Search NASA⌕ Search

Engineering topics

Cenker, Emre

Publications and source records attributed to Cenker, Emre.

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Soot-particle core-shell and fractal structures from small-angle X-ray scattering measurements in a flame

We have characterized soot particles measured in situ in a laminar co-flow ethylene-air diffusion flame using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The analysis includes temperature measurements made with coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) and complements soot volume-fraction and maturity measurements made with laser-induced incandescence (LII). We compared the results of fits to the SAXS measurements using a unified model and a fractal core-shell model. Power-law parameters yielded by the unified model indicate that aggregates of primary particles are in the mass-fractal regime, whereas the primary particles are in the surface-fractal regime in the middle of the flame. Higher and lower in the flame, the primary-particle power-law parameter approaches 4, suggesting smooth primary particles. Furthermore, these trends are consistent with fits using the fractal core-shell model, which indicate that particles have an established core-shell structure in the middle of the flame and are internally homogeneous at higher and lower heights in the flame. Primary-particle size distributions derived using the fractal core-shell model demonstrate excellent agreement with distributions inferred from transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images in the middle of the flame. Higher in the flame, a second small mode appears in the size distributions, suggesting particle fragmentation during oxidation. Surface oxidation would explain (1) aggregate fragmentation and (2) loss of core-shell structure leading to smoother primary-particle surfaces by removal of carbon overlayers. SAXS measurements are much more sensitive to incipient and young soot particles than LII and demonstrate significant volume fraction from particles low in the flame where the LII signal is negligible.

42 ENGINEERING↗