Parallel median consensus clustering in complex networks
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Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Engineering topics
Chatterjee, Samrat
Publications and source records attributed to Chatterjee, Samrat.
A tri-level optimization model for interdependent infrastructure network resilience against compound hazard events
Resilient operation of interdependent infrastructures against compound hazard events is essential for maintaining societal well-being. To address consequence assessment challenges in this problem space, we propose a novel policy-guided tri-level optimization model applied to a proof-of-concept case study with fuel distribution and transportation networks – encompassing one realistic network; one fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as networks drawn from three synthetic distributions. Mathematically, our approach takes the form of a defender-attacker-defender (DAD) model—a multi-agent tri-level optimization, comprised of a defender, attacker, and an operator acting in sequence. Here, in this study, our notional operator may choose proxy actions to operate an interdependent system comprised of fuel terminals and gas stations (functioning as supplies) and a transportation network with traffic flow (functioning as demand) to minimize unmet demand at gas stations. A notional attacker aims to hypothetically disrupt normal operations by reducing supply at the supply terminals, and the notional defender aims to identify best proxy defense policy options which include hardening supply terminals or allowing alternative distribution methods such as trucking reserve supplies. We solve our DAD formulation at a metropolitan scale and present practical defense policy insights against hypothetical compound hazards. We demonstrate the generalizability of our framework by presenting results for a realistic network; a fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as for three networks drawn from synthetic distributions. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of the framework by investigating runtime performance as a function of the network size. Steps for future research are also discussed.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Accelerating Scientific Simulations with Bi-Fidelity Weighted Transfer Learning
High-fidelity modeling is an essential design tool for many engineering applications. However, for complex systems, computational cost can be a limiting factor. Analyzing parameter sensitivity, uncertainty quantification, and design optimization require many model evaluations. Surrogate models are often used to develop the relationship between model parameters and quantities of interest. However, in the case of complex systems, surrogate models require several degrees of freedom and, thus, a large number of data points to determine the correct dependencies. For many applications, this may be prohibitively expensive. The reduction of computational requirements can be achieved by leveraging low-fidelity models. Low-fidelity models represent the system at a coarser resolution with the advantage of computational efficiency. Therefore, a bi-fidelity modeling paradigm, which augments the accuracy of a low-fidelity model in a computationally efficient manner by invoking limited runs of a high-fidelity model, can be leveraged to sufficiently balance the accuracy and computational requirements. In this work, a bi-fidelity weighted transfer learning method using neural networks was applied to a computational fluid dynamics heat transfer modeling problem. The transfer learning advantage was investigated as a function of hyperparameters. Our main finding is that the use of a bi-fidelity modeling paradigm achieves accuracy close to that of a high-fidelity Gaussian process model while significantly reducing computational cost. The bi-fidelity model achieves comparable performance with 90 high-fidelity samples-that is, 60% less than the samples needed to achieve similar accuracy without the use of bi-fidelity modeling,
Borowiec, Katarzyna↗
Autonomous Cyber Defense Against Dynamic Multi-strategy Infrastructural DDoS Attacks
Dynamic Infrastructural Distributed Denial of Service (I-DDoS) attacks constantly change attack vectors to congest core backhaul links and disrupt critical network availability while evading end-system defenses. To effectively counter these highly dynamic attacks, defense mechanisms need to exhibit adaptive decision strategies for real-time mitigation. This paper presents a novel Autonomous DDoS Defense framework that employs model-based reinforcement agents. The framework continuously learns attack strategies, predicts attack actions, and dynamically determines the optimal composition of defense tactics such as filtering, limiting, and rerouting for flow diversion. Our contributions include extending the underlying formulation of the Markov Decision Process (MDP) to address simultaneous DDoS attack and defense behavior, and accounting for environmental uncertainties. We also propose a fine-grained action mitigation approach robust to classification inaccuracies in Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS). Additionally, our reinforcement learning model demonstrates resilience against evasion and deceptive attacks. Evaluation experiments using real-world and simulated DDoS traces demonstrate that our autonomous defense framework ensures the delivery of approximately 96 - 98% of benign traffic despite the diverse range of attack strategies.
Dutta, Ashutosh↗
Extending Conformal Prediction to Hidden Markov Models with Exact Validity via de Finetti’s Theorem for Markov Chains
Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify uncertainty in settings where the data is independent and identically distributed (IID), or more generally, exchangeable. Conformal prediction takes in a pre-trained classifier and a calibration dataset as inputs, and returns a function which maps feature vectors to subsets of classes. The output of the returned function for a new feature vector is guaranteed to contain the true class with a pre-specified confidence. Despite its success and usefulness in IID settings, extending conformal prediction to non-exchangeable (e.g., Markovian) data in a manner that provably preserves all desirable theoretical properties has largely remained an open problem. As a solution, we extend conformal prediction to the setting of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with unknown parameters. The key idea behind the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti’s Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are then viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework and is general enough to be useful in many sequential prediction problems.
Nettasinghe, Don Buddhika Wijayantha↗
Collaboration and Negotiation
Collaboration and Negotiation is a critical high-level function of an Autonomous Intelligent Cyber-Defense Agent (AICA) that enables communication among agents, central cyber C2, and human operators. Maintaining the Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability (CIA) triad while achieving mission goals requires stealthy AICA agents to exercise: 1) minimal communication as needed for avoiding detection, 2) verification of information received with possibly limited resources, and 3) active learning during operations to address dynamic conditions. Moreover, negotiations to jointly identify and execute a Course of Action (COA) solution will require building consensus under distributed and/or decentralized multiagent settings with information uncertainties. This chapter presents algorithmic approaches for enabling the collaboration and negotiation function. Strengths and limitations of potential techniques are identified, and a representative example is illustrated. Recommendations for future development are also discussed.
Chatterjee, Samrat↗
Dynamic Network Analysis of Nuclear Science Literature for Research Influence Assessment
Analyzing nuclear science literature via data-driven methods is a critical step for assessing research influence and technology advancements. Indicators of scholarly activities may be buried in large volumes of nuclear research publications and collaboration networks over time. Mining for relevant scholarly influence trends in large volumes of text can be computationally challenging; however, open-source information on research collaborations over time can offer opportunities to extract meaningful insights. While network centrality analysis of scholarly research provides topology-based insights, additional emphasis on dynamics associated with the diffusion of information through these networks is important. Here this paper represents a step in that direction through the development of a novel dynamic network analysis framework and computational engine to identify key entities and capabilities over time within global scholarly nuclear science collaboration networks. Network theoretic, stochastic simulation, and optimization methods are leveraged to address variability in scholarly interactions, influence propagation, and collaboration patterns via network connections. A topic-aware influence maximization algorithm is developed to address the goal of identifying key influential authors in diverse research topics over time. Efficient parallelized implementation of the algorithm is applied to reduce computational costs. A proof-of-concept case study using open-source Scopus data with 33,517 published nuclear research papers from 2000-2019 is presented and representative analytic insights are generated. Broad implications of these insights are discussed and future research directions are also identified.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
Multi-level optimization with the koopman operator for data-driven, domain-aware, and dynamic system security
Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) like the power grid are critically important but also increasingly vulnerable; ensuring reliable system operation in the face of disruptions is becoming more and more challenging. Multi-Level Optimization (MLO) is a powerful way to model adversarial interactions, which naturally makes it applicable to studying CPS security. However, MLO typically does not address underlying system dynamics, and incorporating nonlinear dynamics is generally infeasible. In this paper, we show how to combine MLO with the Koopman Operator (KO) to remedy this. The KO maps nonlinear dynamics to a lifted space in which those dynamics are linear, thus making it ideal for use with MLO. Moreover, the structure of the KO also provides convenient ways to incorporate domain knowledge into the data-driven process of learning the KO representation of a given system. Here we then demonstrate the use of MLO-KO on a small example problem taken from the power grid domain, discuss the scalability and computational cost of MLO-KO, and identify future research directions for this work.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Role of reinforcement learning for risk-based robust control of cyber-physical energy systems
Critical infrastructures such as cyber-physical energy systems (CPS-E) integrate information flow and physical operations that are vulnerable to natural and targeted failures. Safe, secure, and reliable operation and control of CPS-E is critical to ensure societal well-being and economic prosperity. Automated control is key for real-time operations and may be mathematically cast as a sequential decision-making problem under uncertainty. Emergence of data-driven techniques for decision making under uncertainty, such as reinforcement learning (RL), have led to promising advances for addressing sequential decision-making problems for risk-based robust CPS-E control. However, existing research challenges include understanding the applicability of RL methods across diverse CPS-E applications, addressing the effect of risk preferences across multiple RL methods, and development of open-source domain-aware simulation environments for RL experimentation within a CPS-E context. This article systematically analyzes the applicability of four types of RL methods (model-free, model-based, hybrid model-free and model-based, and hierarchical) for risk-based robust CPS-E control. Problem features and solution stability for the RL methods are also discussed. We demonstrate and compare the performance of multiple RL methods under different risk specifications (risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-seeking) through the development and application of an open-source simulation environment. Motivating numerical simulation examples include representative single-zone and multizone building control use cases. Finally, six key insights for future research and broader adoption of RL methods are identified, with specific emphasis on problem features, algorithmic explainability, and solution stability.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Impact-Driven Sampling Strategies for Hybrid Attack Graphs
Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) have a large input space, with discrete and continuous elements across multiple layers. Hybrid Attack Graph (HAG) provide a flexible and efficient approach to generate attack sequences for a CPS. Analysis and testing of large-scale HAGs are prohibitively costly. We propose a dimension reduction via property-preserving multi-layer graph sampling algorithms. Existing property-preserving graph sampling approaches generate a representative subgraph of an original large-sized graph while preserving the key properties, such as node and edge distribution, clustering coefficients, and betweenness. On the other hand, we propose impact-driven sampling strategies to transform the input data to a lower-dimensional representation while retaining key properties of the data.
Subasi, Omer↗
Assurance by Design for Cyber Physical Data-Driven Systems
Currently, Cyber Physical Data-Driven Systems (CPDDS) employ machine learning for the classification, data fusion, and control of our nation’s infrastructure, such as the power grid, transportation networks (e.g., fuel distribution, air traffic control), and DoD long-duration collaborative autonomous platforms including unmanned underwater, ground, surface, space, and aerial systems. Many CPDDSs are system-of-systems that should be designed to communicate over disadvantaged networks. It is important to assure that the CPDDSs are resilient against physical and cyber threats by design. Additionally, their design should tolerate misclassification errors resulting from natural and/or adversarial distribution shifts within their data driven components. The all-domain nature of the problem of assuring the design of CPDDSs requires a multi-disciplinary perspective as outlined in this chapter.
Chikkagoudar, Satish↗
Disruption-Robust Community Detection Using Consensus Clustering in Complex Networks
Topological (graph-theoretic) analysis of critical infrastructure networks provides insight on several aspects of resilience. Graph clustering or community detection, which identifies densely connected components in a graph, has been employed for analysis. In this paper, we propose employing consensus clustering, which is a technique to determine consensus from a collection of different clusters on an input, such that the resulting clustering is robust to disruptions, where a disruption is represented as loss of one or more vertices or edges in the graph. Using two critical infrastructure networks as case studies, we empirically demonstrate the need to compute consensus clustering in order to address the drastic changes in the topology due to disruptions in the network.
Hussain, Md Taufique↗
Disaster risk and artificial intelligence: A framework to characterize conceptual synergies and future opportunities
Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have revolutionized and redefined the landscape of data analysis in business, healthcare, and technology. These methods have innovated the applied mathematics, computer science, and engineering fields and are showing considerable potential for risk science, especially in the disaster risk domain. The disaster risk field has yet to define itself as a necessary application domain for AI implementation by defining how to responsibly balance AI and disaster risk. (1) How is AI being used for disaster risk applications; and how are these applications addressing the principles and assumptions of risk science, (2) What are the benefits of AI being used for risk applications; and what are the benefits of applying risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications, (3) What are the synergies between AI and risk science applications, and (4) What are the characteristics of effective use of fundamental risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications? This study develops and disseminates an online survey questionnaire that leverages expertise from risk and AI professionals to identify the most important characteristics related to AI and risk, then presents a framework for gauging how AI and disaster risk can be balanced. This study is the first to develop a classification system for applying risk principles for AI-based applications. This classification contributes to understanding of AI and risk by exploring how AI can be used to manage risk, how AI methods introduce new or additional risk, and whether fundamental risk principles and assumptions are sufficient for AI-based applications.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
User Role Identification in Software Vulnerability Discussions over Social Networks
Understanding and early awareness of software vulnerabilities is vital for preventing and mitigating potential impacts from cybersecurity events. One step toward early characterization of software vulnerabilities may involve analyzing discussion and spread of information in online social networks. Prior work has used information from such discussions over multiple online forums to develop dynamic networks among users followed by analysis of structure, spread, and information evolution. In this work, we advance the state-of-the-art by focusing on data-driven learning of types, roles, and transition of roles exhibited by users over time. In social networks, users take on particular roles based on their actions and structure of the network. Identifying “meaningful” roles can help separate potential users of interest from the larger community, and identify patterns in a network. We will identify and compare roles found in online forums (e.g., Twitter) using techniques such as feature-based Non-negative Matrix Factorization coupled with topological and influence-based measures of centrality. Since users’ activities change over time, we also analyze role evolution in dynamic networks.
Jones, Rebecca D.↗
Efficient Sampling of Complex Interdependent and Multiplex Networks
Efficient sampling of interdependent and multiplex infrastructure networks is critical for effectively applying failure and recovery algorithms in real-world settings, as well as to generate property-preserving reduced-order graph-based ensembles that address topological uncertainties. In this paper, we first explore the performance, i.e. the success in preserving graph properties, of graph sampling algorithms for interdependent and multiplex networks with synthetic and real-world graphs. We simulate sampling algorithms under different parameter settings. These settings include probabilistic graph generators, coupling patterns, and various performance metrics. Our results show that while Random Node and Random Walk sampling algorithms perform best for interdependent networks, Random Edge and Forest Fire sampling algorithms perform best for multiplex networks. Second, we propose and implement a novel similarity-based sampling algorithm for multiplex networks that samples only log(N) number of layers of an N-layer multiplex network while yielding computational savings with performance guarantees. Experimental results show that similarity sampling outperforms complete sampling of all layers while decreasing performance costs from a linear scale to a logarithmic one. Our results also indicate that similarity-based sampling outperforms complete sampling and random selection in nearly all scenarios when tested with real-world data.
Subasi, Omer↗
Solving the Dynamics-Aware Economic Dispatch Problem with the Koopman Operator
The dynamics-aware economic dispatch (DED) problem embeds low-level generator dynamics and operational constraints to enable near real-time scheduling of generation units in a power network. DED produces a more dynamic supervisory control policy than traditional economic dispatch (T-ED) that reduces overall generation costs. However, in contrast to T-ED, DED is a nonlinear, non-convex optimization problem that is computationally prohibitive to solve. We introduce a machine learning-based operator-theoretic approach for solving the DED problem efficiently. Specifically, we develop a novel discrete-time Koopman Operator (KO) formulation that embeds domain information into the structure of the KO to learn high-fidelity approximations of the generator dynamics. Using the KO approximation, the DED problem can be reformulated as a computationally tractable linear program (abbreviated DED-KO). We demonstrate the high solution quality and computational-time savings of the DED-KO model over the original DED formulation on a 9-bus test system.
King, Ethan↗
Metagames and Hypergames for Deception-Robust Control
Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) consist of computing and communication devices integrated with physical components such as sensors and actuators. Increasing connectivity to the Internet for remote monitoring and control has made CPSs more vulnerable to deliberate attacks, which are distinctly different from random perturbations in the system. This provides a way for purely cyber attacks to have physical consequences. Stuxnet is a prominent example of such an attack, one in which the malware acted over an extended period of time while deliberately remaining undetected. Such attacks can be described as Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) -- long-term, stealthy attacks. Here, we extend our previous work on hypergames to develop defender strategies that are robust to deception and do not rely on attack detection. We prove that the defender can bound the attacker payoff with these strategies even when the attacker can choose between different attack modes, and we numerically demonstrate our approach on a realistic building control system. Finally, we discuss next steps in extending this approach towards an operational capability.
hypergames, cyber-physical systems, robust control↗
Science-integrated Artificial-intelligence for Flooding and precipitation Extremes (SAFE)
A grand challenge in hydrologic science is to understand why signals of climate change and variability, which are often visible in precipitation extremes at aggregate scales, are not consistently observed in the case of extreme flooding. However, a solution to this challenge may prove elusive unless the water cycle is viewed in an integrative manner. Thus, for riverine flooding, while Hortonian (infiltration excess) runoff may have stronger correlation with precipitation extremes and hence perhaps to warming trends or climate oscillators, Dunne (saturation excess) runoff may have a more complex relationships with time series of precipitation and with evaporation and transpiration, but rain-on-snow and snowmelt events may depend on land-surface and atmospheric temperatures. Atmospheric rivers and tropical cyclones lead to precipitation or flooding and are impacted by climate. Flooding assessments need to consider long-term baselines, evolving risk factors, coupled natural-human systems, and novel adaptation such as nature-inspired design.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗