nu_p $ and $ \overline\nu_t $, for the following measurement types: absolute manganese-bath experiments for $ \overline\nu_t $, absolute and ratio liquid-scintillator measurements for $ \overline\nu_p $. These templates also suggest a typical range of these uncertainties and their correlations based on a survey of available experimental data, associated literature, and feedback from experimentalists. In addition, the information needed to faithfully include the associated experimental data into the nuclear-data evaluation process is provided.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Project Update for “Designing Nuclear-data Measurements that Resolve Discrepancies in Existing Data” [Slides]

AIACHNE has made key progress this past year and will contribute to the larger scientific community. We recovered input data for the current 252 Cf(sf) PFNS evaluation that was previously lost. We render a standard to the best of our ability reproducible. We critically reviewed past data as input for ML & new standard evaluation that will impact PFNS of all major actinides. We developed a unique AI/ ML code that highlights which measurement features are related to bias and are working towards open-sourcing it for the community. Features that were identified as related to bias follow physics’ intuition and bring new understanding of exp effects and might help us for other reactions and isotopes. The results highlight that EXFOR is a goldmine of features that could help us understand experiment bias (if they are easy to parse).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Unrecognized Sources of Uncertainties ( USU ) in Experimental Nuclear Data

Evaluated nuclear data uncertainties reported in the literature or archived in data libraries are often perceived as unrealistic, most often because they are thought to be too small. The impact of this issue in applied nuclear science has been discussed widely in recent years. Commonly suggested causes are: poor estimates of specific error components, neglect of uncertainty correlations, and overlooked known error sources. However, instances have been reported where very careful, objective assessments of all known error sources have been made with realistic error magnitudes and correlations provided, yet the resulting evaluated uncertainties still appear to be inconsistent with observed scatter of predicted mean values. These discrepancies might be attributed to significant unrecognized sources of uncertainty ( USU ) that limit the accuracy to which these physical quantities can be determined. The objective of our work reported herein has been to develop qualitative and quantitative procedures for revealing and including USU estimates in nuclear data evaluations involving experimental input data. This paper identifies several specific clues that can be explored by evaluators in identifying the existence of USU . It then describes numerical procedures we have introduced to generate quantitative estimates of USU magnitudes. Key requirements for these procedures to be viable are that sufficient numbers of data points be available, for statistical reasons, and that additional supporting information about the measurements be provided by the experimenters. Several realistic examples are described here to illustrate these procedures and demonstrate their outcomes and limitations. Our work strongly supports the view that USU is an important issue in nuclear data evaluation, with significant consequences for applications, and that this topic warrants further investigation by the nuclear science community.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Applying a Template of Expected Uncertainties to Updating 239 Pu(n,f) Cross-section Covariances in the Neutron Data Standards Database

Templates of uncertainties expected in specific measurement types were recently developed. One aim of these templates is to help evaluators in identifying (1) missing or suspiciously low uncertainties and (2) missing correlations between uncertainties of the same and different experiments, when estimating covariances for experimental data employed in their evaluations. These templates also provide realistic estimates of standard deviations and correlations for a particular uncertainty source and measurement type that can be used by evaluators in situations where they are not supplied by the experimenters. This information allows for a more comprehensive uncertainty analysis across all measurements considered in an evaluation and, thus, more realistic evaluated covariances. Here, in this work, we extend a template that is applicable to uncertainties expected in neutron-induced fission, (n,f), cross-section measurements. It is applied to improving covariances of 239 Pu(n,f) cross-section measurements in the database underlying the Neutron Data Standards evaluations. This particular example was chosen since this evaluation is primarily based on experimental information. Also, some uncertainties of individual 239 Pu(n,f) cross-section experiments in this database were suspected to be underestimated. The evaluated uncertainties obtained after updating the covariances in the database by means of the template indeed do increase compared to their original values. Even more importantly, the evaluated mean values change noticeably. These modified cross sections impact application calculations significantly, as is demonstrated by employing them in simulations of the effective neutron multiplication factor for a few selected critical assemblies. However, this updated evaluated 239 Pu(n,f) cross section should not be interpreted as the final one that should replace values of the current Neutron Data Standards project. Evaluations for the Neutron Data Standards of the 239 Pu(n,f) cross section must be linked to many other observables included in the associated database, most notably to cross sections for 235 U(n,f), but also to those for 10 B(n, α ), 6 Li(n,t), 238 U(n,f), and 238 U(n, γ ), because of included measurements of the 239 Pu(n,f) cross section that appear as ratios to these reactions. Some of these other reactions are correlated to further observables in the database. Hence, updating uncertainties of data sets of any of these observables can potentially impact the 239 Pu(n,f) cross section. Uncertainties for all measurements of these linked physical observables have to be updated before a comprehensive evaluation of the 239 Pu(n,f) cross section and its corresponding uncertainties can be provided.

239Pu Neutron-induced fission cross-section↗