Geomagnetic secular variation forecast using the NASA GEMS ensemble Kalman filter: A candidate SV model for IGRF-13
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Andrew Tangborn↗
Engineering topics
Ce Yi
Publications and source records attributed to Ce Yi.
Geomagnetic Secular Variation Forecast using the NASA GEMS Ensemble Kalman filter: A Candidate SV Model for IGRF‑13
We have produced a 5-year mean secular variation (SV ) of the geomagnetic field for the period 2020–2025. We use the NASA Geomagnetic Ensemble Modeling System (GEMS), which consists of the NASA Goddard geodynamo model and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with 400 ensemble members. Geomagnetic field models are used as observations for the assimilation, including gufm1 (1590–1960), CM4 (1961–2000) and CM6 (2001–2019). The forecast involves a bias correction scheme that assumes that the model bias changes on timescales much longer than the forecast period, so that they can be removed by successive forecast series. The algorithm was validated on the time period 2010-2015 by comparing with CM6 before being applied to the 2020–2025 time period. This forecast has been sub-mitted as a candidate predictive model of IGRF-13 for the period 2020–2025.
Andrew Tangborn↗
Operational and Archive Data Records: Surface Elevation Measurements of Lakes, Wetlands, and Rivers for Resources and Hazards
A NASA/USDA funded program offers satellite-derived products for lakes, reservoirs, river reaches, and wetland zones. These are currently being derived from the 10-day and monthly-resolution radar altimeter series. However, observational parameters from the laser based ICESat-2 mission, and the enhanced SWOT KaRIn instrument will also be integrated to meet various end user requirements. The resulting measurements will ultimately be a combination of surface water level and slope, surface water extent, water storage and basin bathymetry, plus a suite of Status Indicators which highlight deviations from long-term and seasonal averages. The main stakeholders are the USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service, the US Geological Survey, USACE/NGA, and various Wetland-related organizations. Applications centre on water and energy resources and fish-catch potential, and on natural hazards (floods and droughts). There is a demand for a global monitoring service, but primary focus is on regions where gauge measurement access is restricted or delayed, or where gauge deployment is hazardous. Ongoing surface acquisition checks and feedback to CNES focusses on the success or failure of the on-board DEM’s on a case-by-case basis. Multiple projects are also underway to improve the surface elevations measurements and the along track resolution (minimum water body width) via exploration of the high resolution (Doppler) Range estimates, the FF-SAR technique, and the high- resolution radiometer based wet tropospheric correction. And while Level3+4 surface water products are being directed by end user requirements, the overriding NASA objectives are the formation of high quality Earth Data Records with high accuracy and uniformity across multiple decades.
Lakes↗
The Global Water Monitor: Lake, Wetland, and River Reach Monitoring for Resource Management and Hazard Observation
The Global Water Monitor is a monitoring program offering surface water-related products for lakes, reservoirs, river reaches, and wetlands, https://blueice.gsfc.nasa.gov/gwm. These products are derived from multiple satellite-based altimetry and multispectral imaging platforms. The primary measurements are water level, slope, and extent, derived from a series of NASA and other agency instruments (Sentinel-3,-6, ICESat-2, SWOT, MODIS). The system serves stakeholders, the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service and the US Geological Survey, as well as various international, national, state, and intelligence agencies, engineers, ecologists, and hydrological researchers. Considering the sensitivity of ground-based data and the remote accessibility of many basins, the satellites offer global coverage, accuracy, and continuity of measurements. Observation of storage fluctuations in lakes and reservoirs provides users with knowledge of short and long-term drought conditions that can affect both water and energy resources. Emphasis is on changing climatic conditions, water sharing between nations, and regional stability. Measurements across a wetland complex can assist with efforts to assess hydrological dynamics with a focus on conservation efforts that aid both natural ecology and the sharing of precious water resources – the latter potentially being required in a basin across the municipal, crop irrigation, aquaculture, livestock, and power station spectrum. Observations of river reaches assists in the collection of basic hydraulic information, particularly in gauge-poor regions, for modelling efforts and the estimation of discharge, and at high-latitudes satellite-based river observations serve projects that warn of spring melts and flood hazards. We look at how recent improvements in instrument technology and mission operations are assisting with acquiring true global coverage and cross-validation efforts, and how stakeholders interact with the project in terms of setting requirements, product format, and accessibility methods. Examples show the application of the products across a range of programs, and in addition to meeting operational requirements, how the multi-decadal surface water levels are creating a high-quality timeline of Earth Data Records.
Lakes↗