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Chetan S Kulkarni

Publications and source records attributed to Chetan S Kulkarni.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Parametric Study of State-of-Charge for an Electric Aircraft in Urban Air Mobility

The envisioned concept of urban air mobility is anticipated to support passenger transportation, cargo delivery, and emergency services in major metropolitan areas with increasing autonomy levels in the future. Distributed electric propulsion powered electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft are expected to enable urban air mobility. However, the low specific energy of onboard lithium-ion polymer batteries and wind conditions impose constraints on flight endurance. Therefore, to enable autonomous urban air mobility operations using electric aircraft, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is to understand how various operational and environmental conditions impact the state-of-charge of the onboard lithium-ion polymer batteries. This research performs a parametric study of the state-of-charge for a NASA-proposed conceptual multirotor aircraft flight in the urban environment. The parameters considered for the parametric analysis are cruise airspeed, cruise altitude, climb and descent profiles, wind conditions (wind magnitude, wind direction relative to the route, and wind magnitude uncertainty), and required time of arrival.

Urban Air Mobility↗
NASA NTRS2021

Parametric Study of State of Charge for an Electric Aircraft in Urban Air Mobility

The envisioned concept of urban air mobility is anticipated to support passenger transportation, cargo delivery, and emergency services in major metropolitan areas with increasing autonomy levels in the future. Distributed electric propulsion powered electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft are expected to enable urban air mobility. However, the low specific energy of onboard lithium-ion polymer batteries and wind conditions impose constraints on flight endurance. Therefore, to enable autonomous urban air mobility operations using electric aircraft, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is to understand how various operational and environmental conditions impact the state-of-charge of the onboard lithium-ion polymer batteries. This research performs a parametric study of the state-of-charge for a NASA-proposed conceptual multirotor aircraft flight in the urban environment. The parameters considered for the parametric analysis are cruise airspeed, cruise altitude, climb and descent profiles, wind conditions (wind magnitude, wind direction relative to the route, and wind magnitude uncertainty), and required time of arrival.

Urban Air Mobility↗
NASA NTRS2021

An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Autonomous Flight System Tracking and Health Monitoring

This work proposes a perspective towards establishing a framework for uncertainty quantification of autonomous system tracking and health monitoring. The approach leverages the use of a predictive process structure, which maps uncertainty sources and their interaction according to the quantity of interest and the goal of the predictive estimation. It is systematic and uses basic elements that are system agnostic, and therefore needs to be tailored according to the specificity of the application. This work is motivated by the interest in low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle operations, where awareness of vehicle and airspace state becomes more relevant as the density of autonomous operations grows rapidly. Predicted scenarios in the area of small vehicle operations and urban air mobility have no precedent, and holistic frameworks to perform prognostics and health management (PHM) at the system- and airspace-level are missing formal approaches to account for uncertainty. At the end of the paper, two case studies demonstrate implementation framework of trajectory tracking and health diagnosis for a small unmanned aerial vehicle. This work has been accepted for publication at the International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management Jan 2021. Minor edits have been incorporated to this original submission to incorporate complete overview and software integration.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2020

Experimental Validation of Model-Based Prognostics for Pneumatic Valves

Because valves control many critical operations, they are prime candidates for deployment of prognostic algorithms. But, similar to the situation with most other components, examples of failures experienced in the field are hard to come by. This lack of data impacts the ability to test and validate prognostic algorithms. A solution sometimes employed to overcome this shortcoming is to perform run-to-failure experiments in a lab. However, the mean time to failure of valves is typically very high (possibly lasting decades), preventing evaluation within a reasonable time frame. Therefore, a mechanism to observe development of fault signatures considerably faster is sought. Described here is a testbed that addresses these issues by allowing the physical injection of leakage faults (which are the most common fault mode) into pneumatic valves. What makes this testbed stand out is the ability to modulate the magnitude of the fault almost arbitrarily fast. With that, the performance of end-of-life estimation algorithms can be tested. Further, the testbed is mobile and can be connected to valves in the field. This mobility helps to bring the overall process of prognostic algorithm development for this valve a step closer to validation. The paper illustrates the development of a model-based prognostic approach that uses data from the testbed for partial validation.

Chetan S Kulkarni↗
NASA NTRS2020

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancing Fault Isolation for Health Monitoring of Electric Aircraft Propulsion by Embedding Failure Mode and Effect Analysis into Bayesian Networks

This paper describes a fault isolation approach for electric powertrains of unmanned aerial vehicles. The approach leverages the combination of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and Bayesian networks, thus introducing depend-ability structures into a diagnostic framework. Faults and failure events from the FMEA are mapped within a Bayesian network, where network edges replicate the links embedded within FMEAs. This framework helps the fault isolation process by identifying the probability of occurrence of specific faults or root causes given evidence observed through sensor signals. The framework is applied to an electric power-train system of a small, rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle, demonstrating how a Bayesian network enhanced by FMEA helps disambiguate between root causes of incipient failures, which would otherwise be considered as equally probable.

Fault Isolation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systems Health Monitoring: Integrating FMEA into Bayesian Networks

The foreseeable high traffic density suggests that a large number of electric propulsion systems will enter the airspace, and that they will also operate at high frequency, e.g., large number of take offs and landings per unit time. The reliability of such critical systems is therefore key to ensure high safety standards in the low-altitude airspace. Diagnostic systems, which aim at identifying incipient faults, can mitigate unexpected failures or lower-than-expected reliability by performing early fault detection by monitoring the systems. A key element of fault diagnosis is fault detection and isolation (FDI), which complexity increases with the complexity of the system itself, namely the number of subsystems and components, interactions among sub-systems, and the number of sensors available. The proposed approach leverages combination of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) integrated with Bayesian networks, thus introducing dependability structures into a diagnostic framework to aid FDI. Faults and failure events from the FMEA are mapped within a Bayesian network, where network edges replicate the links embedded within FMEAs. The integrated framework enables the fault isolation process by identifying the probability of occurrence of specific faults or root causes given evidence observed through sensor signals. In this work, sub systems of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) type vehicle like avionics, structures, power-train etc. are taken into account to show the approach at the system level. This work integrates early design phase in the development of UAM type vehicles with diagnostic tools, which are often developed later in the product life-cycle, or retrofitted at a later time on systems. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) derived for the system in the design phase is embedded within a Bayesian network (BN).

UAM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hybrid Model Based Approaches for Systems Health Management and Prognostics

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision making. In principle, data driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for an effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Hybrid Modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systems Health Management and Prognostics Approaches for Electric Aircrafts

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining driving flying time/distance for the flying vehicles. This information is important, particularly in the case of auto vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing the remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. A systematic prediction framework is implemented to identify all possible sources of uncertainty, quantify each of them individually, and mathematically estimate their combined effect on the system-level quantity of interest, in this case, the remaining flying time/distance of the unmanned aircraft. Note - This presentation contains all previously published information.

Systems Health Managent↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Li-ion Battery Aging with Hybrid Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Fleet-wide Data

In this work, we propose a hybrid model for Li-ion battery discharge and aging prediction that leverages fleet-wide data to predict future capacity drops.The model is built upon an hybrid approach merging physics-based and empirical equations, as well as neural network models in a recurrent neural network cell. The hybrid physics-informed neural network can predict voltage discharge cycles given the loading profile, and estimate the used capacity of the battery under random-loading conditions by tracking aging parameters connected to the residual capacity of the battery. By merging information on the battery aging parameters with existing fleet-wide aging data, the model can predict the future residual capacity of the battery that is being monitored, and therefore enable predictions of voltage discharge curves far ahead in the battery life cycle. We validated the approach using the NASA Prognostics Data Repository Battery data-set, which contains experimental data on Li-ion batteries discharged at random loading conditions in a controlled environment. The approach also allows the identification of discrepancies between the battery aging trend and the trend observed at the fleet level, so that batteries behaving differently from the rest of the fleet can be subject to closer monitoring and further testing to refine predictions.

PINN↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Usage-based Lifing of Lithium-Ion Battery with HybridPhysics-Informed Neural Networks

Lithium-ion batteries are commonly used to power unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs).The ability to model and forecast the remaining useful life of these batteries enables UAV reliability assurance. Building accurate models for battery state of charge and state of health based on first principles is challenging due to the complex electrochemistry that governs battery operations and computational complexity required to solve them. Therefore, reduced order models are often used due to their ability to capture the overall battery discharge. Un-fortunately, these simplifications lead to residual discrepancy between model predictions and observed data. In this paper, we present a hybrid modeling approach merging reduced-order models and neural networks. In this approach, while most of the input-output relationship is captured by Nernst and Butler-Volmer equations, data-driven kernels reduce the gap between predictions and observations. We validate our approach using data publicly available through the NASA Prognostics Center of Excellence repository. Results showed that our hybrid battery prognosis model can be successfully calibrated, even with a limited number of observations.

Lithium-ion Battery↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring and predicting the health of physical systems. Prognostics algorithms are useful in that they can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system state throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. However, effective prognosis can be challenging to achieve in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for some prognostics applications. In this work, we implement three new algorithmic approaches to prediction (sampling methods, variable prediction time step, variable prediction sample size) with the goal of improving computational efficiency while minimizing decrease in model accuracy. To quantitatively analyze our results, we examine a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. Notably, through this work it was found that none of the sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. However, our results show that prediction accuracy is highly dependent on the time step used, and that an appropriate time step can optimize both model accuracy and simulation efficiency. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment in an application-specific manner may prove useful in some applications. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency of prognosis.

Prognostics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hybrid Approaches to Systems Health Management and Prognostics

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision making. In principle, data driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for an effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Systems Health Management↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Air Mobility Airspace Dynamic Density

Airspace safety must be assured for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) to become reality. Emerging operations need to safely integrate with existing and future air traffic. UAM is anticipated to evolve in stages. Early stages, characterized by low-density operations, may be accommodated by traditional air traffic management approaches. However, to enable the scale of UAM operations necessary to reach ubiquitous integration into daily life, new paradigms that utilize collaborative and automated systems are being considered. Correspondingly, traditional approaches for determining a safe number of simultaneous operations in an airspace must be adapted to suit evolving traffic management paradigms. In this paper, we examine dynamic density as an approach to determine when an airspace is excessively populated, and safety may become compromised. We review previous work on dynamic density as it relates to air traffic controller workload and propose factors that may be more fitting for UAMs. Rather than considering controller workload, we propose factors that suggest increased likelihood of loss of separation and may lead to conflicts that require tactical avoidance maneuvers. In addition to monitoring dynamic density for tactical decision making, we endeavor to predict airspace dynamic density with adequate look-ahead to allow for strategic route selection.

UAM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation Studies for an Urban Air Mobility Aircraft using Hardware-In-Loop Experiments

Urban Air Mobility seeks to transport passengers, deliver cargo, and provide emergency transportation in major metropolitan areas. This will be accomplished with distributed electric-powered vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. The low specific energy of the current generation lithium-ion battery packs limit the operational range of electric aircraft. Limited range impacts safety by reducing the time available for analyzing and responding to errors and failures, and limiting the ability to fly to an alternative landing area or return to base. It is therefore critical to understand flight operational and environmental conditions that impact the onboard lithium-ion polymer battery pack’s health. With this as the motivation, experimental procedure in a laboratory setting, and results of the experiments performed on battery packs subject to power draw corresponding to power required during the different phases of flight of a NASA conceptual quadrotor aircraft in simulation are described. The fully charged battery is allowed to discharge at specific C-rates based on the power draw profile and the current and voltages are recorded. Observed results under different operating conditions and mission profiles are discussed.

UAM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Air Mobility Airspace Dynamic Density

Effective flight planning requires information about a variety of potential threats, such as adverse weather or airspace restrictions, and about alternatives available if unforeseen events occur. Expected traffic along the route of flight is also essential to a safe outcome so that, for example, adequate fuel/energy supply can be loaded prior to flight. A dynamic density (DD) metric is introduced for the emerging urban air mobility (UAM) concept to predict airspace congestion that may lead to loss of separation between aircraft or less efficient operations. Using inspiration from dynamic density metric research for traditional air traffic management and a two-way highway analogy, we develop a dynamic density metric for a portion of airspace (aUAM corridor) that aggregates the impact from five factors: aircraft density, density of populous clusters, mean number of aircraft in populous clusters, mean distance between aircraft, and minimum distance between aircraft. This works describes our methodology, rationale, use cases, and visualization techniques to efficiently present the DD metric to an operator for informed decision making. We also present an approach for validating the metric. However, validation remains part of future work.

UAM↗