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Case, Jonathan L.

Publications and source records attributed to Case, Jonathan L..

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Understanding Changes in Modeled Land Surface Characteristics Prior to Lightning-Initiated Holdover Fire Breakout

Lightning initiated wildfires are only 16% of the total number of wildfires within the United States, but account for 56% of the acreage burned. One of the challenges with lightning-initiated wildfires is their ability to "holdover" which means smolder for up to 2+ weeks before breaking out into a full fledged fire. This work helps characterize the percentage of holdover events due to lightning, and helps quantify changes in the land surface characteristics to help understand trends in soil moisture and vegetation stress that potentially contribute to the fire breaking out into a full wildfire.

wildfire↗
NASA NTRS2017

Short-Term Forecasts Using NU-WRF for the Winter Olympics 2018

The NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) will be included for testing and evaluation in the forecast demonstration project (FDP) of the International Collaborative Experiment −PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic (ICE-POP) Winter Games. An international array of radar and supporting ground based observations together with various forecast and now-cast models will be operational during ICE-POP. In conjunction with personnel from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is developing benchmark simulations for a real-time NU-WRF configuration to run during the FDP. ICE-POP observational datasets will be used to validate model simulations and investigate improved model physics and performance for prediction of snow events during the research phase (RDP) of the project The NU-WRF model simulations will also support NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground-validation physical and direct validation activities in relation to verifying, testing and improving satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over complex terrain.

forecasting↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Assessment of Land Surface and Lightning Characteristics Associated with Lightning-Initiated Wildfires

Can we use modeled information of the land surface and characteristics of lightning beyond flash occurrence to increase the identification and prediction of wildfires? Combine observed cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes with real-time land surface model output, and Compare data with areas where lightning did not start a wildfire to determine what land surface conditions and lightning characteristics were responsible for causing wildfires. Statistical differences between suspected fire-starters and non-fire-starters were peak-current dependent 0-10 cm Volumetric and Relative Soil Moisture comparisons were statistically dependent to at least the p = 0.05 independence level for both polarity flash types Suspected fire-starters typically occurred in areas of lower soil moisture than non-fire-starters. GVF value comparisons were only found to be statistically dependent for -CG flashes. However, random sampling of the -CG non-fire starter dataset revealed that this relationship may not always hold.

wildfire↗
NASA NTRS2016

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

modeling↗
NASA NTRS2016

SMAP Data Assimilation at NASA SPoRT

The NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center maintains a near-real- time run of the Noah Land Surface Model within the Land Information System (LIS) at 3-km resolution. Soil moisture products from this model are used by several NOAA/National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices for flood and drought situational awareness. We have implemented assimilation of soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active/ Passive (SMAP) satellites, and are now evaluating the SMAP assimilation. The SMAP-enhanced LIS product is planned for public release by October 2016.

soil mositure↗
NASA NTRS2016

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at ~3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, using the product generated by NOAA/NESDIS. Model verification capabilities are also being transitioned to KMD using NCAR's Model *Corresponding author address: Jonathan Case, ENSCO, Inc., 320 Sparkman Dr., Room 3008, Huntsville, AL, 35805. Email: Jonathan.Case-1@nasa.gov Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) software in conjunction with a SPoRT-developed scripting package, in order to quantify and compare errors in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation in the experimental WRF model simulations. This extended abstract and accompanying presentation summarizes the efforts and training done to date to support this unique regional modeling initiative at KMD. To honor the memory of Dr. Peter J. Lamb and his extensive efforts in bolstering weather and climate science and capacity-building in Africa, we offer this contribution to the special Peter J. Lamb symposium. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows. The collaborating international organizations involved in the project are presented in Section 2. Background information on the unique land surface input datasets is presented in Section 3. The hands-on training sessions from March 2014 and June 2015 are described in Section 4. Sample experimental WRF output and verification from the June 2015 training are given in Section 5. A summary is given in Section 6, followed by Acknowledgements and References.

land surface modeling↗
NASA NTRS2015

SMOS Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System: Impact on LSM Initialization and NWP Forecasts

Land surface models are important components of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, partitioning incoming energy into latent and sensitive heat fluxes that affect boundary layer growth and destabilization. During warm-season months, diurnal heating and convective initiation depend strongly on evapotranspiration and available boundary layer moisture, which are substantially affected by soil moisture content. Therefore, to properly simulate warm-season processes in NWP models, an accurate initialization of the land surface state is important for accurately depicting the exchange of heat and moisture between the surface and boundary layer. In this study, soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite radiometer are assimilated into the Noah Land Surface Model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter embedded within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) software framework. The output from LIS-Noah is subsequently used to initialize runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model. The impact of assimilating SMOS retrievals is assessed by initializing the WRF model with LIS-Noah output obtained with and without SMOS data assimilation. The southeastern United States is used as the domain for a preliminary case study. During the summer months, there is extensive irrigation in the lower Mississippi Valley for rice and other crops. The irrigation is not represented in the meteorological forcing used to drive the LIS-Noah integration, but the irrigated areas show up clearly in the SMOS soil moisture retrievals, resulting in a case with a large difference in initial soil moisture conditions. The impact of SMOS data assimilation on both Noah soil moisture fields and on short-term (0-48 hour) WRF weather forecasts will be presented.

Blankenship, Clay↗
NASA NTRS2015

4.4 Development of a 30-Year Soil Moisture Climatology for Situational Awareness and Public Health Applications

This paper provided a brief background on the work being done at NASA SPoRT and the CDC to create a soil moisture climatology over the CONUS at high spatial resolution, and to provide a valuable source of soil moisture information to the CDC for monitoring conditions that could favor the development of Valley Fever. The soil moisture climatology has multi-faceted applications for both the NOAA/NWS situational awareness in the areas of drought and flooding, and for the Public Health community. SPoRT plans to increase its interaction with the drought monitoring and Public Health communities by enhancing this testbed soil moisture anomaly product. This soil moisture climatology run will also serve as a foundation for upgrading the real-time (currently southeastern CONUS) SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain based on LIS version 7 and incorporating real-time GVF data from the Suomi-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (Vargas et al. 2013) into LIS-Noah. The upgraded SPoRT-LIS run will serve as a testbed proof-of-concept of a higher-resolution NLDAS-2 modeling member. The climatology run will be extended to near real-time using the NLDAS-2 meteorological forcing from 2011 to present. The fixed 1981-2010 climatology shall provide the soil moisture "normals" for the production of real-time soil moisture anomalies. SPoRT also envisions a web-mapping type of service in which an end-user could put in a request for either an historical or real-time soil moisture anomaly graph for a specified county (as exemplified by Figure 2) and/or for local and regional maps of soil moisture proxy percentiles. Finally, SPoRT seeks to assimilate satellite soil moisture data from the current Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS; Blankenship et al. 2014) and the recently-launched NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP; Entekhabi et al. 2010) missions, using the EnKF capability within LIS. The 9-km combined active radar and passive microwave retrieval product from SMAP (Das et al. 2011) has the potential to provide valuable information about the near-surface soil moisture state for improving land surface modeling output.

land surface modeling↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application of Suomi-NPP Green Vegetation Fraction and NUCAPS for Improving Regional Numerical Weather Prediction

The NASA SPoRT Center is working to incorporate Suomi‐NPP products into its research and transition activities to improve regional numerical weather prediction (NWP). Specifically, SPoRT seeks to utilize two data products from NOAA/NESDIS: (1) daily global VIIRS green vegetation fraction (GVF), and (2) NOAA Unique CrIS and ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture retrieved profiles. The goal of (1) is to improve the representation of vegetation in the Noah land surface model (LSM) over existing climatological GVF datasets in order to improve the land‐atmosphere energy exchanges in NWP models and produce better temperature, moisture, and precipitation forecasts. The goal of (2) is to assimilate NUCAPS retrieved profiles into the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system to assess the impact on a summer pre‐frontal convection case. Most regional NWP applications make use of a monthly GVF climatology for use in the Noah LSM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GVF partitions incoming energy into direct surface heating/evaporation over bare soil versus evapotranspiration processes over vegetated surfaces. Misrepresentations of the fractional coverage of vegetation during anomalous weather/climate regimes (e.g., early/late bloom or freeze; drought) can lead to poor NWP model results when land‐atmosphere feedback is important. SPoRT has been producing a daily MODIS GVF product based on the University of Wisconsin Direct Broadcast swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). While positive impacts have been demonstrated in the WRF model for some cases, the reflectances composing these NDVI do not correct for atmospheric aerosols nor satellite view angle, resulting in temporal noisiness at certain locations (especially heavy vegetation). The method behind the NESDIS VIIRS GVF is expected to alleviate the issues seen in the MODIS GVF real‐time product, thereby offering a higher‐quality dataset for modeling applications. SPoRT is evaluating the VIIRS GVF data against the MODIS real‐time and climatology GVF in both WRF and the NASA Land Information System. SPoRT has a history of assimilating hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles

Numerical Weather Prediction↗