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Coleman, Justin L.

Publications and source records attributed to Coleman, Justin L..

Cost- and Risk-Based Seismic Design Optimization of Nuclear Power Plant Safety Systems

Seismic analysis, design, and qualification of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) is a significant contributor to the capital cost of a nuclear power plant. To reduce capital costs of advanced nuclear power plants and make commercial nuclear energy more competitive, innovations are needed in their structural design and construction, and not just in the reactor core and associated systems. Seismic isolation has been identified as an important cost-cutting technology that enables standardization of equipment across various sites. This paper develops and demonstrates a cost- and risk-based seismic design optimization of a representative safety system in a nuclear power plant with the dual goals of minimizing overnight capital cost and meeting safety goals. The design optimization can also include component seismic isolation, in which case, the optimized design includes a set of equipment that needs to be seismically isolated to minimize capital cost. The open-source codes MASTODON and Dakota are used for seismic probabilistic risk assessment and design optimization, respectively. A generic nuclear facility with a safety system comprising SSCs that are common to nuclear power plants is considered for the demonstration of the design optimization and is assumed to be located at the Idaho National Laboratory site. Generic costs and seismic design cost functions are assumed for the SSCs of the safety system. The sum of the costs of the SSCs is minimized in the optimization process, while the risk of failure of the safety system is provided as a constraint. Furthermore, results show that the optimization process reduces capital costs significantly while automatically prioritizing the safety of SSCs that contribute most to the risk of the safety system.

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Seismic Isolation of Major Advanced Reactor Systems for Economic Improvement and Safety Assurance

Advanced reactor concepts currently under development in the United States [e.g., the High-Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) of X-Energy and the Molten Chloride Fast Reactor (MCFR) of TerraPower] are striving to improve the economics of nuclear power primarily by using passively and ‘walk-away’ safe technologies in the reactor. The recently published report, ‘Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World’ by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Institute (MIT EI) has shown that a significant contributor to the capital cost of NPPs is the ‘civil works’ i.e., the construction of the balance of plant (BoP: all SSCs except those involved in power generation, e.g., reactor vessel) such as the buildings, containment dome, foundation, etc., which amount to almost half of the overnight capital cost. The report suggests that using advanced construction technologies such as seismic isolation and high-performance concrete to significantly reduce the capital costs of advanced reactors. This report demonstrates the application of two cost-cutting solutions on advanced reactor designs that are currently under development. These solutions include, (1) seismic base isolation, and (2) risk- and cost-based seismic design optimization including seismic isolation of individual components.

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Simulation of site and topographic effects on ground motion in Los Alamos, NM mesas

Mesas, which consist of an elevated area of land with a flat top and steep cliffs at the sides, are one of the common geological formations present in the Los Alamos region. Previous research has shown that geological formations such as sedimentary canyons can amplify soil response during earthquakes. There have also been parametric studies to understand the response of an idealized and isolated mountain/canyon under inclined plane waves. In this study, a 2-D linear anelastic soil domain, with topography modelled after the Los Alamos region with many mesas and canyons, is considered to understand site-specific topographic effects in the presence of non-isolated topographical features. Various earthquake sources configurations ranging from point sources to finite faults with varying rupture length, dip angles and spatial slip distributions are considered. To isolate the effect of topography, three other soil domains—a homogeneous half-space, homogeneous half-space with mesas and canyons, and a computational domain with just the soil properties from the Los Alamos region on a flat soil domain is also considered. 2-D site-response analyses of these soil domains under earthquake excitation show that the free-field response of the soil can be amplified or de-amplified depending on the topography of the region and the location of the station relative to the fault. These studies also show that even relatively small mesas with height less than 100 m can significantly amplify the response (by a factor of 2 or more), which differ from the much smaller amplification factors (≤1.2) specified by standard building codes such as Eurocode-8 (2000) for topographical features with a similar slope. De-amplifications are also fairly common, especially close to the canyons. The results from this study agree qualitatively with those from the ambient vibration study conducted by Stolte et al. on a mesa from the Los Alamos region. Furthermore, such site-specific studies provide important insights into the variability of the topographic amplification factors within a region of interest. Such knowledge is important in the design of safety-related critical infrastructure located within that region.

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High frequency content in nonlinear soil response: A numerical artifact or a reality?

This article probes the reasons for the presence of high frequency components, which are not a part of the input, in the output of nonlinear site response analysis. The nonlinear site response analysis of a single soil element, under a single frequency sinusoidal displacement, is conducted to demonstrate the presence of frequencies higher than the input frequency in the soil element's shear stress and the free surface acceleration. The parameters of this one element problem are chosen carefully to minimize numerical errors. The shape of the stress-strain hysteresis loop is found to be the main cause for the presence of these higher frequencies. A quasi-static problem similar to the direct shear test is then considered to analyze the effect of different hysteresis shapes. Through this analysis, it is numerically and analytically shown that any deviation of the stress-strain hysteresis shape from a perfect ellipse results in output frequencies higher than the input frequency and the number of higher frequencies produced depends on whether the hysteresis shape is smooth or pointed.

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Enabling Advanced Reactors for the Market Meeting Summary Report

To address the topic of the future energy market and the role nuclear energy plays in providing a reliable energy source in that future market, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) Initiative, the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) hosted the “Enabling Advanced Reactors for the Market Symposium,” on March 8-9, 2018, at George Washington University. This symposium brought together approximately 120 technology developers, energy users, government representatives, industry, national laboratories, universities and others to engage in a dialogue about the future energy market and the role of advanced nuclear technologies.

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Establishing Outcrop Time Series at Various Depths in a Nonlinear Soil Column: An Iterative Approach

Seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) analysis of nuclear facilities is an important consideration during design and retrofit. SSI tools used in the nuclear industry are currently based on an equivalent linear approach. Procedures for developing input ground motion for equivalent linear approaches are well established. However, the procedures for establishing input ground motion for Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis of nuclear facilities is not well established. A collaborative research group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has recently developed analytical methods and numerical tools for using NLSSI analysis for nuclear facility seismic calculations. NLSSI analysis for a nuclear facility allows for calculation of seismic wave motion through a near field soil domain using either, (1) vertically propagating shear and compressive waves, which is the current industry practice, or (2) a three-dimensional non-vertical wave field. This paper presents an iterative procedure for establishing outcrop motion at a depth in the soil column for NLSSI analysis that uses vertically propagating shear waves. The approach presented in this paper starts with a known ground motion at the surface, deconvolves to a depth, and then convolves the obtained motion up to a different desired location of input for the NLSSI model. To demonstrate the validity of the approach a finite element soil column, that is representative of a nuclear facility site in the US, is used to produce compatible outcrop seismic time series for reduced nonlinear soil mesh depths. The developed approach for reducing the nonlinear soil column model depth is a two-step iterative method; 1) the first step is establishing an outcrop time series at the lowest depth considered that produces the top-of-soil response spectrum of an actual recorded ground motion, and 2) the second step is providing compatible outcrop time series at a shallower depth based on the information from the first step. The comparison of the 5% damped response spectrum from the resulting acceleration time series based on the iterated outcrop motions and the original acceleration time series are conducted. The study showed that the proposed iterative approach produced comparable results within 1% range of the original recorded time series results when sufficient iterations were performed.

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Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology: Development of Beta 1.0 MASTODON Toolset

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States, but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the plant elements and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms. Development of the next generation tools and methods for external events PRA is ongoing under the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) technical pathway. The RISMC toolkit development centers on integration of the tools and methods under a common framework, MOOSE. These tools and methods make use of existing and newly developed tools and methods, coupled with the experience and data gained in the past decades, to define and analyze more realistic risk assessment models. Specific focus in this report is on the capability to model seismic risk using advanced SPRA methods. Over the last year, significant capability has been added to Mastodon to simulate 3-D wave passage effects through nonlinear soil. Verification has demonstrated the capability of Mastodon to model wave passage effects in 1-D, 2-D, and 3-D. Methods have been developed to incorporate probabilistic floor response capabilities. Additional capability will be added to Mastodon over the next year to implement a robust gapping and sliding element for cyclic shaking, web-based verification and user manuals, stochastic finite elements, and frequency independent damping. Verification of added capabilities has occured in parallel with code writing activities.

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EFFECT OF INCLINED WAVES ON DEEPLY EMBEDDED NUCLEAR FACILITIES

Several conceptual designs for advanced reactors show that most if not all of the structure is embedded in the soil. Consequently, analysis techniques that have been verified and validated for the analysis of light water reactors on surface foundations may not be directly applicable to deeply embedded reactors. Specifically two effects that may change the in-structure response (ISR) of embedded facilities are: (i) the effect of the kinematic interaction becomes more prominent as the embedment depth increases; (ii) non-vertically propagating waves, which are usually not considered for surface-founded facilities, may be more important for deeply embedded facilities. A preliminary study is presented in this article to understand the response of embedded nuclear facilities to non-vertically propagating seismic waves. The inclined wave field is generated from source-to-site simulations using representative earthquake faults with different dip angles. The embedment depth of the nuclear containment facility is also varied to obtain a better understanding of the effect of embedment. This analysis of the soil-structure ensemble is conducted using the application called Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON), developed on top of Idaho National Lab’s open source MOOSE finite element framework. The Domain Reduction Method implemented in MASTODON to incorporate the seismic excitation within the region of interest is verified and then used to reduce the computational effort in analyzing this problem. Preliminary analysis using linear soil and structure material properties and tied contact between the soil and structure indicate that embedding the nuclear facility reduces significantly the response of the structure in all the earthquake scenarios considered.

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An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

The dynamics of energy generation, delivery, and consumption in the United States continue to change as new energy sources come online and consumers purchase more energy-intensive devices. The percentage of electricity generation from variable renewable energy sources like wind and solar power has grown year after year. Meanwhile, the evolution of electric vehicles, smart devices, and consumer appliances is changing the way that electricity is used. As a result of these trends, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are being asked to operate more flexibly. Newly constructed, advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) will likely need to adapt their business models with these market shifts in mind. In the future, A-NPPs might operate in an electricity system that values flexibility (e.g. fast ramping) more than stability (e.g. baseload supply). The current fleet of NPPs is struggling to remain economically viable in competitive markets that favor low natural gas prices and renewable energy sources with low marginal costs. Rising construction costs and ambiguous national policies have only added to the challenges facing plant operators. The industry as a whole is in decline, with 19 reactors in the process of being decommissioned and 5 of these plants retiring in the past decade. However, NPPs also provide several performance and environmental benefits by maintaining a high capacity factor and generating almost zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the life cycle of the plant. As more areas of energy consumption in the United States are electrified, NPPs could potentially replace coal and natural gas as a source of heat and power to help decarbonize the U.S. energy mix. Improving the flexibility of newly constructed A-NPPs to increase revenue through market hedging and reduce costs via stable operation was explored in this analysis. The increasing penetration of variable energy resources could contribute to the uncertainty of electricity demand, which could in turn increase the need for dispatchable electricity generating units. This role is currently filled by inexpensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants, whereas coal and NPPs have traditionally been called upon to provide baseload power by maintaining a constant power output. As wholesale electricity prices continue to fall due to low natural gas prices and federally subsidized renewable energy, this business model has begun to fail, resulting in incidences of NPPs selling electricity at a loss. Since it has not been economically favorable for NPPs to operate flexibly in this situation in the past, due to their low variable costs compared to fossil fuel power plants, NPPs in the United States were not built with this purpose in mind. Therefore, legacy NPPs have had difficulty adapting to these shifting dynamics due to regulatory and technical constraints, coupled with a lack of meaningful experience. NPPs in France have operated in this manner for years, due to a much higher percentage of baseload generators and a lower percentage of fast-ramping NGCC plants. The integration of energy storage technologies (ESTs) alongside newly constructed A-NPPs will be investigated in this analysis as an alternative method for helping NPPs resolve the economic challenges they currently face. Although the deregulation of energy markets in the United States is responsible for much of the increased competition from natural gas and renewable energy that has negatively impacted NPPs, this process has also led to the creation of ancillary service markets. ESTs can provide many of these services, so an integrated energy storage system could supplement both the reliability of the electricity grid and the economic performance of a NPP by bidding into these markets. However, many technical, financial, and regulatory barriers still prevent ESTs from operating profitably in this space. The purpose of this body of work is to compile a transparent database of metrics for available ESTs and identify barriers to widespread deployment. An analytical selection methodology was also developed to identify favorable technologies for integration with specific NPPs based on information supplied by an interested developer. These tools could help reduce the perceived risk surrounding investment in energy storage systems, which could help both NPPs in need of economic assistance and ESTs in need of further research and development.

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An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

Energy supply, distribution, and demand are continuing to evolve as new generation sources come online and new appliances are installed. A larger percentage of the United States (U.S.) energy mix is provided by variable energy sources such as wind and solar each year, and distributed generation is becoming more common. In parallel, an evolution in consumer products such as electrical vehicles, information technology devices for residential and industrial applications, and appliances is changing how energy is consumed. As a result of these trends, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are being called upon to operate more flexibly than ever before. Furthermore, advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) might operate as part of an electricity system that looks very different than when the current NPP fleet was constructed. A-NPPs face the possibility that they will need to operate in an environment where flexibility (e.g., fast ramping) is more highly valued than stability (e.g., baseload generation for conventional demand curves). The current fleet of NPPs is struggling to remain economical in competitive markets in an era of historically low natural gas prices and renewable sources with very low marginal costs. These factors, overlaid with an ambiguous national policy related to nuclear energy and a decision-making context that struggles with multi-decade capital investments, raise key questions and present significant challenges to the economics of nuclear power in the evolving grid. Multiple factors could improve the economics of A-NPPs, including: (1) minimizing the need for active safety systems, (2) minimizing adoption of one-off reactor designs, (3) establishing policies that credit low carbon emitting technologies, and (4) integrating energy storage technologies that increase revenue and reduce costs through a combination of ancillary services, market hedging, and reduced costs via stable operation. This report focuses on Item (4), containing an overview, synthesis, and examination of energy storage options that could be integrated with nuclear generation. Figure 1 provides an overview of the 2015 energy mix by sector, which shows that NPPs are currently used exclusively for electricity generation that is ultimately consumed in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Some areas for NPP energy growth in the future include power generation for electrified transportation and thermal generation for storage and industrial applications. Currently, most industrial thermal energy users combust fossil resources (i.e., coal or natural gas) to meet the energy needs of the processes, but heat from nuclear operations could also be used in certain specific applications.

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Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

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Demonstration of External Hazards Analysis

This initial demonstration shows the capabilities of the baseline RISMC toolkit and better quantification of the safety margins of the analyzed nuclear power plant model.

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Plan to Verify and Validate Multi-Hazard Risk-Informed Margin Management Methods and Tools

This report describes the development plan for verification and validation (V&V) of multihazard risk informed margin management (RIMM) methods and tools. The plan will include using new INL developed tool sets coupled with the new multi-partner External Hazards Experimental Group (EHEG) coordinated by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) within the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) technical pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The RISMC pathway is developing a suite of new tools and methods for advanced evaluation of facility risk. The RISMC toolkit, includes tools and methods focused on evaluation of risk from external hazards (e.g, seismic and flooding events), which have been shown to be dominant risk contributors in probabilistic risk assessments performed for operating nuclear power plants (NPPs). The external events activity (EEA) within the RISMC pathway is tasked with developing tools and methods focused on evaluation of multi-hazard external risk (e.g, seismic and flooding events). The EHEG will provide technical expertise and experimental large-scale testing data needed for development and validation of tools and methods in the RISMC toolkit for external hazard safety evaluations. The EEA within RISMC has two key elements: (1) an organizational and research framework provided by INL and (2) a coordinated group of university and national laboratory partners with the complementary expertise and experimental capabilities needed to conduct large-scale external hazard-focused experiments. This cooperative group will allow INL to leverage a range of existing capabilities to meet the unique needs of RISMC tool and method development. In addition, the capabilities of the EHEG could be used to address needs of other national laboratories. Currently, there is limited data available for development and validation of the tools and methods being developed in the RISMC Toolkit. The EHEG is being developed to obtain high quality, large-scale experimental data validation of RISMC tools and methods in a timely and cost-effective way. The group of universities and national laboratories that will eventually form the EHEG (which is ultimately expected to include both the initial participants and other universities and national laboratories that have been identified) have the expertise and experimental capabilities needed to both obtain and compile existing data archives and perform additional seismic and flooding experiments. The data developed by EHEG will be stored in databases within RISMC. These databases will be used to validate the advanced external hazard tools and methods. The numerical tools under development in RISMC are used to evaluate the impacts that external hazards have on nuclear power plants. These analysis tools will be used to advanced current risk calculation processes and reduce uncertainty in these calculations. To have confidence in the predictive capability of these numerical tools it is important to verify and validate them. To verify and validate numerical tools the user must understand what physics is being used to represent the problem (i.e. constitutive models used to represent the soil and structure), the numerical solver approach used (i.e. finite element), what data already exists that could be used to validate the tools, and what data is needed for validation.

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Frequency- and Time-Domain Methods in Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis

Soil-structure interaction (SSI) analysis in the nuclear industry is currently performed using linear codes that function in the frequency domain. There is a consensus that these frequency-domain codes give reasonably accurate results for low-intensity ground motions that result in almost linear response. For higher intensity ground motions, which may result in nonlinear response in the soil, structure or at the vicinity of the foundation, the adequacy of frequency-domain codes is unproven. Nonlinear analysis, which is only possible in the time domain, is theoretically more appropriate in such cases. These methods are available but are rarely used due to the large computational requirements and a lack of experience with analysts and regulators. This paper presents an assessment of the linear frequency-domain code, SASSI, which is widely used in the nuclear industry, and the time-domain commercial finite-element code, LS-DYNA, for SSI analysis. The assessment involves benchmarking the SSI analysis procedure in LS-DYNA against SASSI for linearly elastic models. After affirming that SASSI and LS-DYNA result in almost identical responses for these models, they are used to perform nonlinear SSI analyses of two structures founded on soft soil. An examination of the results shows that, in spite of using identical material properties, the predictions of frequency- and time-domain codes are significantly different in the presence of nonlinear behavior such as gapping and sliding of the foundation.

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