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Coleman, Justin

Publications and source records attributed to Coleman, Justin.

MASTODON: An Open-Source Software for Seismic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure

Seismic analysis and risk assessment of safety-critical infrastructure like hospitals, nuclear power plants, dams, and facilities handling radioactive materials involve computationally intensive numerical models and coupled multiphysics scenarios. They are also performed in a strict regulatory environment that requires high software quality assurance standards, and in the case of safety-related nuclear facilities, a conformance to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) standard. This paper introduces the open-source finite-element software, MASTODON (Multi-hazard Analysis of Stochastic Time-Domain Phenomena), which implements state-of-the-art seismic analysis and risk assessment tools in a quality-controlled environment. MASTODON is built on MOOSE (Multi-physics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment), which is a highly parallelizable, NQA-1 conforming, coupled multiphysics, finite-element framework developed at Idaho National Laboratory. MASTODON is capable of fault rupture and source-to-site wave propagation using the domain reduction method, nonlinear site response, and soil-structure interaction analysis, implicit and explicit time integration, automated stochastic simulations, and seismic probabilistic risk assessment. When coupled with other MOOSE applications, MASTODON can also solve strongly and weakly coupled multiphysics problems. This paper presents a summary of the capabilities of MASTODON and some demonstrative examples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Nonlinear Modeling of Ground Motions at Lotung LSST Site with Nested Surface Soil Constitutive Model

Seismic analyses of nuclear facilities require the use of validated numerical models that can realistically reproduce the response of soils during earthquakes. The nested surface nonlinear, hysteretic soil constitutive model is one of the soil constitutive models that is vastly used due to (i) lower number of free parameters compared to other nonlinear soil constitutive models, and (ii) because of the ease of calibrating these parameters using the commonly available soil data, i.e., G/G max and damping curves as a function of shear strain. This material model is available in commercial finite element software packages (LS-DYNA and Abaqus) as well in the open source finite element tool (Mastodon). The purpose of this study is to estimate the parameters required for this material model from the soil data available for the Lotung site and to demonstrate that this nonlinear soil constitutive model used in a time domain, finite element analysis can reasonably reproduce the actual measured soil motions recorded at Lotung during the LSST07 event on May 20, 1986. Results are introduced from all the three softwares mentioned above using the same material model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PF-4 Seismic Performance Reassessment, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Project Charter and Integrated Project Team

This report presents the charter of the Integrated Project Team for conducting the PF-4 Seismic Performance Reassessment (P-SPRa) Project. The overall objective of the project is to compute the seismic performance of the PF-4 structure. The credited safety feature of the structure is to provide tertiary confinement of hazardous materials. This document highlights major tasks to be performed as part of the project. It includes a project schedule and a work breakdown structure dictionary. It also includes roles and responsibilities for key project personnel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Approaches and Recommendations to Address Regulatory Gaps Identified in INL/EXT-15-36945

The information presented in this report completes Task 2.3, identified in Table 1 of 14-CR-04, Mod 3. The title of task 2.3 is, “Develop approaches to address regulatory gaps identified in INL/EXT-15-36945 and prepare recommendations.” The purpose of the task is to identify regulatory gaps related to nonlinear soil structure interaction analysis and seismic isolation of TWR-300 and propose a path to close the gaps and complete the licensing basis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Risk-Informed External Hazards Analysis for Seismic and Flooding Phenomena for a Generic PWR

This report describes the activities performed during the FY2017 for the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS-RISMC), Industry Application #2. The scope of Industry Application #2 is to deliver a risk-informed external hazards safety analysis for a representative nuclear power plant. Following the advancements occurred during the previous FYs (toolkits identification, models development), FY2017 focused on: increasing the level of realism of the analysis; improving the tools and the coupling methodologies. In particular the following objectives were achieved: calculation of buildings pounding and their effects on components seismic fragility; development of a SAPHIRE code PRA models for 3-loops Westinghouse PWR; set-up of a methodology for performing static-dynamic PRA coupling between SAPHIRE and EMRALD codes; coupling RELAP5-3D/RAVEN for performing Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis and automatic limit surface search; and execute sample calculations for demonstrating the capabilities of the toolkit in performing a risk-informed external hazards safety analyses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation of Nuclear Structures in Terms of Reduced Risk and Cost

Seismic isolation is a mature technology that has been implemented in many civil structures, including buildings, bridges, liquid natural gas tanks, and off shore oil platforms, both in the United States and other countries, to mitigate the damaging effects of earthquakes. Seismic isolation has also been used in nuclear structures in France and South Africa, but not yet in the United States: neither in the Department of Energy facilities nor in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is primarily due to a lack of guidelines, codes and standards for the analysis, design and construction specific to seismically isolated nuclear structures. However, seismic isolation of nuclear structures has seen increased research interest in the recent years and the recently published national consensus standard, America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4-16 'Seismic analysis of safety related nuclear structures', now incorporates language and commentary (Chapter 12) for seismically isolating surface or near-surface-mounted nuclear facilities, including NPPs. Seismic isolation substantially reduces horizontal seismic loads (demands) on structures, systems, and components. Reduction in demand results in four potential benefits: (1) economic: reduction in capital cost, (2) increased safety: reduction in the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance, (3) insurance: protection against increases in the known seismic hazard after construction by minimizing the effort to re-qualify and re-certify structures, systems and components, and (4) recertification: the opportunity to certify an existing NPP design for a region of higher seismic hazard. Item (2) above, an increase in safety (reduction of seismic risk), was explored in Huang et al., wherein it was demonstrated that the implementation of seismic isolation reduced seismic risk in nuclear power plant structures. Studies that assess item (1) have not been performed although the use of isolation may lead to large reductions in the capital cost of safety-related nuclear facilities. Funding provided by Nuclear Safety Research and Development in the Department of Energy (DOE) allowed the authors to develop a framework for assessing the economic benefits and reductions in seismic risk afforded by the use of seismic (base) isolation. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimation of overnight capital costs (OCC's) of a sample generic DOE nuclear facility (GDNF). The project is documented in detail in Bolisetti et al. and Yu et al., and key results are presented here. The GDNF considered in this study is based on a facility constructed at the Idaho National Laboratory. The GDNF is a two-story reinforced concrete building with an embedded basemat and is founded on soft rock at the boundary of Site Class B and Site Class C (B/C boundary) as characterized by ASCE/SEI Standard 7. The GDNF is assumed to handle radiological materials, and its structure, systems and components (SSC's) are designed to effectively confine these materials in the event of an internal failure. The GDNF is populated with components that are generic to safety-related nuclear structures. A single system, which is intended to confine a loss of materials-at-risk (MAR) to the interior of the structure, is chosen for this study. Accordingly, a hypothetical event tree and fault tree are assumed for risk assessment. The isolation system for the GDNF is designed per Chapter 12 of ASCE/SEI 4-16 but is not optimized. The isolation system consists of 38 lead rubber bearings installed in one horizontal plane below the basemat. Details of the GDNF, including the SSC's, event tree and fault tree, and isolation system, are presented in the project report and Yu et al.. This study includes seismic risk assessment and cost estimation for four cases: (1) the GDNF is located at a site of low to moderate seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional (non-isolated) foundation; (2) the GDNF is located at the same site as case 1, but is seismically isolated; (3) the GDNF is located at a site of high seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional foundation; and (4) the GDNF is located at the same site of high seismic hazard as case 3, but is seismically isolated. In this study, the DOE site at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is chosen as the low to moderate seismic hazard site for cases 1 and 2, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is chosen as the high seismic hazard site for cases 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

Energy supply, distribution, and demand are continuing to evolve as new generation sources come online and new appliances are installed. A larger percentage of the United States (U.S.) energy mix is provided by variable energy sources such as wind and solar each year, and distributed generation is becoming more common. In parallel, an evolution in consumer products such as electrical vehicles, information technology devices for residential and industrial applications, and appliances is changing how energy is consumed. As a result of these trends, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are being called upon to operate more flexibly than ever before. Furthermore, advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) might operate as part of an electricity system that looks very different than when the current NPP fleet was constructed. A-NPPs face the possibility that they will need to operate in an environment where flexibility (e.g., fast ramping) is more highly valued than stability (e.g., baseload generation for conventional demand curves). The current fleet of NPPs is struggling to remain economical in competitive markets in an era of historically low natural gas prices and renewable sources with very low marginal costs. These factors, overlaid with an ambiguous national policy related to nuclear energy and a decision-making context that struggles with multi-decade capital investments, raise key questions and present significant challenges to the economics of nuclear power in the evolving grid. Multiple factors could improve the economics of A-NPPs, including: (1) minimizing the need for active safety systems, (2) minimizing adoption of one-off reactor designs, (3) establishing policies that credit low carbon emitting technologies, and (4) integrating energy storage technologies that increase revenue and reduce costs through a combination of ancillary services, market hedging, and reduced costs via stable operation. This report focuses on Item (4), containing an overview, synthesis, and examination of energy storage options that could be integrated with nuclear generation. Figure 1 provides an overview of the 2015 energy mix by sector, which shows that NPPs are currently used exclusively for electricity generation that is ultimately consumed in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Some areas for NPP energy growth in the future include power generation for electrified transportation and thermal generation for storage and industrial applications. Currently, most industrial thermal energy users combust fossil resources (i.e., coal or natural gas) to meet the energy needs of the processes, but heat from nuclear operations could also be used in certain specific applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

MASTODON Theory Manual

Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) is a finite element application that aims at analyzing the response of 3-D soil-structure systems to natural and man-made hazards such as earthquakes, floods and fire. MASTODON currently focuses on the simulation of seismic events and has the capability to perform extensive ‘source-to-site’ simulations including earthquake fault rupture, nonlinear wave propagation and nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis. MASTODON is being developed to be a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework that enables analysts to not only perform deterministic analyses, but also easily perform probabilistic or stochastic simulations for the purpose of risk assessment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ESTABLISHING ROCK OUTCROP TIME SERIES AT VARIOUS DEPTHS IN A NONLINEAR SOIL COLUMN

Nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis methods are currently being developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Appendix B in ASCE 4 (2016) includes a framework for performing NLSSI analysis. For NLSSI analysis to be widely implemented in industry, it is important to demonstrate that accurate response in a dynamically loaded, nonlinear soil column can be produced. In performing NLSSI analysis, one approach is to consider vertically propagating shear and compressive waves that pass through a nonlinear soil column and into a structure. Using finite element techniques, the structure can be placed in a finite volume of nonlinear soil with a rock outcrop seismic time series applied to the bottom of the nonlinear soil. The necessary depth of the nonlinear soil mesh is dependent on the vertical soil stiffness when the model is in static and dynamic equilibrium. Run time, and therefore size of the meshed soil domain, is an important consideration when developing the NLSSI model. An approach is presented in this paper that establishes compatible rock outcrop seismic time series for reduced nonlinear soil mesh depths. To apply the approach, an example is developed using a reasonable soil column with a reasonable top-of-soil response spectrum. The approach is an iterative method which is applied in two steps. The first step is used to establish a reasonable rock outcrop time series at the highest depth considered. The second step is used to establish compatible rock outcrop time series at shallower depths.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation for Nuclear Structures: A Framework for Risk-Based Decision Making

This report provides a framework for assessing the benefits of seismic isolation and exercises the framework on a Generic Department of Energy Nuclear Facility (GDNF). These benefits are (1) reduction in the risk of unacceptable seismic performance and a dramatic reduction in the probability of unacceptable performance at beyond-design basis shaking, and (2) a reduction in capital cost at sites with moderate to high seismic hazard. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimates of overnight capital cost for the GDNF.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PWR Station Blackout and External Events Analysis for LWRS/RISMC Project

In the framework of the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability/ Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS/RISMC) project, methods, data and tools are being developed with the ultimate scope of improving the safety and operation of the current US nuclear fleet. A set of Industrial Applications (IA) concerning the most relevant safety issues is defined for applying and testing the developed tool kits. The ultimate scope of IA no. 2 is a realistic simulation of natural external hazards that impose threat to a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). This scope requires the development of a methodology and of a qualified set of tools able to perform advanced risk-informed safety analysis. In particular the methodology should be able to combine results from seismic, flooding and thermal-hydraulic (TH) deterministic calculations with dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A so-called Risk Informed Margin Management (RIMM) approach is being used to represent meaningful (i.e., realistic facility representation and simulation) event scenarios and consequences by linking probabilistic simulations to external events physics. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

External Events Analysis for LWRS/RISMC Project: Methodology Development and Early Demonstration

The ultimate scope of Industrial Application no.2 (IA) of the LWRS/RISMC project is a realistic simulation of natural external hazards that impose threat to a NPP. This scope requires the development of a methodology and of a qualified set of tools able to perform advanced risk-informed safety analysis. In particular the methodology should be able to combine results from seismic, flooding and thermal-hydraulic (TH) deterministic calculations with dynamic PRA. A so-called Risk Informed Margin Management (RIMM) approach is being used to represent meaningful (i.e., realistic facility representation and simulation) event scenarios and consequences by linking probabilistic simulations to external events physics. Calculations performed so far demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed methodology in analyzing multi-hazards generated by External Events. The sample application described in this paper allowed identifying the main issues (code interfaces, computational and human resources needed, simplifications) connected to such kind of advanced analysis. The next steps will be the risk-informed earthquakes and flooding analysis of a system of a generic PWR.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Seismic Fragility Modeling using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis

The goal of this effort is to compare the seismic fragilities of a nuclear power plant system obtained by a traditional seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) and an advanced SPRA that utilizes Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Soil-structure interaction (SSI) response analysis for a traditional SPRA involves the linear analysis, which ignores geometric nonlinearities (i.e., soil and structure are glued together and the soil material undergoes tension when the structure uplifts). The NLSSI analysis will consider geometric nonlinearities.

31274, LWRS↗

Progress for the Industry Application External Hazard Analyses Early Demonstration

This report describes the current progress and status related to the Industry Application #2 focusing on External Hazards. For this industry application within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) R&D Pathway, we will create the Risk-Informed Margin Management (RIMM) approach to represent meaningful (i.e., realistic facility representation) event scenarios and consequences by using an advanced 3D facility representation that will evaluate external hazards such as flooding and earthquakes in order to identify, model and analyze the appropriate physics that needs to be included to determine plant vulnerabilities related to external events; manage the communication and interactions between different physics modeling and analysis technologies; and develop the computational infrastructure through tools related to plant representation, scenario depiction, and physics prediction. One of the unique aspects of the RISMC approach is how it couples probabilistic approaches (the scenario) with mechanistic phenomena representation (the physics) through simulation. This simulation-based modeling allows decision makers to focus on a variety of safety, performance, or economic metrics. In this report, we describe the evaluation of various physics toolkits related to flooding representation. Ultimately, we will be coupling the flooding representation with other events such as earthquakes in order to provide coupled physics analysis for scenarios where interactions exist.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Advanced Seismic Fragility Modeling using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis

The goal of this effort is to compare the seismic fragilities of a nuclear power plant system obtained by a traditional seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) and an advanced SPRA that utilizes Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Soil-structure interaction (SSI) response analysis for a traditional SPRA involves the linear analysis, which ignores geometric nonlinearities (i.e., soil and structure are glued together and the soil material undergoes tension when the structure uplifts). The NLSSI analysis will consider geometric nonlinearities.

31274, LWRS↗