Engineering topics

Conlisk, Erin

Publications and source records attributed to Conlisk, Erin.

3 records

DOE OSTI2022

Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the “firehose” of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data from: "Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers"

This archive contains data used to draw conclusions in “Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Cone collection and field experiments were conducted on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, with the latter completed within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE). Laboratory germination experiments were conducted at the University of California Merced. Geospatial files are also provided for additional geographical context.There are four data file formats in this package: comma-separated values (.csv), Microsoft Excel (.xlsx), keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefile (.shp). The latter two are geospatial file formats. .csv files can be opened using any simple text editor program such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows), and .xlsx files can be opened using Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets. The .kml file contains coordinate data, and is compatible with Google Earth and Google Maps. ESRI shapefiles (.shp) are compatible with any geospatial software able to read the file type, such as QGIS and ESRI’s ArcGIS Suite. This data user’s guide is available in as a .pdf, and can be opened using software such as Adobe Acrobat Reader.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. We tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We tracked germination rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Together these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest"

This data package contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Data were collected in field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), located on Niwot Ridge, on the eastern slope of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Files containing geospatial data are also included, to provide additional locational context.There are four document formats associated with this archive: three comma-separated values (.csv) files, three Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf data user’s guide, four keyhole markup language (.kml) files, and a compressed folder containing seven ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editor software, R, or Microsoft Excel. The .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .kml file can be opened by Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened with any GIS application compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS, and QGIS.We provide two versions of the seedling data file: “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20150522_20150525rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015) and “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20160408rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016). PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015 contains the data we used in the paper. PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016 contains an updated version of these data that includes sampling from later years. The main differences between the two files lie in the columns titled “k[YEAR],” which describe the number of seedlings that were killed in a particular year. In PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016, there also is an additional year of data for k2015, and k2014 also has additional data input for the 2014 cohort. Additionally, in years 2010-2014, there are minor differences in the number of seedlings killed -- in as few as 0 plots (in 2011) to as many as 5 plots (in 2014) -- due to errors in data input that were rectified in later years.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upslope range shifts by subalpine tree species are a widely anticipated effect of climate change. Climate niche models predict subalpine forests to expand upslope, given more suitable growing conditions for adult trees. However, these models do not take into account climates required for successful seedling recruitment and establishment, an essential element for expansion. Further, localized upper treeline populations are hypothesized to contain favorable traits for colonizing the alpine. To test these expectations and to expand our knowledge of seedling recruitment under climate change, we designed a common garden, climate-warming experiment spread across an elevation gradient at Niwot Ridge in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We focus on two widespread Western North American species, Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis James), which occur at treeline. While the former is considered a late-seral species more tolerant of shade, limber pine is a shade-intolerant pioneer species able to establish on infertile sites.Every autumn, seeds of the two species were collected from high- (3370 m–3570 m) and low-provenance (2910–3240 m) sources close to the experimental sites and sown in our plots. A subset of plots were heated and another subset watered over the summer months to offset the effects of warming. Across five years, we found that seeds originating from low elevation recruited more strongly for both species, although this provenance difference diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. Despite the recruitment of low-provenance seed, warming treatments decreased recruitment at all elevations. Combining this with the likeliness and availability of lower-quality, high provenance seed moving upslope at the treeline, tree migration into the alpine may be slowed. Overall, our findings suggest that the hardier limber pine is likely to become a more significant species in subalpine forest communities in the future, while the more sensitive Engelmann spruce may experience range contraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗