Search NASA⌕ Search

Engineering topics

Case, Jonathan

Publications and source records attributed to Case, Jonathan.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) seeks to improve short-term, regional weather forecasts using unique NASA products and capabilities SPoRT has developed a unique, real-time configuration of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)WRF (ARW) that integrates all SPoRT modeling research data: (1) 2-km SPoRT Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Composite, (2) 3-km LIS with 1-km Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVFs) (3) 45-km AIRS retrieved profiles. Transitioned this real-time forecast to NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) as deterministic model at Experimental Forecast Program (EFP). Feedback from forecasters/participants and internal evaluation of SPoRT-WRF shows a cool, dry bias that appears to suppress convection likely related to methodology for assimilation of AIRS profiles Version 2 of the SPoRT-WRF will premier at the 2012 EFP and include NASA physics, cycling data assimilation methodology, better coverage of precipitation forcing, and new GVFs

Zavodsky, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2012

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting entities, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT transitions real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is applying convection-allowing numerical models to predict mesoscale convective weather. In order to address this specific forecast challenge, SPoRT produces real-time mesoscale model forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that includes unique NASA products and capabilities. Currently, the SPoRT configuration of the WRF model (SPoRT-WRF) incorporates the 4-km Land Information System (LIS) land surface data, 1-km SPoRT sea surface temperature analysis and 1-km Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) analysis, and retrieved thermodynamic profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The LIS, SST, and GVF data are all integrated into the SPoRT-WRF through adjustments to the initial and boundary conditions, and the AIRS data are assimilated into a 9-hour SPoRT WRF forecast each day at 0900 UTC. This study dissects the overall impact of the NASA datasets and the individual surface and atmospheric component datasets on daily mesoscale forecasts. A case study covering the super tornado outbreak across the Ce ntral and Southeastern United States during 25-27 April 2011 is examined. Three different forecasts are analyzed including the SPoRT-WRF (NASA surface and atmospheric data), the SPoRT WRF without AIRS (NASA surface data only), and the operational National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF (control with no NASA data). The forecasts are compared qualitatively by examining simulated versus observed radar reflectivity. Differences between the simulated reflectivity are further investigated using convective parameters along with model soundings to determine the impacts of the various NASA datasets. Additionally, quantitative evaluation of select meteorological parameters is performed using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools model verification package to compare forecasts to in situ surface and upper air observations.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integrated Modeling of Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation and Land Processes at Satellite-Resolved Scales

In this talk, I will present recent results from a project led at NASA/GSFC, in collaboration with NASA/MSFC and JHU, focused on the development and application of an observation-driven integrated modeling system that represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes at satellite-resolved scales. The project, known as the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF), is funded by NASA's Modeling and Analysis Program, and leverages prior investments from the Air Force Weather Agency and NASA's Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO). We define "satellite-resolved" scales as being within a typical mesoscale atmospheric modeling grid (roughly 1-25 km), although this work is designed to bridge the continuum between local (microscale), regional (mesoscale) and global (synoptic) processes. NU-WRF is a superset of the standard NCAR Advanced Research WRF model, achieved by fully integrating the GSFC Land Information System (LIS, already coupled to WRF), the WRF/Chem enabled version of the Goddard Chemistry Aerosols Radiation Transport (GOCART) model, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulation Unit (SDSU), and boundary/initial condition preprocessors for MERRA and GEOS-5 into a single software release (with source code available by agreement with NASA/GSFC). I will show examples where the full coupling between aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes is critical for predicting local, regional, and global water and energy cycles, including some high-impact phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, mesoscale convective systems, droughts, and monsoons.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗
NASA NTRS2011

Forecasting Lake-Effect Precipitation in the Great Lakes Region Using NASA Enhanced-Satellite Data

Lake-effect precipitation is common in the Great Lakes region, particularly during the late fall and winter. The synoptic processes of lake-effect precipitation are well understood by operational forecasters, but individual forecast events still present a challenge. Locally run, high resolution models can assist the forecaster in identifying the onset and duration of precipitation, but model results are sensitive to initial conditions, particularly the assumed surface temperature of the Great Lakes. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has created a Great Lakes Surface Temperature (GLST) composite, which uses infrared estimates of water temperatures obtained from the MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites, other coarser resolution infrared data when MODIS is not available, and ice cover maps produced by the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab (GLERL). This product has been implemented into the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS), used within forecast offices to run local, high resolution forecasts. The sensitivity of the model forecast to the GLST product was analyzed with a case study of the Lake Effect Storm Echinacea, which produced 10 to 12 inches of snowfall downwind of Lake Erie, and 8 to 18 inches downwind of Lake Ontario from 27-29 January 2010. This research compares a forecast using the default Great Lakes surface temperatures from the Real Time Global sea surface temperature (RTG SST), in the WRF-EMS model to the enhanced NASA SPoRT GLST product to study forecast impacts. Results from this case study show that the SPoRT GLST contained less ice cover over Lake Erie and generally cooler water temperatures over Lakes Erie and Ontario. Latent and sensible heat fluxes over Lake Ontario were decreased in the GLST product. The GLST product decreased the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), which can be correlated to the decrease in temperatures and heat fluxes. A slight increase in precipitation coverage was noted over Lake Erie due to a decrease in ice cover. Both the RTG SST and the GLST products predicted the precipitation south of the actual location of precipitation. This single case study is the first part of an examination to determine how MODIS data can be applied to improve model forecasts in the Great Lakes region.

Cipullo, Michelle↗
NASA NTRS2011

Forecasting Lake-Effect Snow in the Great Lakes Using NASA Satllite Data

This slide presentation reviews the forecast of the lake effect snow in the Great Lakes region using models and infrared estimates of Great Lake Surface Temperatures (GLSTs) from the MModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on Terra and Aqua satellites, and other satellite data. This study analyzes Lake Erie and Lake Ontario which produce storm total snowfall ranged from 8-18 inches off of Lake Ontario and 10-12 inches off of Lake Erie for the areas downwind.

Cipullo, Michelle↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Summer Thunderstorms in Central Alabama Using the NASA Land Information System

Forecasters have difficulty predicting "random" afternoon thunderstorms during the summer months. Differences in soil characteristics could be a contributing factor for storms. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) may assist forecasters in predicting summer convection by identifying boundaries in land characteristics. This project identified case dates during the summer of 2009 by analyzing synoptic weather maps, radar, and satellite data to look for weak atmospheric forcing and disorganized convective development. Boundaries in land characteristics that may have lead to convective initiation in central Alabama were then identified using LIS.

James, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2008

Simulation of the Impact of New Air-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

The H'Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRad is being designed to enhance the real-time airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRad will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approx. 3 x the aircraft altitude). The instrument is described in a paper presented to the Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Symposium. The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a numerical model from the University of Miami and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRad instrument on H'Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future tame the HIRad instrument is implemented.

Miller, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to Initialize WRF in the NM'S Environmental Modeling System

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the next generation community mesoscale model designed to enhance collaboration between the research and operational sectors. The NM'S as a whole has begun a transition toward WRF as the mesoscale model of choice to use as a tool in making local forecasts. Currently, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are running the Advanced Regional Prediction System (AIRPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) every 15 minutes over the Florida peninsula to produce high-resolution diagnostics supporting their daily operations. In addition, the NWS MLB and SMG have used ADAS to provide initial conditions for short-range forecasts from the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Both NM'S MLB and SMG have derived great benefit from the maturity of ADAS, and would like to use ADAS for providing initial conditions to WRF. In order to assist in this WRF transition effort, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to configure and implement an operational version of WRF that uses output from ADAS for the model initial conditions. Both agencies asked the AMU to develop a framework that allows the ADAS initial conditions to be incorporated into the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Developed by the NM'S Science Operations Officer (S00) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC), the EMS is a complete, full physics, NWP package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) into a single end-to-end forecasting system. The EMS performs nearly all pre- and postprocessing and can be run automatically to obtain external grid data for WRF boundary conditions, run the model, and convert the data into a format that can be readily viewed within the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. The EMS has also incorporated the WRF Standard Initialization (SI) graphical user interface (GUT), which allows the user to set up the domain, dynamical core, resolution, etc., with ease. In addition to the SI GUT, the EMS contains a number of configuration files with extensive documentation to help the user select the appropriate input parameters for model physics schemes, integration timesteps, etc. Therefore, because of its streamlined capability, it is quite advantageous to configure ADAS to provide initial condition data to the EMS software. One of the biggest potential benefits of configuring ADAS for ingest into the EMS is that the analyses could be used to initialize either the ARW or NMM. Currently, the ARPS/ADAS software has a conversion routine only for the ARW dynamical core. However, since the NIvIM runs about 2.5 times faster than the ARW, it is quite advantageous to be able to run an ADAS/NMM configuration operationally due to the increased efficiency.

Case, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2006

High-Resolution Analysis Products to Support Severe Weather and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Threat Assessments over Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) located at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) implemented an operational configuration of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), as well as the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Operational, high-resolution ADAS analyses have been produced from this configuration at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) over the past several years. Since that time, ADAS fields have become an integral part of forecast operations at both NWS MLB and SMG. To continue providing additional utility, the AMU has been tasked to implement visualization products to assess the potential for supercell thunderstorms and significant tornadoes, and to improve assessments of short-term cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning potential. This paper and presentation focuses on the visualization products developed by the AMU for the operational high-resolution ADAS and AR.PS at the NWS MLB and SMG. The two severe weather threat graphics implemented within ADAS/ARPS are the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) and Significant Tornado Parameter (SIP). The SCP was designed to identify areas with supercell thunderstorm potential through a combination of several instability and shear parameters. The SIP was designed to identify areas that favor supercells producing significant tornadoes (F2 or greater intensity) versus non-tornadic supercells. Both indices were developed by the NOAAINWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and were normalized by key threshold values based on previous studies. The indices apply only to discrete storms, not other convective modes. In a post-analysis mode, the AMU calculated SCP and SIP for graphical output using an ADAS configuration similar to the operational set-ups at NWS MLB and SMG. Graphical images from ADAS were generated every 15 minutes for 13 August 2004, the day that Hurricane Charley approached and made landfall on the Florida peninsula. Several tornadoes struck the interior of the Florida peninsula in advance of Hurricane Charley's landfall during the daylight hours of 13 August. Since SPC had previously examined this case using SCP and SIP graphics generated from output of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model, this day served as a good benchmark to compare and validate the high-resolution ADAS graphics against the smoother RUC analyses, which serves as background fields to the ADAS analyses. The ADAS-generated SCP and STP graphics have been integrated into the suite of products examined operationally by NWS MLB forecasters and are used to provide additional guidance for assessment of the near-storm environment during convective situations.

Case, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2006

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

Develop climatologies of gridded CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurrence for the Melbourne, FL National Weather Service (NWS MLB) county warning area. These grids are used to create a first-guess field for the lightning threat index map that is available on the NWS MLB NASA KSCIKT website. Forecasters previously created this map from scratch. Having the climatologies as a background field will increase consistency between forecasters and decrease their workload. Delivered all files containing the lightning climatologies, the data, and the code used to create the climatologies to NWS MLB. Completed and distributed a final memorandum describing how the climatologies were created. All the files were installed on the NWS MLB computer system, and then the code was compiled and tested to ensure that it worked properly on their operating system. The climatologies and their descriptions are posted on the NWS MLB website. Forecasting Low-Level Convergent Bands Under Southeast Flow Provide guidance to operational personnel that will help improve their forecasts of cloud bands under large-scale southeast flow. When these bands occur, they can lead to cloud, rain, and thunderstorm occurrences that adversely affect launch, landing, and ground operations at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (KSC/CCAFS). Completed the first draft of the final report. The conclusions from this task indicated low-level wind speed and direction, low-level high pressure ridge position, east coast sea breeze front activity and upper-level jet streak position have the greatest influence on convergent band formation and movement during southeasterly flow.

Bauman, William↗
NASA NTRS2005

Contour Error Map Algorithm

The contour error map (CEM) algorithm and the software that implements the algorithm are means of quantifying correlations between sets of time-varying data that are binarized and registered on spatial grids. The present version of the software is intended for use in evaluating numerical weather forecasts against observational sea-breeze data. In cases in which observational data come from off-grid stations, it is necessary to preprocess the observational data to transform them into gridded data. First, the wind direction is gridded and binarized so that D(i,j;n) is the input to CEM based on forecast data and d(i,j;n) is the input to CEM based on gridded observational data. Here, i and j are spatial indices representing 1.25-km intervals along the west-to-east and south-to-north directions, respectively; and n is a time index representing 5-minute intervals. A binary value of D or d = 0 corresponds to an offshore wind, whereas a value of D or d = 1 corresponds to an onshore wind. CEM includes two notable subalgorithms: One identifies and verifies sea-breeze boundaries; the other, which can be invoked optionally, performs an image-erosion function for the purpose of attempting to eliminate river-breeze contributions in the wind fields.

Merceret, Francis↗
NASA NTRS2005

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report. First Quarter FY-05

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2005 (October - December 2005). Tasks reviewed include: (1) Objective Lightning Probability Forecast: Phase I, (2) Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid, (3) Hail Index, (4) Stable Low Cloud Evaluation, (5) Shuttle Ascent Camera Cloud Obstruction Forecast, (6) Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) and Legacy Wind Sensor Evaluation, (7) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Optimization and Training Extension, and (8) User Control Interface for ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS) Data Ingest

Bauman, William↗
NASA NTRS2004

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Fourth Quarter FY-04

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (A MU) activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2004 (July -Sept 2004). Tasks covered are: (1) Objective Lightning Probability Forecast: Phase I, (2) Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid, (3) Hail Index, (4) Shuttle Ascent Camera Cloud Obstruction Forecast, (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Optimization and Training Extension and (5) User Control Interface for ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS) Data Ingest.

Bauman, William↗
NASA NTRS2004

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2004 (April - June 2004). A detailed project schedule is included in the Appendix.

Bauman, William↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) evaluated the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) contained within the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS). ERDAS provides emergency response guidance for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center operations in the event of an accidental hazardous material release or aborted vehicle launch. The RAMS prognostic data are available to ERDAS for display and are used to initialize the 45th Space Wing/Range Safety dispersion model. Thus, the accuracy of the dispersion predictions is dependent upon the accuracy of RAMS forecasts. The RAMS evaluation consisted of an objective and subjective component for the 1999 and 2000 Florida warm seasons, and the 1999-2000 cool season. In the objective evaluation, the AMU generated model error statistics at surface and upper-level observational sites, compared RAMS errors to a coarser RAMS grid configuration, and benchmarked RAMS against the nationally-used Eta model. In the subjective evaluation, the AMU compared forecast cold fronts, low-level temperature inversions, and precipitation to observations during the 1999-2000 cool season, verified the development of the RAMS forecast east coast sea breeze during both warm seasons, and examined the RAMS daily thunderstorm initiation and precipitation patterns during the 2000 warm season. This report summarizes the objective and subjective verification for all three seasons.

Case, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System

The Applied Meteorology Unit is conducting an evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) contained within the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS). ERDAS provides emergency response guidance for operations at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and the Kennedy Space Center in the event of an accidental hazardous material release or aborted vehicle launch. The prognostic data from RAMS is available to ERDAS for display and is used to initialize the 45th Range Safety (45 SW/SE) dispersion model. Thus, the accuracy of the 45 SW/SE dispersion model is dependent upon the accuracy of RAMS forecasts. The RAMS evaluation task consists of an objective and subjective component for the Florida warm and cool seasons of 1999-2000. The objective evaluation includes gridded and point error statistics at surface and upper-level observational sites, a comparison of the model errors to a coarser grid configuration of RAMS, and a benchmark of RAMS against the widely accepted Eta model. The warm-season subjective evaluation involves a verification of the onset and movement of the Florida east coast sea breeze and RAMS forecast precipitation. This interim report provides a summary of the RAMS objective and subjective evaluation for the 1999 Florida warm season only.

Case, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of a Real-Time Local Data Integration System over East-Central Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) simulated a real-time configuration of a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) using data from 15-28 February 1999. The objectives were to assess the utility of a simulated real-time LDIS, evaluate and extrapolate system performance to identify the hardware necessary to run a real-time LDIS, and determine the sensitivities of LDIS. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate analysis products that enhance short-range (less than 6 h) weather forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and Melbourne National Weather Service operational requirements. The simulation used the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) software on an IBM RS/6000 workstation with a 67-MHz processor. This configuration ran in real-time, but not sufficiently fast for operational requirements. Thus, the AMU recommends a workstation with a 200-MHz processor and 512 megabytes of memory to run the AMU's configuration of LDIS in real-time. This report presents results from two case studies and several data sensitivity experiments. ADAS demonstrates utility through its ability to depict high-resolution cloud and wind features in a variety of weather situations. The sensitivity experiments illustrate the influence of disparate data on the resulting ADAS analyses.

Case, Jonathan↗