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Connell, Peter

Publications and source records attributed to Connell, Peter.

Modeling of Isotope Fractionation in Stratospheric CO2, N2O, CH4, and O3: Investigations of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport, Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange, and Their Influence on Global Isotope Budgets

Until recently, the stable isotopic composition of chemically and datively important stratospheric species, such as ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4), was largely unexplored, despite indications from the few measurements available and theoretical studies that global-scale isotopic variations will provide a unique tool for quantifying rates of global-scale mass transport into, within, and out of the stratosphere and for understanding the mechanisms of chemical reactions involved in ozone production. The number and geographical extent of observations are beginning to increase rapidly, however, as access to the stratosphere, both directly and by remote-sensing, has increased over the last 10 years and as new analytical techniques have been developed that make global-scale isotope measurements by whole-air sampling more feasible. The objective of this study, begun in April 1999, is to incorporate into the Livermore 2D model the likely photochemical fractionation processes that determine the isotopic compositions of stratospheric CO2, N2O, CH4, and O3, and to use the model results and new observations from NASA field campaigns in 1996 and 1997 to investigate stratospheric chemistry and mass transport. Additionally, since isotopic signatures from the stratosphere are transferred to the troposphere by downward transport at middle and high latitudes, the isotopic compositions may also serve as sensitive tracers of stratosphere-totroposphere transport. Comparisons of model results with stratospheric and upper tropospheric observations from these campaigns, as well as with ground-based observations from new NOAA and NSF-sponsored studies, will help determine whether the magnitudes of the stratospheric fractionation processes are large enough to use as global-scale tracers of transport into the troposphere and, if so, will be used to help constrain the degree of coupling between the troposphere and the stratosphere.

Boering, Kristie A.↗

Modeling of Isotope Fractionation in Stratospheric CO2, N2O, CH4, and O3: Investigations of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport, Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange, and Their Influence on Global Isotope Budgets

We investigated the isotopic fractionation of CH4 and hydrogen (H2) in the stratosphere by incorporating isotope-specific rate coefficients into the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) 2D model and comparing the model results with new observations from the NASA ER-2 aircraft (funded through a separate task under the Upper Atmosphere Research Program). The model results reveal that fractionation which occurs in the stratosphere has a significant influence on isotope compositions in the free troposphere, an important point which had previously been ignored, unrecognized or unquantified for many long-lived trace gases, including CH4 and H2 which we have focused our efforts on to date. Our analyses of the model results and new isotope observations have also been used to test how well the kinetic isotope effects are known, at least to within the uncertainties in model chemistry and transport. Overall, these results represent an important step forward in our understanding of isotope fractionation in the atmosphere and demonstrate that stratospheric isotope fractionation cannot be ignored in modeling studies which use isotope observations in the troposphere to infer the global budgets of CH4 (an important greenhouse gas) and of H2 (a gas whose atmospheric budget must be better quantified, particularly before a large human perturbation from fuel cell use is realized). Our analyses of model results and observations from the NASA ER-2 aircraft are briefly summarized separately below for CH4, H2, and H2O and for the contribution of these modeling studies to date to our understanding of isotope fractionation for N2O, CO2, and O3 as well.

Boering, Kristie A.↗

HSCT Assessment Calculations with the AER 2-D Model: Sensitivities to Transport Formulation, PSC Formulation, Interannual Temperature Variation

The summary are: (1) Some chemical differences in background atmosphere are surprisingly large (NOY). (2) Differences in model transport explain a majority of the intertnodel differences in the absence of PSCs. (3) With PSCS, large differences exist in predicted O3 depletion between models with the same transport. (4) AER/LLNL model calculates more O3 depletion in NH than LLNL. (5) AER/GSFC model cannot match calculated O3 depletion of GSFC model in SH. and (6) Results sensitive to interannual temperature variations (at least in NH).

Weisenstein, Debra K.↗

Ozone depletion and chlorine loading potentials

The recognition of the roles of chlorine and bromine compounds in ozone depletion has led to the regulation or their source gases. Some source gases are expected to be more damaging to the ozone layer than others, so that scientific guidance regarding their relative impacts is needed for regulatory purposes. Parameters used for this purpose include the steady-state and time-dependent chlorine loading potential (CLP) and the ozone depletion potential (ODP). Chlorine loading potentials depend upon the estimated value and accuracy of atmospheric lifetimes and are subject to significant (approximately 20-50 percent) uncertainties for many gases. Ozone depletion potentials depend on the same factors, as well as the evaluation of the release of reactive chlorine and bromine from each source gas and corresponding ozone destruction within the stratosphere.

Pyle, John A.↗