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Carmichael, Joshua Daniel

Publications and source records attributed to Carmichael, Joshua Daniel.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of regional infrasound produced by supersonic sources using a ray-based Mach cone source

The geometry of the Mach cone produced by a supersonic source is analyzed and mapped into initial conditions used in acoustic ray tracing. The resulting source model is combined with spherical geometry ray tracing methods to enable propagation simulations for infrasonic signals produced by bolides, space debris, rockets, aircraft, and other fast-than-sound sources out to typical infrasonic observation distances of hundreds or thousands of kilometers. Idealized linear and parabolic trajectories typical of bolides and rockets, respectively, are used to demonstrate the calculation of regional infrasonic signals produced by such sources and characteristics of the radiated infrasonic waves are found to vary strongly with the geometry of the trajectory and atmospheric structure. Predicted regional infrasonic signals are compared with those observed from a November 2020 bolide that passed over Scandinavia using a combination of institutionally maintained infrasound stations and “citizen scientist” data from the Raspberry Shake data repository.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of regional infrasound produced by supersonic sources using a ray-based Mach cone source

The geometry of the Mach cone produced by a supersonic source is analyzed and mapped into initial conditions used in acoustic ray tracing. The resulting source model is combined with spherical geometry ray tracing methods to enable propagation simulations for infrasonic signals produced by bolides, space debris, rockets, aircraft, and other fast-than-sound sources out to typical infrasonic observation distances of hundreds or thousands of kilometers. Idealized linear and parabolic trajectories typical of bolides and rockets, respectively, are used to demonstrate the calculation of regional infrasonic signals produced by such sources and characteristics of the radiated infrasonic waves are found to vary strongly with the geometry of the trajectory and atmospheric structure. Predicted regional infrasonic signals are compared with those observed from a November 2020 bolide that passed over Scandinavia using a combination of institutionally maintained infrasound stations and “citizen scientist” data from the Raspberry Shake data repository.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Error Modeling for Prompt Yield Estimation [Slides]

Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (MultiPEM) Toolbox provides a capability for post-detonation characterization focusing on yield estimation; Synthesize information from multiple sensor types; Leverage historical databases to inform statistical models; Allows for rapid or comprehensive analysis; Implemented in R code.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Erratum to: Data Fusion to Support Integrated Nuclear Detonation Detection [Slides]

The original document (LA-UR-22-29547) contained minor equation errors that approximate correct equations that couple the multi-sensor, serial system detector thresholds for a seismic Rayleigh wave detector and an acoustic energy detector. Those errors appeared on slides 62-67. This erratum associates the following slides with the erroneous slides. The numbers of the erroneous slides are marked at the upper right in small text in orange. A result of those errors over-predict the performance of the two-sensor serial network, that is, the former document provides an optimistic estimate of system performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transportable absolute yields of underground nuclear explosions. Application to the North Korean nuclear tests

The method developed and presented here improves our nuclear explosion monitoring capability by providing a new independent and transportable method to determine the explosive yields of seismically recorded events associated with foreign weapons development. Here we report new independent absolute yield and depth of burial estimates of the North Korean nuclear tests which are commensurate with previously determined source parameters. The key advantage of this method over other methods which estimate absolute explosive yields is that this method does not require any a priori calibration, and can be immediately applied to any region of interest. This method uses the source information obtained from the spectral ratios of envelopes of measured seismic coda waves to invert for model-derived yield and depth of burial. The only requirements of this method are that the region of interest must contain several (> 3) seismic sources which have been well recorded (SNR > 2) by a set of shared stations. For regions with only a few events (~ 3) and/or extremely band-limited observations for which the depth of burial is unknown, an earthquake with a known magnitude may be required to obtain an accurate and robust yield estimate.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wintertime Brine Discharge at the Surface of a Cold Polar Glacier and the Unexpected Absence of Associated Seismicity

A subglacial groundwater system beneath Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, discharges hypersaline, iron-rich brine episodically at the glacier surface to create Blood Falls. However, the triggering mechanism for these brine release events is not yet understood. Identifying which fracture processes are observed seismically can help us better characterize the hydrological system at Taylor Glacier, and more generally, provide us with a broader understanding of englacial hydrologic activity in cold glaciers. We document wintertime brine discharge using time-lapse photography. Subfreezing air temperatures during the brine discharge indicate that surface melt-induced hydrofracture is an unlikely trigger for brine release. Further, we analyze local seismic data to test a hypothesis that fracturing generates elevated surface wave energy preceding and/or coinciding with brine release events. Our results show no discernible elevated Rayleigh wave activity prior to or during Blood Falls brine release. Instead, we find a pattern of seismic events dominated by a seasonal signal, with more Rayleigh events occurring in the summer than the winter from the Blood Falls source area. We calculate that the volumetric opening of cracks that would generate Rayleigh waves at our detection limits are of similar size to myriad cracks in glacier ice, lake ice, and frozen sediment in the terminus area. We therefore propose that any fracturing coincident with brine release activity likely consists of a series of smaller opening events that are masked by other seismicity in the local environment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Modeled Performance of the ORNL Matched Filter Detector for Seismic Signatures of Multi-Axle Tractor Trailers

The MINOS program seeks methods to passively monitor the transfer of special materials, which are reproducible and quantitatively defensible. To date, we have demonstrated that short-period seismometers deployed near vehicle tracks can detect and monitor signatures of multi-axle tractor trailers impacting small road obstacles as means to detect and identify some transfer activities. In this report, we model the seismic velocity signal output from a tractor-trailer impacting a small obstacle (a template waveform) to parameterize a matched filter that identifies signals with similar shapes buried in noise, and that indicate repeating events (target waveforms). We then use this model to perform thousands of synthetic experiments, in which we apply our detector to identify noisy waveforms output from a similarly modeled vehicle data set; we process all data in the same manner as we process real data collected from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) seismic network. Our experiments, while limited, reveal that the matched filter shows a high discrimination capability, and at very low SNR values (at visibility thresholds). This means that template waveforms can match target waveforms that are sourced by models that share the same vehicle speed (target vehicles), and have a low probability of mis-identification. In particular, a matched filter designed to detect a five-axle tractor-trailer will reliably identify that target vehicle down to an SNR of 11.25 dB, and within ±0.1 km/hr, while successfully screening target vehicles with three axles.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-INT Signature Collection and Exploitation for Security: Improving Discrimination, Analyses, and Passive Tracking Capabilities for Time- and Distance-Varying Signatures in the Seismoacoustic Regime

This project demonstrates the feasibility of a passive tracking capability for ground-based and airborne moving sources using multiple information streams from acoustic and seismic signals. These moving source types are characterized by their variability with time and distance (exemplified but not limited to the familiar doppler shift of a passing vehicle) and the signatures used for detection should have similar characteristics. We have demonstrated that time-varying sensor signatures (TVS) combined with time-stable sensor signatures provide a more complete understanding of moving source behavior. Importantly, we have collected a new, relevant LANL dataset of moving sources (small uncrewed aerial vehicle flights and ground vehicle movement), developed new signatures, and demonstrated the capability to identify, track and forecast the position of these moving sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hypothesis Tests on Rayleigh Wave Radiation Pattern Shapes: A Theoretical Assessment for Source Screening (Independent Review: LANL Source Physics LCP) [Slides]

Background for TRL 0-1 Research: we require a simple regional source discriminant that has a predictive capability and a quantifiable screening performance (probability of correct attribution); Challenge: many local and near-regional source discriminants do not test source mechanism; rather, they test depth. Such empirically validated discriminants are not all theoretically justified; and, Proposal: we test Rayleigh wave radiation patterns for any significant deviation from circular shape as a discriminant.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A method to fuse multiphysics waveforms and improve predictive explosion detection: theory, experiment and performance

Natural and human-made sources of transient energy often emit multiple geophysical signatures that include mechanical and electromagnetic waveforms. We present a constructive method to fuse and evaluate statistics that we derive from such multiphysics waveforms that improves our capability to detect small, near-ground explosions over similar methods that consume single signature waveforms. Our method advances Fisher's Combined Probability Test (Fisher's Method) to operate under both hypotheses of a binary test on noisy data and provide researchers with the density functions required to forecast the ability of Fisher's Method to screen fused explosion signatures from noise. We apply this method against 12 d, multisignature explosion and noise records to show (1) that a fused multiphysics waveform statistic that combines radio, acoustic and seismic waveform data can identify explosions roughly 0.8 magnitude units lower than an acoustic emission, STA/LTA detector for the same detection probability and (2) that we can quantitatively predict how this fused, multiphysics statistic performs with Fisher's Method. Our work thereby offers a baseline method for predictive waveform fusion that supports multiphenomenological explosion monitoring (multiPEM) and is applicable to any binary testing problem in observational geophysics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geodetic Measurements of Slow-Slip Events Southeast of Parkfield, CA

Tremor and low-frequency earthquakes are presumed to be indicative of surrounding slow, aseismic slip that is often below geodetic detection thresholds. This study uses data from borehole seismometers and long-baseline laser strainmeters to observe both the seismic and geodetic signatures of episodic tremor and slip on the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, CA. We note the observed occurrence rates of both the tremors and co-located families of low-frequency earthquakes are not steady but instead exhibit quasiperiodic bursts of increased activity.We show that these periods of elevated seismic activity correlate with statistically significant stacked strain signals consisting of 44 slow-slip events. Modeled individual slow-slip events and their total summed moment, which are constrained by seismic signals and stacked strain, respectively, indicate that the individual moment magnitudes of these events range from $M_w$ 4.6–5.2.We find that the measured geodetic signal likely precedes the seismic signal by several hours, consistent with the aseismic slip preceding and driving the observed seismic tremor activity.We confirm that strike-slip faults, in addition to subduction zones, are capable of producing episodic tremor and slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗