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Cerniglia, Mark C.

Publications and source records attributed to Cerniglia, Mark C..

Seasonal Variability of Middle Latitude Ozone in the Lowermost Stratosphere Derived from Probability Distribution Functions

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of characterizing the observed variability. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High (low) potential vorticity at 300 hPa indicates that the tropopause is low (high), and the identification of these two groups is made to account for the dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the ozone distribution from both observations and a three-dimensional model simulation using winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System for transport. Ozone data sets include ozonesonde observations from northern midlatitude stations (1991-96) and midlatitude observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) (1994- 1998). The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause (approximately 380K). The probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources, despite differences in horizontal and vertical resolution and spatial and temporal sampling. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. Results show that during summer, much of the observed variability is explained by the height of the tropopause. During the winter and spring, when the tropopause fluctuations are larger, less of the variability is explained by tropopause height. This suggests that more mixing occurs during these seasons. During all seasons, there is a transition zone near the tropopause that contains air characteristic of both the troposphere and the stratosphere. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is also discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗

Tracer evolution in winds generated by a global spectral mechanistic model

The lower boundary of a spectral mechanistic model is prescribed with 100 hPa geopotentials, and its performance during a November 1989 through March 1990 integration is compared with National Meteorological Center observations. Although the stratopause temperatures quickly become biased near the pole in both hemispheres, the model develops a residual mean circulation which shows significant descent over the winter pole and ascent in the tropics and over the summer pole at pressures less than 10 hPa. The daily correspondence of observed to modeled features in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere degrades after one month. However, the long-term variability qualitatively follows the observations. The results of off-line transport experiments are also described. A passive tracer is instantaneously injected into the flow over the poles and evolves in a manner which is consistent with the residual mean circulation. It demonstrates a significant cross-equatorial flux in the mesosphere near solstice, and air which originates in the southern hemisphere polar mesosphere can be found descending deep into the nothern polar stratosphere at the end of the integration. Nitrous oxide is also transported, and its ability to act as a dynamical tracer is evaluated by comparison to the evolution of the passive tracer.

Nielsen, J. E.↗

Implications of three-dimensional tracer studies for two-dimensional assessments of the impact of supersonic aircraft on stratospheric ozone

A 2D model which uses residual circulation and diffusion and a 3D model which uses winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system are used to estimate transport and dispersion of supersonic aircraft exhaust in the lower stratosphere. The seasonal behavior of the exhaust fields in the two models are is similar, but there is a significant difference in the placement of stratosphere/troposphere exchange in the two models. In the 2D model, exhaust transport to the troposphere occurs mostly at high latitudes, while in the 3D model it occurs at middle latitudes and is clearly associated with synoptic scale events. This may be particularly important to assessment calculations, as the pollutant source is mostly in middle latitudes. The 3D model is also used to examine the transport and dispersion of exhaust in three typical flight corridors: North Atlantic, North Pacific, and tropical. There are no systematic differences that suggest that one corridor is inherently more or less polluting than another.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

The effects of the October 1989 solar proton events on the stratosphere as computed using a three-dimensional model

In an effort to better characterize the interhemispheric difference in the ozone depletion observed as a result of the very large solar proton events (SPEs) of October 19-27, 1989, NASA-Goddard's 3D chemistry and transport model has been used to simulate the distribution of NO(x) and ozone after the SPEs. Differences in the constituent behavior of the two hemispheres are seen as due to substantial mixing of perturbed air in the Southern Hemisphere from the polar region with unperturbed lower latitude air during the final November warming, in conjunction with confinement of the photochemically perturbed air in the Northern Hemisphere in the wintertime polar vortex.

Jackman, Charles H.↗