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Cotton, W. R.

Publications and source records attributed to Cotton, W. R..

Sea breeze: Induced mesoscale systems and severe weather

Sea-breeze-deep convective interactions over the Florida peninsula were investigated using a cloud/mesoscale numerical model. The objective was to gain a better understanding of sea-breeze and deep convective interactions over the Florida peninsula using a high resolution convectively explicit model and to use these results to evaluate convective parameterization schemes. A 3-D numerical investigation of Florida convection was completed. The Kuo and Fritsch-Chappell parameterization schemes are summarized and evaluated.

Nicholls, M. E.↗

A long-lived mesoscale convective complex. I - The mountain-generated component

The South Park Area Cumulus Experiment (SPACE) was conducted during the summer of 1977, and takes into account meteorological developments in a broad, elevated basin called South Park, which is located northeast of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The experiment was designed to investigate the organization of the mesoscale and storm-scale systems in detail over South Park. Many of the convective storms which were observed in the developing stages over South Park participated in the genesis of mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) on the meso-alpha-scale. The present investigation is concerned with the evolution of the second MCC of this episode, which matured on the evening of August 4, 1977. Attention is given to the events from the preconvective stage early on August 4 to the incipient MCC stage in the early evening.

Cotton, W. R.↗

A long-lived mesoscale convective complex. II - Evolution and structure of the mature complex

The present investigation is concerned with an eight-day episode, during which a series of mesoscale convective complexes (MCC) developed and moved across the country, producing heavy rain and some flooding over an extensive region. An overview of the considered period from August 3 to August 10, 1977 is presented, and the evolution of the August 4 storm is examined. The structure of the mature MCC is discussed, taking into account the August 4-5 storm, a comparative case involving the August 3-4 storm, and an evaluation of the observed phenomena. It is concluded that MCCs are basically tropical in nature and that their dynamics are dominated by buoyant accelerations. It was found that the MCCs developed a warm-core, divergent anticyclonic flow pattern in the upper troposphere which was not present prior to the development of convection. A similar structure is observed in tropical cloud clusters.

Wetzel, P. J.↗

Evaluation and development of satellite inferences of convective storm intensity using combined case study and thunderstorm model simulations

Observational requirements for predicting convective storm development and intensity as suggested by recent numerical experiments are examined. Recent 3D numerical experiments are interpreted with regard to the relationship between overshooting tops and surface wind gusts. The development of software for emulating satellite inferred cloud properties using 3D cloud model predicted data and the simulation of Heymsfield (1981) Northern Illinois storm are described as well as the development of a conceptual/semi-quantitative model of eastward propagating, mesoscale convective complexes forming to the lee of the Rocky Mountains.

Cotton, W. R.↗

An intense, quasi-steady thunderstorm over mountainous terrain. I - Evolution of the storm-initiating mesoscale circulation

The evolution of mesoscale systems that eventually lead to the formation of large quasi-steady storm systems is investigated. The morphological and turbulent structure of the quasi-steady storm is described. Data obtained during the South Park Area Cumulus Experiment from surface meteorological stations, rawinsondes and tethered balloons, conventional and Doppler radars, powered aircraft, and satellites, indicate that on July 19, 1977, a north-south oriented line of intense convective cells formed and remained within South Park. Elevated surface heating created a region of low-level convergence, importing Pacific moisture from west of the Rockies. The mesoscale thunderstorm line formed over this convergence zone, and a single large convective cell was observed to grow on the southern end of the mesoscale line, exhibiting supercell characteristics and substantial modifications of the environmental flow.

Cotton, W. R.↗

An intense, quasi-steady thunderstorm over mountainous terrain. II - Doppler radar observations of the storm morphological structure

The morphological characteristics of mean storm-scale airflow patterns of an intense quasi-steady storm formed in South Park, Colorado are described. Vertical transport of northerly low-level momentum within the updraft imparted a significant blocking on mid-level flow with southerly momentum. The blocking affected the movement and characteristics of adjacent, less organized storms, and additional storm-environment interactions produced an organized recirculation of precipitation particles from the mid-level updraft to the low-level updraft. The steadiness of the storm is found to have depended on the introduction of low-level flow directed opposite to mid-level flow, and on the formation of persistent downdrafts of sufficient magnitude to sustain an active gust front.

Knupp, K. R.↗

An intense, quasi-steady thunderstorm over mountainous terrain. III - Doppler radar observations of the turbulent structure

The evolution of the turbulent structure of the intense, quasi-steady thunderstorm that occurred on July 19, 1977, over South Park, Colorado, is examined. Doppler radar estimates of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates and radial shears of raw radial velocity are used, and a comparison is made between turbulent patterns and mean storm airflow. Turbulent intensity and activity peaked at mid to upper storm levels, and the primary storm updraft was almost turbulence-free at low levels. It is suggested that buoyancy and wind shear acted together to generate turbulent eddies at middle storm levels, and at mid to upper levels, maximum estimated dissipation rate estimates approached 0.15 sq m/cu s.

Knupp, K. R.↗

Characteristics of downdrafts and turbulence within thunderstorms

Triple Doppler radar observations are presented of downdrafts and turbulence within three convective cloud systems that formed over the South Park region of central Colorado. Downdrafts and turbulence are treated together here because of the relationship suggested by the fact that both can be produced by the mixing of cloudy and dry environmental air. What is more, overlays of estimated turbulent kinetic energy dissipation on general flow patterns yield additional information (including the locations of entrainment) on circulations within convective clouds. The relationship between downdrafts and turbulence is established, and examples are presented of weak to moderate downdrafts and turbulence within three convective storms. The differences in downdraft strength and turbulence intensity in the three cases examined are analyzed.

Knupp, K. R.↗

Evaluation and development of satellite inferences of convective storm intensity using combined case study analysis and thunderstorm model simulations

Major research accomplishments which were achieved during the first year of the grant are summarized. The research concentrated in the following areas: (1) an examination of observational requirements for predicting convective storm development and intensity as suggested by recent numerical experiments; (2) interpretation of recent 3D numerical experiments with regard to the relationship between overshooting tops and surface wind gusts; (3) the development of software for emulating satellite-inferred cloud properties using 3D cloud model predicted data; and (4) the development of a conceptual/semi-quantitative model of eastward propagating, mesoscale convective complexes forming to the lee of the Rocky Mountains.

Cotton, W. R.↗

Doppler radar observations of the three-dimensional turbulent structure of a quasi-steady thunderstorm

The spatial patterns and temporal evolution of Doppler radar-inferred turbulence within a quasi-steady, left-moving thunderstorm are reported. An organized downdraft circulation was observed, which maintained a persistent, continuously-propagating, anticyclonic and turbulent updraft. The updrafts attained peak speeds of 25 m/s, and maximum estimated reflectivity factors exhibited peak magnitudes of 50-55 dBZ. Mechanical and buoyant production appeared to be the primary generators of turbulence, although buoyancy generation may have also significantly contributed, since turbulent and dynamic entrainment into the vertically accelerating updraft was appreciable below the strongest turbulent activity at 7 km. Patterns of the radial shears of radial velocity exhibited a significant decrease in strength and areal coverage as the storm weakened, which is attributed to decreased activity of large turbulent eddies and the diminution of large-scale mean wind gradients produced by vertical exchanges of horizontal momentum and strong updraft gradients.

Knupp, K. R.↗

Studies of satellite support to weather modification in the western US region

The applications of meteorological satellite data to both summer and winter weather modification programs are addressed. Appraisals of the capability of satellites to assess seedability, to provide real-time operational support, and to assist in the post-experiment analysis of a seeding experiment led to the incorporation of satellite observing systems as a major component in the Bureau of Reclamations weather modification activities. Satellite observations are an integral part of the South Park Area cumulus experiment (SPACE) which aims to formulate a quantitative hypothesis for enhancing precipitation from orographically induced summertime mesoscale convective systems (orogenic mesoscale systems). Progress is reported in using satellite observations to assist in classifying the important mesoscale systems, and in defining their frequency and coverage, and potential area of effect. Satellite studies of severe storms are also covered.

Cotton, W. R.↗

Air turbulence measurements in and below cumulus congestus over mountainous terrain

Consideration is given to the definition and application to air turbulence measurements over mountainous terrain of the ensemble averaging operator in the second-order turbulent transfer model of moist, precipitating mesoscale systems developed by Manton and Cotton (1977) as a first step in the formulation of a unified mesoscale turbulence theory. The use of running means to smooth out point-to-point data variability is proposed as a means of avoiding certain of the problems associated with ensemble averaging, and is applied to airborne velocity measurements in cumulus congestus over South Park, Colorado. It is found that, in general, vertical transport of any cloud parameter will be primarily eddy transport in the mesoscale modeling of cloud processes.

Cotton, W. R.↗

The characteristics of evolving mesoscale systems over mountainous terrain as revealed by radar and PAM

The paper deals with measurements made within the South Park area (which is located near Denver, Colorado, and is a natural genesis area for cumulus clouds) in July and August 1977, using powered aircraft, sailplanes, rawinsondes, boundary layer profilers, acoustic sounders, micrometeorological towers, lidar, research radar, triple-Doppler radar, and a square grid of surface meteorological stations. Extensive analysis revealed a very complex picture of thunderstorm-scale, large-mesoscale, and synoptic-scale interactions.

George, R. L.↗

The evolution of cumulonimbus systems in relation to low-level thermally-driven mesoscale systems

The importance of extra-storm scale mesoscale systems to the genesis and propagation of cumulonimbus systems is discussed, with the primary role of the mesoscale systems viewed as the initiator of cumulonimbus convection. It is demonstrated that thermally driven mesoscale systems such as the Florida sea breeze and Colorado ridge/valley circulations play an important role in the genesis, organization, and intensity of cumulonimbus systems. In the case of the Colorado ridge/valley circulation, however, the importance of the circulation to the genesis and propagation of severe storm systems over the Western Great Plains still remains to be demonstrated.

Cotton, W. R.↗