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Chase, Eve Adde

Publications and source records attributed to Chase, Eve Adde.

Inferring Water Content from Neutron Die-away Curves for Planetary Science Applications

Signatures of liquid water on planetary bodies may provide evidence for past, present, or future life elsewhere in the solar system. Multiple current and upcoming planetary science missions are prioritizing the search for water, using innovative technologies and creative algorithms. For this project, we explore the capabilities of an instrument similar to the Dragonfly spacecraft to map water content on the surface of Titan, the largest moon of Saturn. We simulate Dragonfly’s neutron observations for a variety of soil compositions and develop multiple techniques to extract water content from the resultant neutron data. Additionally, we supplement neutron observations with gamma spectroscopy in an attempt to further refine water content estimates. This work is part of a larger study to employ Gaussian process regression to estimate a map of water content along the surface of Titan. Using the estimated map, an algorithm based on prediction difference mapping is employed to optimally move multiple Dragonfly detectors around the surface of Titan, fully autonomously.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Toward Forecasting Geomagnetic Storms

We present a selection of attempts to infer geomagnetic storm properties from time series data. Initially, we unsuccessfully attempt to predict the duration of a geomagnetic storm based on data preceding the onset of a geomagnetic storm. Similar techniques are also used to attempt to predict the maximum depth of a geomagnetic storm. Additionally, we present a case study in Gaussian Process regression, where we are able to accurately interpolate between geomagnetic storm parameters, but are unable to predict future storm behavior. Lastly, we describe attempts at using random forest regression with sliding windows to infer geomagnetic storm behavior at future times. These results did not provide robust forecasts of geomagnetic storm behavior, but did occasionally correctly predict a storm within the margin of error. Techniques presented in this paper include machine learning classification and regression, Gaussian Process regression, and machine learning regression with sliding windows. Many of the attempts presented in this document did not result in meaningful predictions of geomagnetic storm behavior. We hope this document can be used as a guide for future readers attempting to predict geomagnetic storm properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Kilonova Detectability with Wide-Field Instruments

A diverse set of instruments increase the chances of detecting and identifying a kilonova. Early observations increase the probability of detection. More sensitive wide-field ultraviolet instruments are needed as GW detectors reach design sensitivity. There is a dearth of wide-field infrared instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Kilonova Detectability with Wide-Field Instruments [Slides]

A diverse set of instruments increase the chances of detecting and identifying a kilonova. Early observations increase the probability of detection. More sensitive wide-field ultraviolet instruments are needed as GW detectors reach design sensitivity. There is a dearth of wide-field infrared instruments. These results are useful for guiding kilonova searches following a GW detection and sGRD observation, proposals for time on current and upcoming instruments, and planning future wide-field instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraints on the Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Neutron-star–Black-hole Merger GW200115

We report the results of our follow-up campaign for the neutron-star—black-hole (NSBH) merger GW200115 detected during the O3 run of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We obtained wide-field observations with the Deca-Degree Optical Transient Imager covering ~20% of the total probability area down to a limiting magnitude of w = 20.5 AB at ~23 hr after the merger. Our search for counterparts returns a single candidate (AT2020aeo), likely not associated with the merger. In total, only 25 sources of interest were identified by the community and later discarded as unrelated to the GW event. We compare our upper limits with the emission predicted by state-of-the-art kilonova simulations and disfavor high-mass ejecta (>0.1 M⊙), indicating that the spin of the system is not particularly high. By combining our optical limits with gamma-ray constraints from Swift and Fermi, we disfavor the presence of a standard short-duration burst for viewing angles ≲15° from the jet axis. Our conclusions are, however, limited by the large localization region of this GW event, and accurate prompt positions remain crucial to improving the efficiency of follow-up efforts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗