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Carvalhais, Nuno

Publications and source records attributed to Carvalhais, Nuno.

Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage

Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain, which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change. It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss. Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes. Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved. Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Abstract Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite‐derived vegetation index data and supporting tree‐ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi‐arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region‐ and biome‐dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non‐dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate‐specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The effect of relative humidity on eddy covariance latent heat flux measurements and its implication for partitioning into transpiration and evaporation

While the eddy covariance (EC) technique is a well-established method for measuring water fluxes (i.e., evaporation or 'evapotranspiration’, ET), the measurement is susceptible to many uncertainties. One such issue is the potential underestimation of ET when relative humidity (RH) is high (> 70%), due to low-pass filtering with some EC systems. Yet, this underestimation for different types of EC systems (e.g. open-path or closed-path sensors) has not been characterized for synthesis datasets such as the widely used FLUXNET2015 dataset. Here, we assess the RH-associated underestimation of latent heat fluxes (LE, or ET) from different EC systems for 163 sites in the FLUXNET2015 dataset. We found that the LE underestimation is most apparent during hours when RH is higher than 70%, predominantly observed at sites using closed-path EC systems, but the extent of the LE underestimation is highly site-specific. We then propose a machine learning based method to correct for this underestimation, and compare it to two energy balance closure based LE correction approaches (Bowen ratio correction, BRC, and attributing all errors to LE). Our correction increases LE by 189% for closed-path sites at high RH (> 90%), while BRC increases LE by around 30% for all RH conditions. Additionally, we assess the influence of these corrections on ET-based transpiration (T) estimates using two different ET partitioning methods. Results show opposite responses (increasing vs. slightly decreasing T-to-ET ratios, T/ET) between the two methods when comparing T based on corrected and uncorrected LE. Overall, our results demonstrate the existence of a high RH bias in water fluxes in the FLUXNET2015 dataset and suggest that this bias is a pronounced source of uncertainty in ET measurements to be considered when estimating ecosystem T/ET and WUE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environment-sensitivity functions for gross primary productivity in light use efficiency models

The sensitivity of photosynthesis to environmental changes is essential for understanding carbon cycle responses to global climate change and for the development of modeling approaches that explains its spatial and temporal variability. We collected a large variety of published sensitivity functions of gross primary productivity (GPP) to different forcing variables to assess the response of GPP to environmental factors. These include the responses of GPP to temperature; vapor pressure deficit, some of which include the response to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations; soil water availability (W); light intensity; and cloudiness. These functions were combined in a full factorial light use efficiency (LUE) model structure, leading to a collection of 5600 distinct LUE models. Each model was optimized against daily GPP and evapotranspiration fluxes from 196 FLUXNET sites and ranked across sites based on a bootstrap approach. The GPP sensitivity to each environmental factor, including CO 2 fertilization, was shown to be significant, and that none of the previously published model structures performed as well as the best model selected. From daily and weekly to monthly scales, the best model's median Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency across sites was 0.73, 0.79 and 0.82, respectively, but poorer at annual scales (0.23), emphasizing the common limitation of current models in describing the interannual variability of GPP. Although the best global model did not match the local best model at each site, the selection was robust across ecosystem types. The contribution of light saturation and cloudiness to GPP was observed across all biomes (from 23% to 43%). Temperature and W dominates GPP and LUE but responses of GPP to temperature and W are lagged in cold and arid ecosystems, respectively. The findings of this study provide a foundation towards more robust LUE-based estimates of global GPP and may provide a benchmark for other empirical GPP products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function

The leaf economics spectrum and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species. Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability. Here we derive a set of ecosystem functions from a dataset of surface gas exchange measurements across major terrestrial biomes. We find that most of the variability within ecosystem functions (71.8%) is captured by three key axes. The first axis reflects maximum ecosystem productivity and is mostly explained by vegetation structure. The second axis reflects ecosystem water-use strategies and is jointly explained by variation in vegetation height and climate. The third axis, which represents ecosystem carbon-use efficiency, features a gradient related to aridity, and is explained primarily by variation in vegetation structure. We show that two state-of-the-art land surface models reproduce the first and most important axis of ecosystem functions. However, the models tend to simulate more strongly correlated functions than those observed, which limits their ability to accurately predict the full range of responses to environmental changes in carbon, water and energy cycling in terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Automated Approach to Map the History of Forest Disturbance from Insect Mortality and Harvest with Landsat Time-Series Data

Forests contain a majority of the aboveground carbon (C) found in ecosystems, and understanding biomass lost from disturbance is essential to improve our C-cycle knowledge. Our study region in the Wisconsin and Minnesota Laurentian Forest had a strong decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2007, observed with the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). To understand the potential role of disturbances in the terrestrial C-cycle, we developed an algorithm to map forest disturbances from either harvest or insect outbreak for Landsat time-series stacks. We merged two image analysis approaches into one algorithm to monitor forest change that included: (1) multiple disturbance index thresholds to capture clear-cut harvest; and (2) a spectral trajectory-based image analysis with multiple confidence interval thresholds to map insect outbreak. We produced 20 maps and evaluated classification accuracy with air-photos and insect air-survey data to understand the performance of our algorithm. We achieved overall accuracies ranging from 65% to 75%, with an average accuracy of 72%. The producer's and user's accuracy ranged from a maximum of 32% to 70% for insect disturbance, 60% to 76% for insect mortality and 82% to 88% for harvested forest, which was the dominant disturbance agent. Forest disturbances accounted for 22% of total forested area (7349 km2). Our algorithm provides a basic approach to map disturbance history where large impacts to forest stands have occurred and highlights the limited spectral sensitivity of Landsat time-series to outbreaks of defoliating insects. We found that only harvest and insect mortality events can be mapped with adequate accuracy with a non-annual Landsat time-series. This limited our land cover understanding of NDVI decline drivers. We demonstrate that to capture more subtle disturbances with spectral trajectories, future observations must be temporally dense to distinguish between type and frequency in heterogeneous landscapes.

Forest↗

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Inter-Annual↗